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General Election - 2020 edition

General Election - 2020 edition

Old Jul 16th 2020, 12:23 am
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Default General Election - 2020 edition

Yes, update your enrollment details and mark Saturday the 19th of September, 2020 in your diaries as the day of the General Election.

This is widely expected not to be a close run thing this time around owing to the strong swing in polling through this year:

The Green Party could be in trouble if they don't make the 5% threshold because they seem unlikely to win any electoral seat.
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Old Jul 16th 2020, 1:32 am
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

The cannabis vote will be closer though!
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Old Jul 16th 2020, 9:01 am
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

What was the real story with Todd Muller?

Yes, it is not looking close. Jacinta Ardern has done well governing as a centrist and rising to the gravity of office, she has been no David Lange Redux. On merits I don't believe her government deserved to be behind National for most of her term.

Hopefully the Greens tumble out and take Winston with them.

Judith Collins is a great choice for National, if she can survive the internal politics after the election.
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Old Jul 17th 2020, 7:03 am
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Smile Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Originally Posted by carcajou View Post
What was the real story with Todd Muller?
I think it was just a drunken dare that went too far. Ideally National would stop shooting themselves in the feet every few weeks and actually do the job of opposition but I think hubris has got the better of them. Looking at them salivating over Luxon I think they have yet to learn that lesson. Good for ACT/David Seymour perhaps?

The Prime Minister got lucky that she had a string of major events (WuFlu, The Christchurch shootings, White Island etc.) that drew fire away from the major policy failures of her government (Tax Reform, KiwiBuild etc.) That said you need a bit of luck to be seen as successful in government, it just doesn't pay to make a habit of relying on luck because it runs both ways.

The Green Party are actually going through a major change. If you look at their party list more of their MPs are young, female, social media savvy and from affluent backgrounds rather than the alternative types the party used to attract (more Chlöe Swarbrick than Jeanette Fitzsimons.) That appears to be why they went from a steady circa 10% of the popular vote to struggling closed to the 5% threshold, that core voter isn't currently engaged.
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Old Jul 17th 2020, 12:06 pm
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
I think it was just a drunken dare that went too far. Ideally National would stop shooting themselves in the feet every few weeks and actually do the job of opposition but I think hubris has got the better of them. Looking at them salivating over Luxon I think they have yet to learn that lesson. Good for ACT/David Seymour perhaps?

The Prime Minister got lucky that she had a string of major events (WuFlu, The Christchurch shootings, White Island etc.) that drew fire away from the major policy failures of her government (Tax Reform, KiwiBuild etc.) That said you need a bit of luck to be seen as successful in government, it just doesn't pay to make a habit of relying on luck because it runs both ways.

The Green Party are actually going through a major change. If you look at their party list more of their MPs are young, female, social media savvy and from affluent backgrounds rather than the alternative types the party used to attract (more Chlöe Swarbrick than Jeanette Fitzsimons.) That appears to be why they went from a steady circa 10% of the popular vote to struggling closed to the 5% threshold, that core voter isn't currently engaged.
Interesting analysis, particularly your comments about the Greens. You are right - they are not the party of Nandor Tanczos anymore. The current Green voter you describe, would be heavily engaged by Jacinta Ardern and I think the Greens are losing a lot of support to Labour right now.

I also think, Kiwi voters either like you or they don't, and they don't tend to change their minds once they have decided - and this can give some politicians a coat of teflon. Someone like Bill English falls into the latter category - I remember when Helen Clark shot him into space in 2002 - and I was disappointed National tapped back into that well when John Key resigned, with a predictable result. I wonder if the talk about Luxon is related to how John Key became leader and subsequent result - how they went that pathway with a successful businessman basically parachuted into the top spot, and they are looking to dig into that well again?
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Old Jul 18th 2020, 7:13 am
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Small parties need to keep differentiating themselves or be subsumed.

Luxon...maybe. Prime Minister Ardern doesn't have any immediate threat but Luxon does present and articulate himself at least equally as well. Momentum is very much with the incumbent however, as long as Labour can get policy delivery back on track they should be capable of gliding along.
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Old Jul 18th 2020, 9:35 pm
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

There seems to be little point in voting in NZ
When unelected people are allowed to sit in parliament you know your vote isn't worth the paper it's printed on. It really is democracy at it's worst.
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Old Jul 18th 2020, 11:02 pm
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

I'm from a country with an entire chamber of Lords that the public didn't vote for but still get a say.
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Old Jul 19th 2020, 1:02 am
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Well, MMP was endorsed by a popular referendum in 1993 and then retained in 2011.

I, personally like the two-vote system. It gives an option to people who live in what are effectively one-party electorates. You can vote for your local stalwart facing token opposition but then cast a broader party vote.

Concur with Charismatic about smaller parties needing to differentiate to stay viable, see ACT, which for the past several election cycles has just been the Epsom Branch of the National Party. I think it's a reasonable bet that NZ First will go the way of United Future when Winston decides to hang it up.
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Old Jul 19th 2020, 9:00 am
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Originally Posted by carcajou View Post
Concur with Charismatic about smaller parties needing to differentiate to stay viable...
Even the larger, more establish political parties.

National backing the unnecessary quarantine today is a great example. Iceland has show that this can be managed without those procedures, in fact there are several countries you can travel from without any testing at all, but rather than learn and adapt both are backing what will shortly be seen as the wrong management approach. Why not have a progressive policy statement that differentiates National and is already well proven? Just nuts.
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Old Jul 19th 2020, 9:37 am
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

PC kindergarten politics. No matter where you finish , everyone's a winner
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Old Jul 21st 2020, 11:19 am
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
Even the larger, more establish political parties.

National backing the unnecessary quarantine today is a great example. Iceland has show that this can be managed without those procedures, in fact there are several countries you can travel from without any testing at all, but rather than learn and adapt both are backing what will shortly be seen as the wrong management approach. Why not have a progressive policy statement that differentiates National and is already well proven? Just nuts.
No way in the short, medium term are NZ borders going to be open, simply not feasible in the elimatioin strategy that's been chosen after the initial 'flatten trhe curve', so whatever party the compulsory quarantine will be in place for somewhile. That being a given, there's got to be charging to pass over cost of the quarantine, with a small nunber of exceptions.

The Iceland approach in the link wouldn't work here, as a negative test on day 1 doesn't prove much, and self isolation ddin't work in the initial instances back in early March.

While it can't be expected to be popular to returning residents and prospective visitors, now here in NZ with things pretty much as normal excepting the border closure, it seems weird looking at all these countries starting to insist on face masks everywhere, here 1 in 300 is wearing a mask now, tops.
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Old Jul 21st 2020, 11:25 am
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Oh and to add on the forum topic title here, I suspect the election will be closer than anticipated, while undoubtedly popular Aderns nanny approach grinds with many. Pre the coronavirus, National were polling about the same or above Labour.
National's problem will be in that in the MMP system, and current state of other parties, they are even more unlikely to have enough friends to take them past the 50% required, unless both the Greens and NZ First miss out on 5% votes and those votes become wasted.
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Old Jul 22nd 2020, 9:27 am
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Really interested in what the outcome of the referendums will be
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Old Jul 22nd 2020, 11:33 am
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Default Re: General Election - 2020 edition

Originally Posted by chocolate cake View Post
...I suspect the election will be closer than anticipated...
It might be a lot closer if National MPs could stop doing...stuff.
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