chocolate cake

I don't know he seemed to have to have rode it out, see what the next few polls show. What's becoming clear is that a vote for Greens runs the risk of not counting, with them now hovering just over or under 5%, and TOP almost certainly not to count.
Strange the ICM poll being in full digits, 43 v 41, could be either 42.6 v 41.4, or 43.4 v 40.6.


As for NZ First and Winston, if he's calling the tune, he's already said he 'll go with go first with the largest party, and he'll be keen to ensure there's no others in a coalition, ACT, Greens or Maori.

Charismatic

There has been a lot of talk this election about the tax system and I suggest the OECD gives a good overview of how much tax we collect from our economy:


And where that tax is collected:


If you feel like your income doesn't go as far in New Zealand this may point to why .

Summary pdf: https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-sta...ew-zealand.pdf

Kotare

If you add personal taxes to social security contributions then NZ looks OK eg UK NIC tax is just a semi disguised personal tax.

Charismatic

National announce they intend to tinker with the RMA if re-elected and clarify that humans do actually have rights despite what Paula Bennett thinks. Labour announce their calculations are indeed correct if you are willing to embrace what Trump might call "alternative" mathematics.

BEVS

A good post.
Interesting to note that the countries pegged as having the 'happiest' people are those willing to pay into their country via taxation of one sort or another . Denmark etc.

I'm with Choc . A vote for Green right now will be a lost vote.

I would agree that the slash immigration thing is a vote puller. Somehow it is thought that immigrants take jobs from the outstretched hands of kiwis. They don't of course but hey. When in need of votes...

Same with this latest 'lets tax the tourists' thing. Very shortsighted but a good vote puller. Make someone else pay for that which we don't want to put our hands in our own pockets for. I sometimes think this country does not deserve either its immigrants nor the tourists.

I'm sticking to me guns on plastics though. It needs to stop and stop yesterday. Not reused or otherwise . Why? Because it is not biodegradable & will eventually find its way adversely into the environment.
As I already posted. Other ways have been tried and are not working. Currently it is boomerang bags. *sigh* That won't stop plastic bags being manufactured. It is no more plastic bags is what is needed. No more manufacturing these very dangerous items. Forgot your biodegradable cloth grocery bags? The likes of which most Mums used decades ago. Then take your groceries home in a cardboard box.

Have to be honest. I cannot be bothered with the very American style head to head debates & I use that word loosely.

Charismatic

Can't agree with you on immigration. I think an immigration policy needs to fit the rate of infrastructure development and local employment market. Also I'm very suspicious that some of the roles listed couldn't be filled by local applicants.

Charismatic

An early Christmas present for Rt. Hon. Steven Joyce:



Linky to full story.

chocolate cake

Well at the risk of receiving more links from Carb, one of the disappointing things from last night's debate was Jacinda Ardern copying the John Key cop-out on raising the pension age, by resigning rather than raising it,
Jacinda-Ardern-pledges-to-quit-rather-than-raise-NZ-Super-age
as almost all experts suggest and practically all other countries have done years ago. Instead abdicating the responsibility on the issue, postponing the cost to future, it's inevitably going to happen, the notice on it doing so will get less and less.

Here's Jacinda Arderns views in 2012, all very different!
'If this government was genuinely interested in the issue of sustainability, it would look first at superannuation - and not to butcher it, but to ensure its survival.

In three years, superannuation will cost more than the entire education budget; preschool, primary, secondary and tertiary put together.

It will grow to be 20 times the cost of unemployment benefits. We need to ask if the universal age of super is set at the right place. But rather than tackle this big issue for the sake of future generations who want a home, a secure retirement and a country with a sound savings plan, they continue to target them and burden them with debt.

Politics can’t just be about making decisions that anger the least number of people possible, it has to be about doing the right thing. Labour’s view that superannuation should be lifted is one that we think needs to be phased in from 2020, and one that requires some thinking around how we assist those who work in hard physical jobs who have no choice but to retire earlier than most. That all requires thinking and decisions now so that my generation not only has a fair chance to save, but a chance of having a universal super scheme in the first place. That’s the message we should all be talking about.'

Nothing's changed since to make pensions cost more affordable, we're just much nearer the 2020 date mentioned above. Obviously politics is now about making decisions to anger the least number of people.


And various quotes by their finance spokesman at the last two elections, David Parker

'Finance spokesman David Parker said today that unless there were massive tax increases, it couldn’t be sustained in its present form.
Parker said he thought people largely understood raising the retirement age was a responsible policy.
“In two years spending on superannuation will cost more than putting our kids through school and university. That’s wrong. National’s refusal to address the retirement age is hurting our next generation.
Labour’s finance spokesperson David Parker says pension costs, which make up about half of all social spending, need to be addressed. “If you want an example of where fiscal responsibility starts that’s it – that is the biggest growing cost centre that is controllable for Government.”'

The better idea would be to put the matter to a panel of experts, most would advocate starting to raise the entitlement well before National's post Key plans.

garethwm

I disagree that a policy to cut back on immigration is particularly vote pulling. Andrew Little was always talking about doing it and it didnt do him any good. And its Winston Peters main policy and he is currently tracking about 6 %. I think its true that there are a lot of people who want to see a cutback but there are just as many that dont. A lot of business folk are going to be swayed or pushed to National I think because of the respective immigration policies. Those in the building industry for one. Its kind of weird because lower immigration is normally a policy of the right or conservative parties but its the other way around here.

chocolate cake

Yeah, tend to agree on immigration, it's the quantity and quality of it. At the moment it seems to be the one thing driving GDP growth, though noticeably not GDP growth per head, which is little changed.
With so much of it heading to Auckland, it's been a big driving factor behind house price growth which are ridiculous levels.

BEVS

I agree. Many home grown kiwis would not IMO.

Depends on which visa policy you are referring to of which there is more than one.

Charismatic

Roy Morgan survey indicates what voters think are the most pressing issues:





No one said Zombie apocalypse? I'm disappointed in society .

Charismatic

I thought the good stuff was over this election cycle but then...SIS are investigating if National MP Jian Yang is actually a Chinese mole: https://www.ft.com/content/64991ca6-9796-11e7-a652-cde3f882dd7b

chocolate cake

Well a U turn today from Taxinda on the Tax Working Group will now not see anything implemented in a first term if they are elected. Supposedly a Captain's call, instead it seems to smack of lack of nous.
I actually favour a proper capital gains tax, not for the reason that it might dampen house prices I doubt it will, more because if it exempts the family home it's a fair tax, other kinds of income are taxed.
But leaving it to working party to take the blame is a cop out, afterall both Ardern and Robertson and like have been in Parliament have both been in Parliament since 2008, that's nine years sat in Parliament taking Parliamentary salary with neat pension rights, they've had ample opportunity to come with properly though out ideas.

Like Key before Ardern seems more of a PR expert than a conviction politician. The same Key promise not to raise retirement age under their watch, passing the problem on.

Anyway what about the polls? Tuesday it was Nats on 47.3, Labour 37.8 and Greens missing out, today's have Labour on 44, Nat 40 with Labour able to form a government with Greens alone.
Certainly one or both are widely out, don't know how many of these polls rely on calling landlines, but many don't have a landline now anyway, so would heavily screwed one way.
The problem is the polls do matter in MMP, particularly for the minor parties where 5% minimum is needed to return any seats at all without an electorate seat. That means 4.9% = no seats, yet 5.0% equals 6 seats in ~ 120 seat Parliament. Those hovering in that zone like Greens or below like Gareth Morgan's TOP party risk supportors going elsewhere on decision day. Though that said with the polls already two weeks before the election, that seems ridiculous too.

FWIW two things at least I agree with Winston Peters on, the polls are crap, and reducing the no. of MPs to 100

Charismatic

That Newshub Reid Research poll that showed National way ahead is a bit of an outlier. Most are showing it's still a tight race between mediocrity and indifference.

No idea why budget balance is such a contentious issue, as the reserve bank have shown time and again it's simply not possible to model the economy any useful distance ahead. A realistic scenario would use a range of forecasts.

Why not campaign on something more popular?
- Radio New Zealand to get funding so they can play chilled rock (Riders of the Storm and such) back to back while you drive home on a Friday evening.
- Spot fines in cinemas for anyone using a mobile telephone during a filum after the bit where the lion roars.
- All official correspondence between New Zealand and Trumps white house to start out with the assertion that American chemtrails are turning the frogs gay and be written in comic sans font.