marblep

Anyone thinking about buying in the next few months, take your time. Prices are slowing.

davros1984

As much as I want to believe you, I am not sure I do.
This article is why:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/residentia...ectid=10914144

A crash will eventually happen as prices are way beyond the affordability of 95% of the population. I now compare NZ to how the UK was in 2008 and Ireland (which was even worse). The difference here of course is that the government don't do anything which impedes the rich investors and landlords.

jmh

Can I remind people that we are talking about Auckland here. I've been looking outside of Auckland and there are plenty of good-sized houses with a bit of land that are very affordable. Some have been on the market a while, and have listed prices. If, however, you must live in Epsom, then you might be disappointed.

davros1984

Your point is a valid one. If you are looking outside of Auckland, Wellington (to a point) and perhaps CHCH you'll have no problems.

You are assuming of course that people can get jobs outside of these places. The sad truth is that the government is focusing most of its effort into making Auckland a super city. Thus the vast majority of jobs and what not are there, thus most end up having to live there for work.

You also assume that living outside of Auckland and commuting in is an option. Yes it is, so long as you are happy to spend 2 hours each way commuting. I have considered moving to Hamilton to buy an affordable house, but then I'd have at least a 2-hour commute each way to work. In my opinion that is no way to live.

As for Epsom, well I think its an overcrowded dive and I wouldn't live there. Its not just Epsom though that is experiencing sky high house prices. Its out West, its supposedly cheaper areas on the shore such as Glenfield. Heck even Torbay which is a good hour's commute into the city (if you're lucky) has had similar issues. We went and looked at some new houses up in Silverdale, they were starting at 780K NZD.

You need to be at least a good hour and a hour and a half out of the city before you start to see prices drop significantly. An affordable house to me is anything that is under 400K NZD. Anything over that is a rip off for these wooden shacks.

jmh

You probably wouldn't have got a house for under $400K within a short commute of the CBD even before the heating up of the market, but there are plenty out my way if you're interested and it's only an hour to commute to the CBD. Of course not everyone needs to work in the CBD fortunately.

Catchafire

Well I am out in the provinces. $400K will buy you a flippin good house here in Marlborough.

It also has NZ's lowest unemployment rate.

It is dominated by the wine industry, but plenty of scope for people in marketing, IT, health, engineering, trades, sales etc. It not all about picking grapes.

Its another world and way of life compared to Auckland.

davros1984

where is your way? where I am now, properties have CVS of less than 400k but they are all selling at auction for double that or more.

davros1984

I personally would love to live somewhere like that. I will check out the IT market, but I suspect like Dunedin, there are slim pickings.

scrubbedexpat094

Tis cheaper on the Whangaparaoa Peninsula Davros. But of course there's the commute. As well as the car there's the ferry & the bus.

I was gobsmacked at the prices in Silverdale too....crazy.

moonie2011

Oh I wish...we are as far out of Wellington that a sensible commute allows and we are looking up to $500k, not a lot out there

Will keep looking

Dumbo

South Auckland? Yuck! How terribly brave of you.

Woodlea

Dubai? How terribly brave of you

jmh

Plenty of reasonably-priced houses in leafy green suburbs near to good transport links. It astonishes me that Brits will pay a fortune to rent a cardboard box in Takapuna or somewhere else on the shore when you could get a well-made 4 bed house in nice area somewhere else in Auckland for the same price.

What also amuses me is how people move from grotsville in the UK and are then upset that they can't afford a nice family home in the best parts of Auckland.

I've been thinking about building a house and there is a lot of new land opening up down here. Some good-priced lifestyle blocks within a commuting distance of the CBD. Build a brand new house to your own spec.

ExKiwilass

But..if you're moving all that way and spending big $$ and leaving so much behind, doesn't it kind of make sense they'd want to move "up" the housing ladder to make it worthwhile? Or am I being too kind?

Charismatic

House price to income ratio:
New Zealand (current): 5
Ireland (2005-2007): 7.4

My view is this still has time to run before a crash, we have very low interest rates to fuel this and little change in supply.

The worst scenario isn't a crash like Ireland but the scenario India faces. If export value declines the currency could devalue rapidly (in India the value of currency has halves since 2008) which would push inflation along very quickly. Then the RBNZ would have to push the OCR very high very quickly to stay within inflation targeting guidelines. If the OCR even doubled a lot of people would be in pretty deep right now.