meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!
#91
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!
Originally Posted by planty
How cool is that? Just been playing with the charts on HIFX, I had no idea you do that, I hadn't realised that the $ had been over 3.60 before.
One question came from this: Money traders buy money of all currencies, so do they have to have bank accounts in all the countries they buy money in? Or is there some sort of holding pot, until they are ready to sell?
Ok it was two questions, but they could become endless.
One question came from this: Money traders buy money of all currencies, so do they have to have bank accounts in all the countries they buy money in? Or is there some sort of holding pot, until they are ready to sell?
Ok it was two questions, but they could become endless.
BUT you can have a currency account in any denomination . The days trading (profit or loss) is cleared against your account each trading day based on whatever the exchange rate is of the currency(s) you were trading and the currency your account is denominated in. Therefore no separate bank accounts required.
You can open a currency trading account with as little as US$500 and leverage of 100:1, ie US$500 controls trading to the value of US$50000. Most brokers have continuous margin monitoring AND have account cutoffs so you cannot lose more money than you put in. Therefore your currency account cannot bankrupt you like say writing(selling) options on stocks or stock indices can!!!
Dave
#92
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!
Originally Posted by Paladin
Normally currency trading held in a dealer/broker account(AND preferably in a Client Segregated Funds Account so your money is safe if the dealer goes bust!!!), most commonly denominated in US$ or one of the other "majors"(pounds sterling, yen, euro),
BUT you can have a currency account in any denomination . The days trading (profit or loss) is cleared against your account each trading day based on whatever the exchange rate is of the currency(s) you were trading and the currency your account is denominated in. Therefore no separate bank accounts required.
You can open a currency trading account with as little as US$500 and leverage of 100:1, ie US$500 controls trading to the value of US$50000. Most brokers have continuous margin monitoring AND have account cutoffs so you cannot lose more money than you put in. Therefore your currency account cannot bankrupt you like say writing(selling) options on stocks or stock indices can!!!
Dave
BUT you can have a currency account in any denomination . The days trading (profit or loss) is cleared against your account each trading day based on whatever the exchange rate is of the currency(s) you were trading and the currency your account is denominated in. Therefore no separate bank accounts required.
You can open a currency trading account with as little as US$500 and leverage of 100:1, ie US$500 controls trading to the value of US$50000. Most brokers have continuous margin monitoring AND have account cutoffs so you cannot lose more money than you put in. Therefore your currency account cannot bankrupt you like say writing(selling) options on stocks or stock indices can!!!
Dave
#93
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!
Originally Posted by planty
Now that is interesting, is this something you set up with say HIFX?
What you want is as I said above.
As an example, have a look at www.cbfx.com; I like them alot(there are other good ones too, fx solutions www.fxsol.com, for example). They are a market maker, operate in US$, hold client funds in segregated accounts, have an excellent trading platform for clients to place trades on and are connected to IT Finance charting which offer free live charting with extensive charting tools(most importantly the data on IT Finance charts comes from cbfx's data feed so is in sync with the cbfx trading platform...a must!!!).
You can have a demo account without opening an account at cbfx so can play around in the currency markets without risking real money... great fun and a good way to learn!!
Apart from that you need good training in how to trade currencies... but that's another subject!!!
Dave
Last edited by Paladin; May 17th 2006 at 2:02 pm.
#94
Forum Regular
Joined: Feb 2005
Location: West Midlands, UK
Posts: 60
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!
Originally Posted by Tubbs
Well there are certainly many signs that the NZD will keep falling (not that I'm in Dave's or "The Bears" category of expertise!)
With this in mind we do have one major problem that is causing us to have second thoughts about the move. We will have to make pretty substantial payments in £'s to the UK every month (we'll also be on much less income initially as we'll be living on one income). Money obviously isn't everything which is why we're going, lifestyle etc. In the short term we obviously have a problem. But what about the long term? Are there any options? E.g. setting up Forward contracts once/if the NZD strengthens (we're talking about over £1000 p.m.)
Thanks
Janet
With this in mind we do have one major problem that is causing us to have second thoughts about the move. We will have to make pretty substantial payments in £'s to the UK every month (we'll also be on much less income initially as we'll be living on one income). Money obviously isn't everything which is why we're going, lifestyle etc. In the short term we obviously have a problem. But what about the long term? Are there any options? E.g. setting up Forward contracts once/if the NZD strengthens (we're talking about over £1000 p.m.)
Thanks
Janet
If you don't mind me saying... £1000 a month back to the UK could be a heck of a commitment on a single NZ salary... If it is for business purposes (or mortgage on rental prop) you should try to claim it as an expense against your NZ taxable income.
Alan.
#95
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!
FYI: GBP/NZD Update:
The charts are now showing a confirmed triangle consolidation pattern on the 4 hour/1 hour charts. This is a bullish consolidation pattern which should see the market break out to the upside! If this does happen the first target is the height of the traingle($3.0600-$2.9941 = $0.0659 added to the breakout point. It looks like the breakout from the triangle will be around the $3.03 ish level so if it does happen the price should rise to approx $3.03 + $0.0659 = $3.09659; ie approx the $3.10 target I have previously mentioned.
Will keep you posted!!
Dave
The charts are now showing a confirmed triangle consolidation pattern on the 4 hour/1 hour charts. This is a bullish consolidation pattern which should see the market break out to the upside! If this does happen the first target is the height of the traingle($3.0600-$2.9941 = $0.0659 added to the breakout point. It looks like the breakout from the triangle will be around the $3.03 ish level so if it does happen the price should rise to approx $3.03 + $0.0659 = $3.09659; ie approx the $3.10 target I have previously mentioned.
Will keep you posted!!
Dave
#96
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2006
Location: Perth since 1997
Posts: 590
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou
Originally Posted by Paladin
FYI: GBP/NZD Update:
The charts are now showing a confirmed triangle consolidation pattern on the 4 hour/1 hour charts. This is a bullish consolidation pattern which should see the market break out to the upside! If this does happen the first target is the height of the traingle($3.0600-$2.9941 = $0.0659 added to the breakout point. It looks like the breakout from the triangle will be around the $3.03 ish level so if it does happen the price should rise to approx $3.03 + $0.0659 = $3.09659; ie approx the $3.10 target I have previously mentioned.
Will keep you posted!!
Dave
The charts are now showing a confirmed triangle consolidation pattern on the 4 hour/1 hour charts. This is a bullish consolidation pattern which should see the market break out to the upside! If this does happen the first target is the height of the traingle($3.0600-$2.9941 = $0.0659 added to the breakout point. It looks like the breakout from the triangle will be around the $3.03 ish level so if it does happen the price should rise to approx $3.03 + $0.0659 = $3.09659; ie approx the $3.10 target I have previously mentioned.
Will keep you posted!!
Dave
thanks so much for your postings, very interesting, I've found another game to play on the computer ...
try to keep it simple that the average brain can follow you, thanks again.
cheers
Evelin
#97
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou
Originally Posted by Evelin
thanks so much for your postings, very interesting, I've found another game to play on the computer ...
try to keep it simple that the average brain can follow you, thanks again.
cheers
Evelin
try to keep it simple that the average brain can follow you, thanks again.
cheers
Evelin
Am trying to keep it simple, where possible!! Honest!!
There are some active members that are actually interested in the more technical aspects. In fact I hope that posting some of the technical info helps them see my reasoning for posting a specific target rate, and hey maybe those interested might learn something new... never a bad thing!
I'll try to add a one line summary to the more technical currency posts so those wanting the "straight skinny" can read down to it!!!
Dave
#98
Just Joined
Joined: Apr 2006
Location: Yorkshire to Hamilton
Posts: 12
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou
Originally Posted by Paladin
Cheers Evelin,
Am trying to keep it simple, where possible!! Honest!!
There are some active members that are actually interested in the more technical aspects. In fact I hope that posting some of the technical info helps them see my reasoning for posting a specific target rate, and hey maybe those interested might learn something new... never a bad thing!
I'll try to add a one line summary to the more technical currency posts so those wanting the "straight skinny" can read down to it!!!
Dave
Am trying to keep it simple, where possible!! Honest!!
There are some active members that are actually interested in the more technical aspects. In fact I hope that posting some of the technical info helps them see my reasoning for posting a specific target rate, and hey maybe those interested might learn something new... never a bad thing!
I'll try to add a one line summary to the more technical currency posts so those wanting the "straight skinny" can read down to it!!!
Dave
Where are you, i am lost in my analysis of the exchange rate saga without you. Does anyone else out there feel the same. I vote BRING BACK DAVE.
Seriously mate it would be greatly be appreciated if you could keep us informed . The rate has fluctuated up and down over the last few days between 3.05 and 2.98 yesterday. It is back up today to 3.01.
Do you feel the rate will stay, go up or down over the next few months.?
I know you cant predict the future but your guess is worth far more than mine.
#99
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the grou
Originally Posted by lmw999
Hi Dave ,
Where are you, i am lost in my analysis of the exchange rate saga without you. Does anyone else out there feel the same. I vote BRING BACK DAVE.
Seriously mate it would be greatly be appreciated if you could keep us informed . The rate has fluctuated up and down over the last few days between 3.05 and 2.98 yesterday. It is back up today to 3.01.
Do you feel the rate will stay, go up or down over the next few months.?
I know you cant predict the future but your guess is worth far more than mine.
Where are you, i am lost in my analysis of the exchange rate saga without you. Does anyone else out there feel the same. I vote BRING BACK DAVE.
Seriously mate it would be greatly be appreciated if you could keep us informed . The rate has fluctuated up and down over the last few days between 3.05 and 2.98 yesterday. It is back up today to 3.01.
Do you feel the rate will stay, go up or down over the next few months.?
I know you cant predict the future but your guess is worth far more than mine.
I'm often off teaching diving Sunday & Mondays and have my work to do too you know!!
GBP/NZD Update:
Just a quick update; although there was an upside breakout of the triangle consolidation yielding a target of $3.10 ish, we have not yet seen the solid break of the $3.06 that I stated we needed to see(see page 6 of this thread). It appears we are seeing more consolidation and the area of support I previously mentioned(see page 6 again) around $2.97-3.00 is holding, with $3.06 being an area of resistance, ie we're range bound for the moment!
The possible negative divergence of the MACD indicator on the daily chart still isn't confirmed yet either. If this does get confirmed, THEN I would expect a fall back to $2.91 area. Will let you know!
I'm not concerned yet!!
Dave
Last edited by Paladin; May 24th 2006 at 9:41 am.
#100
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 3,038
meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!
!!dnuorg eht tih lliw ti snoitciderp llafeerf ni rallod ZN wwwwwwwwoeeeeeeem
Going the other way now.............
Going the other way now.............
#101
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!
Originally Posted by Nice Guy
!!dnuorg eht tih lliw ti snoitciderp llafeerf ni rallod ZN wwwwwwwwoeeeeeeem
Going the other way now.............
Going the other way now.............
#102
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!
Originally Posted by Nice Guy
!!dnuorg eht tih lliw ti snoitciderp llafeerf ni rallod ZN wwwwwwwwoeeeeeeem
Going the other way now.............
Going the other way now.............
???!!!ebyaM
On the daily chart the negative divergence on MACD indicator WAS confirmed yesterday, BUT.....
As previously stated there is major support at the prior high on March 28/29th at $2.9088/2.9091. There's also support at $2.91 on the daily chart from the interim trend line running under the lows from Feb to April AND support from the 40 day Exponential Moving Average(EMA) at $2.92.
All we may be seeing is a natural breather in the uptrend as speculators take profits, BUT a daily close under $2.90 WOULD certainly worry me!! That would signal a likely drop further to $2.80 or so.
The long term full trend line supporting this whole uptrend is down at $2.80ish !!!!! A 38.2% Fibonnacci Retracement would be around $2.81 too!!
(For those feeling particularly bearish the 200 EMA is around $2.70ish and a 61.8% Fibonnacci retracement is around $2.65ish!!!!!!) :scared:
Hopefully those people looking to exchange currency have utilized some forward contracts (for at least part of their money!) at/near the MAJOR price targets of $3.00 and $3.06 that I previously projected!!!
Last edited by Paladin; May 25th 2006 at 9:04 am.
#103
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!
Originally Posted by Paladin
???!!!ebyaM
On the daily chart the negative divergence on MACD indicator WAS confirmed yesterday, BUT.....
As previously stated there is major support at the prior high on March 28/29th at $2.9088/2.9091. There's also support at $2.91 on the daily chart from the interim trend line running under the lows from Feb to April AND support from the 40 day Exponential Moving Average(EMA) at $2.92.
All we may be seeing is a natural breather in the uptrend as speculators take profits, BUT a daily close under $2.90 WOULD certainly worry me!! That would signal a likely drop further to $2.80 or so.
The long term full trend line supporting this whole uptrend is down at $2.80ish !!!!! A 38.2% Fibonnacci Retracement would be around $2.81 too!!
(For those feeling particularly bearish the 200 EMA is around $2.70ish and a 61.8% Fibonnacci retracement is around $2.65ish!!!!!!) :scared:
Hopefully those people looking to exchange currency have utilized some forward contracts (for at least part of their money!) at/near the MAJOR price targets of $3.00 and $3.06 that I previously projected!!!
On the daily chart the negative divergence on MACD indicator WAS confirmed yesterday, BUT.....
As previously stated there is major support at the prior high on March 28/29th at $2.9088/2.9091. There's also support at $2.91 on the daily chart from the interim trend line running under the lows from Feb to April AND support from the 40 day Exponential Moving Average(EMA) at $2.92.
All we may be seeing is a natural breather in the uptrend as speculators take profits, BUT a daily close under $2.90 WOULD certainly worry me!! That would signal a likely drop further to $2.80 or so.
The long term full trend line supporting this whole uptrend is down at $2.80ish !!!!! A 38.2% Fibonnacci Retracement would be around $2.81 too!!
(For those feeling particularly bearish the 200 EMA is around $2.70ish and a 61.8% Fibonnacci retracement is around $2.65ish!!!!!!) :scared:
Hopefully those people looking to exchange currency have utilized some forward contracts (for at least part of their money!) at/near the MAJOR price targets of $3.00 and $3.06 that I previously projected!!!
You'll get more NZ$ to the £ soon
or
You'll get less.
??
#104
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!
Originally Posted by Biddy
I'm sure there's got to be an easy way to say all this:
You'll get more NZ$ to the £ soon
or
You'll get less.
??
You'll get more NZ$ to the £ soon
or
You'll get less.
??
Dave
#105
Forum Regular
Joined: May 2006
Location: Reading UK
Posts: 49
Re: meeeeeeeowwwwwwww NZ dollar in freefall predictions of where it will hit the ground!!
Originally Posted by Paladin
Sounds about right!!!
Dave
Dave
Hi Dave, I've just joined as a member but have been reading your comments regarding the NZD for a while now with great interest.
I'm originally from NZ but have been living in the UK for 11 years now. Myself and my english partner are looking at a move back to NZ in Jan 07 - so about 8 months from now.
I understand predicting the future currency rates is very hard and there are many variables that influence it.
However, do you have any longer term predictions on the GBP/NZD rate - maybe with a view toward the end of the year?
We had to send money to NZ a few months ago for a house build and the rate was early 2.5's - so we'd be very happy if it got up to 3.20+ in December or Jan when we will be looking to send the bulk of our money to NZ when we move.
Thanks Dave, like I said, enjoy reading your posts on this subject
Dave.