BEVS

Let's talk the future of the Kiwi economy.

There is no doubt that people and families should come before the mighty $ in my mind.

However, what will be the impact of the good hard , go early ; if there is actually any impact overall had there been a go later , go longer.

Justcol

It'll all bounce back eventually, it always does 👍

Clappy

It will be interesting to be able to do the comparison in a few months time against the places that are keeping their economies going for longer - like the UK and the USA to see how that pans out.

The go hard , go early approach will keep more of us alive and let us return to our daily lives within our 'national bubble' quickest. But without the incoming tourists and international students and exporters unable to sell I doubt the money will last very long - then we will have another problem.

Perhaps it is time to learn from the Maori how to manage an economy that does not involve money?

Charismatic

I've seen the projections by treasury but they are only guess work. We will have to live with a high unemployment rate for some time, though probably not as high as major economies like the US and UK. One thing to remember is that many of the people now claiming benefits are actually skilled employees and so when the employment market recovers may well fill positions rather rapidly.

My personal view is that we should think about all the projects that we could now do to soak up labor from improving transport infrastructure around major cities to starting Kiwibuild. A sort of Kiwi new deal if you like.

Similarly we've been moaning for years about a lack of key skills (e.g. STEM, IT etc.) and could now make some university courses free to close those gaps.

jarv5116

I think NZ is in desperate need of a reset.
Never seen such a false housing market ever.
I thought the 2008 prices in UK and US was bad till I come here this is on a different level.
You just have to look at the economy and costs something is going to have to give somewhere.

Over the next year or 18 months with no tourism it's going be bad times. You just need go in Auckland centre. 90% of the people in pubs and restraunts are foreigners. You go to places like Rotoroa or Taupo it's 100%. I don't know how most of the shops and small businesses are going ever get through it. it won't be as bad for small business in the suburbs after the lockdown it will be back to normality well of some kind.
All the jobs lost at airports and travel industry is going be big one aswell. it's not just Air NZ jobs it's everyone involved aviation industry.

I don't know what state the construction industry is going be in after a year like this. it's going be hard time for everyone in the construction industry. All the companies will have lost at least 4 weeks revenue. People think aw yeah but construction companies are getting the wage subsidy. it's only a small cost.
Everything else still has to be paid with no incoming. the industry only runs on a 2-3% profit margins. it's not like making a loss on one job it's every job. Then companies that where planning to extend or grow this year will probably put work on hold due to the uncertainty. It's going be bad times.

They reckon 26% unemployment rate over the next year.
It going cost alot.

Bo-Jangles

I think there's a lot that can be done to generate some internal tourism, most of us would welcome a wee break out of town without the hordes of tourists if the price was right. There must be a million camper vans, Air BnBs and Hotel rooms sitting idle but largely out of reach in terms of cost for most of us. Unlikely any of us will be leaving the country for the next twelve months and with no overseas visitors coming in they may as well let us use the facilities. Bags not to have the ones they used to quarantine returning Covid-19 suspects though.

No doubt a lot will change, businesses are already adapting and there will be a lot of empty offices as a lot of people I bet will continue to work from home or find alternate ways to make money.

Most of the 'foreigners' in Auckland centre are language students and likely their studies will continue in some form via online formats; it will be interesting to see how that goes as I expect a lot would still like to get out of China and elsewhere in the world as a flight to relative safety in NZ and could still continue to a large extent for long term visitors / students if they are quarantined for 14 days on arrival.

I read today they they are relaxing the rules for people already in the country with work visas, so that they may extend their stay and or take up other work, or move to other areas if they lose their jobs. I guess therefore that we still will rely on foreign labour to fill certain roles and government will invest in building infrastructure and such like to keep people in jobs and put some money into the economy.

LittleGreyCat

Going to make immigration interesting if there is high unemployment.

jarv5116

Its a catch 22.
They need the skilled workers as NZ doest have enough for the demand. But then high immigration when high in employment is no good.
Maybe need to invest in training new Kiwi workforce. Only problem is it takes time.

LittleGreyCat

I was thinking more that if the local economy tanks then the demand for skilled workers to service that economy tanks.
In which case there could suddenly be enough skilled workers to meet short term demand.