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General Election - 2020 edition

General Election - 2020 edition

Old Oct 11th 2020, 8:44 am
  #46  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
I don't quite understand what is going on, voting is open but a major political party made a significant policy announcement today. If you voted early you might well be kicking yourself.
Believe me, there is absolutely nothing that could make me change my vote.
quitrv
I did consider the Advance NZ party. The combination of mental instabily and a conspiracy theorist running the country seems quite appealing

Last edited by Justcol; Oct 11th 2020 at 9:42 am.
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Old Oct 13th 2020, 11:50 pm
  #47  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

It's one of those things that would be funny for a week or so but would then grow very tiresome.
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Old Oct 15th 2020, 9:52 am
  #48  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Well does seem increasingly likely like a done deal at the weekend, Labour with the Greens/Hard Left.

Earlier in the year it was looking like a close election again, Labour having failed to meet any of their targets, and polling behind and at best level with National.

However coronavirus has saved things for Ardern, and she & Labour have been clearly running in that record, despite the lockdown being too harsh (v equally successful Australia) and then letting things back in through the border failures in August.
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Old Oct 15th 2020, 5:55 pm
  #49  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

If the greens gain a bigger foothold in govt, we're f##ked.
Ridiculous people with ridiculous policies

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Old Oct 15th 2020, 8:19 pm
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Originally Posted by Justcol View Post
If the greens gain a bigger foothold in govt, we're f##ked.
Ridiculous people with ridiculous policies
I agree with you here Justcol...
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Old Oct 16th 2020, 9:02 am
  #51  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Which lucky lady will get the glass slipper from Winston "Charming" Peters? No point in playing demure, they're on the bed now...

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Old Oct 16th 2020, 10:53 am
  #52  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
Which lucky lady will get the glass slipper from Winston "Charming" Peters? No point in playing demure, they're on the bed now...
That's put things in my head that i don't want there 不不中
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Old Oct 16th 2020, 7:57 pm
  #53  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

I hope I can sustain a election when I'm his age. Most men need drugs to poll at that age.
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Old Oct 16th 2020, 11:26 pm
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
I hope I can sustain a election when I'm his age. Most men need drugs to poll at that age.
不不不
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Old Oct 17th 2020, 8:46 am
  #55  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Looks like Labour have the numbers to go it alone, largely yielded by National.

Prime Minister Ardern has done spectacularly, at the beginning or the year she had achieved few major policy objectives and was polling accordingly. She has almost single handedly leveraged the Coronavirus response to her advantage and that shows just how politically astute the Prime Minister is.

Whether they do or not the next government will face a very different set of economic conditions. Peak GDP per capita in New Zealand was in 2014, Peak GDP per hour worked peaked in 2012, many economists are broadly forecasting a doubling of unemployment and we've already headed deep into deficit spending this year to finance social programs due to the Coronavirus emergency. By necessity the next government will not be able to commit financial resources to new, capital intensive projects (e.g. major rail, electrification, roading, housing etc.)
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Old Oct 17th 2020, 12:53 pm
  #56  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
By necessity the next government will not be able to commit financial resources to new, capital intensive projects (e.g. major rail, electrification, roading, housing etc.)
Why not, exactly?

Real interest rates are at historic lows, and likely to remain there for a considerable period, and there is considerable slack in the labour market. One could scarcely imagine better circumstances for a newly-elected majority government--of any political stripe--to launch a major infrastructure investment program. It would quickly push a key industry sector back to full employment, and (with appropriate governance in terms of project selection) positive longterm economic returns.
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Old Oct 17th 2020, 8:01 pm
  #57  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Is it over yet?

The question for us though is does MMP produce a better outcome than we are all used to from the first-past-the-post system? There is a graph on the BBC news site that shows the NZ wide distribution of votes per party is a similar proportion to the number of seats that those parties will have in parliament, which would seem completely fair.

It doesn't apply this time but are the compromises needed to put together a coalition that that system usually produces the best thing to do to run a country?
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Old Oct 17th 2020, 10:00 pm
  #58  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Originally Posted by abner View Post
Why not, exactly?

Real interest rates are at historic lows, and likely to remain there for a considerable period, and there is considerable slack in the labour market. One could scarcely imagine better circumstances for a newly-elected majority government--of any political stripe--to launch a major infrastructure investment program. It would quickly push a key industry sector back to full employment, and (with appropriate governance in terms of project selection) positive longterm economic returns.
The borrowing to support employment and businesses is being done. In 2018 we ran a $5.5bn surplus, in 2019 we ran a surplus of $7.3bn but this year we are where on track for a deficit of $1bn pre-pandemic because of the commitment to new government programs. However the actual deficit is probably going to be about $24bn, as reported by New Zealand Treasury in September, for this year because if the extraordinary direct support government is providing to "freeze" the economy as an interim measure. To put that into context the governments big infrastructure announcements in January totalled only $12bn spread over 5 years so you can see the rapid change in New Zealands budgetary position.

The amount of money borrowed (and that will continue to be borrowed) is absolutely staggering but, I feel compelled to add, required to support the wider economy from falling into a sharper recession. New Zealand has low levels of government debt but very high levels of household debt which counterbalances this.

To the credit of both major political parties they have been very constrained in what they've promised to deliver. The Reserve Bank has been accomodating with LSAP to help keep borrowing costs low during this extraordinary time.

Much as I'd like to say the future is full of shiny new harbour bridges, electric charging infrastructure on every street corner and a house for every child the reality that lies in front of us necessitates just keeping people in jobs.
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Old Oct 18th 2020, 10:30 am
  #59  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
Looks like Labour have the numbers to go it alone, largely yielded by National.

Prime Minister Ardern has done spectacularly, at the beginning or the year she had achieved few major policy objectives and was polling accordingly. She has almost single handedly leveraged the Coronavirus response to her advantage and that shows just how politically astute the Prime Minister is.

Whether they do or not the next government will face a very different set of economic conditions. Peak GDP per capita in New Zealand was in 2014, Peak GDP per hour worked peaked in 2012, many economists are broadly forecasting a doubling of unemployment and we've already headed deep into deficit spending this year to finance social programs due to the Coronavirus emergency. By necessity the next government will not be able to commit financial resources to new, capital intensive projects (e.g. major rail, electrification, roading, housing etc.)
To be honest quite a relief rather than what looked like the alternative 45% and relying on green (/marxist) votes, and consequence significant influence which would be disaster. Despite the virtual one issue election, the National Party have themselves to blame for the disastrous performance, rolling Simon Bridges for Muller & Kaye in the first place, as lack of loyalty never goes down well, then even the election they couldn't get behind the leader (Denise Lee leaked email).
Raising the wealth tax late in the game, just seems to have shoved a few far left Labour voters to Greens as they seem to have comfortably got above 5%, and middle possible National voters to Labour to ensure no green influence when it became clear National had no chance).

Still will Ardern be brave enough to go it alone as she has the apparent mandate and ought to do? I suspect she's likely to offer the greens at least a confidence and supply, so that she can blame them for some issues, and get some unpopular policies through.
She has a difficult decision re: Deputy Prime Minister, a Greens coalition would have probably seen Shaw in a Deputy role, instead surely not Kelvin Davis, who like most outside the magic duo (Ardern & Robertson) have achieved little, and looked uncomfortable when stepping in the absence of both Ardern herself and Winston Peters in this last Parliament. This victory speech from Kelvin Davis last night is cringeworthy, childish and ungracious at best:-
kelvin davis victory speech

If we could have one minor change Parliament, none of the cringeworthy and self important valedictory speeches on leaving. What other Parliament wastes time on these?
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Old Oct 18th 2020, 10:41 am
  #60  
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Incidentally strange our first Coronavirus community case for xx days wasn't announced when discovered yesterday evening! would have taken the gloss off celebrations I guess.

Either way let's hope it doesn't become a new cluster and the return of further lockdowns.
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