Genesis

Well, what do you lot reckon? I think it is a possibility what with China's slow down affecting Oz and what with the issues surrounding europe. What is the gut feeling of anyone else with any interest in this issue.

southerner

At work the considered view is that a breakdown or restructuring of the Euro currency will mean a rapid weakening of the NZ dollar, particularly against US but also against most of the 'crosses'. Your guess is as good as mine on how likely the Euro is to survive, but have heard some convincing arguments it is a slow train wreck that really cannot be stopped.

whitesand

I agree, think the Euro is on its way out. Thank goodness Britain is not tied to it. And, if the Euro goes then it will affect the Kiwi dollar and hence the exchange rate. Don't really care any more about that though.

Genesis

Very interesting comments. I am convinced there is a change in the air. There is so much going on at the moment to redress the imbalance of the kiwi's value. If it does happen I think it will be of huge benefit to the country as a whole. You will find a lot of kiwis who we need will return home if the currency goes in their favour and it will help exporters too. As for importing stuff that is the area where there may be the downside for kiwi people but apart from flat screen TVs being cheaper where in God's name have we really benefited as a nation with a high kiwi $$ and imports????? Certainly NOT fuel!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

southerner

I think that NZD fair value will likely settle in a range higher than what we once thought was normal. The fact is that US, European and UK economies have taken a bigger hit than NZ, and the world has turned back in favour of those countries that produce food, commodities or competitively priced manufactured goods. It is almost like in the 50s, when NZ was one of the strongest performing economies in the world (as was the US when it was at the time the best manufacturer and biggest net food exporter).

I would say 65-70c is a good average value for the NZD going forward, and let's say $2.70 against the pound. If you see $3 against the pound I would fill your boots because I don't think it will last. Just my humble opinion of course.

Genesis

Do you really think it could return to $2.70???? If so what time frame would you put on it? It would change our fiscal fortunes hugely. If it EVER got to the heady heights of $2.50 it would be my wildest (forex) dream. But $2.70?????????? I see us being lucky..really lucky getting 2.25 for the forseeable future but my glass is soooooooooooooooooooooooooooo half full when it comes to this issue.

simonmarkellis

What do you see as the timeframe?

southerner

The kiwi weakening against US could happen any day, or could take a while. There are plenty of examples of the NZD dropping 10-15us cents very quickly.

On the pound side, it all depends on what the impact of EU problems is on UK economy. I'm not particularly close to the UK situation, but gather a good bit of news seems to be generally followed by a bigger piece of bad news.

Like I have said before currencies are very fickle and I would not like to be sitting there with my money at stake, trying to pick which way they will go. But at work we're thinking there might be a swing to a lower NZD, so are ready if that happens.

whitesand

I think you're right there Genesis about the high Kiwi dollar not benefitting many. All it has done is make exports expensive, nearly killed tourism and stopped many migrants from bringing their cash over to spend here. Good on Cameron for standing up to the Brussels gravy-train and looking out for Britain. It's time someone did!

Genesis

It amazes me that we have not seen RBNZ intervention, they've done it a couple of time before. And that was when it was no where as bad as this. Not only does it REALLY hurt tourism and exports its also a job loser as NZ firms exporting go under or slow down and lay off people.

It makes more of our 'clever' people think 'bloody hell' its a really good time to do one as my kiwi is worth sooooooo much elsewhere' and finally it stops all those other clever kiwis (that we want and need who are in the UK and elsewhere who want to return to NZ) from returning back to NZ.

It also surely makes some emigrees think 'now is not the time' (and again those people that we want and need) stay where they are So it's a great big, fat lose, lose, lose all round

Genesis

Alas if you believe Roger J Kerr (one of our fiscal analysts) he reckons the kiwi is in for a bouyant time in the near to medium future. Commodity price outlook is favourable, interest rates in NZ will rise mid next year (apparently to keep a check on the potential for inflation) which will only further push the kiwi up. Is it just me or can no one who has any power over these things see that cheap flat screen TVs are the only real benefit to NZ with such an over valued currency??

As our currency is so volatile it is traded alot. This makes business very hard for exporters. Apparently 'pegging' your currency to another major one is a thing to do to stop volatility. When was a highly volatile currency any good to anyone other than John Key and his mates?

simonsi

I hope they don't. The speculators are working their way across Europe, making money off any defended position such as bond/exch rates etc etc. As/if they get to France/Germany then those positions will be defended more strongly than say Greece (as they have more to lose), so there is more money to be made.

Any Govt worldwide that signals it will defend any such position is effectively saying "come and take money off us".

Remember Black Wed when the UK crashed out of the ERM? Currency traders made billions off the Govt essentially defending the exch rate (which was the whole point of the ERM thus well signaled in advance), with ludicrous interest rates.

As Maggie said, you can't buck the market.