General Election - 2020 edition
#46
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Re: General Election - 2020 edition
quitrv
I did consider the Advance NZ party. The combination of mental instabily and a conspiracy theorist running the country seems quite appealing
Last edited by Justcol; Oct 11th 2020 at 9:42 am.
#48
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Re: General Election - 2020 edition
Well does seem increasingly likely like a done deal at the weekend, Labour with the Greens/Hard Left.
Earlier in the year it was looking like a close election again, Labour having failed to meet any of their targets, and polling behind and at best level with National.
However coronavirus has saved things for Ardern, and she & Labour have been clearly running in that record, despite the lockdown being too harsh (v equally successful Australia) and then letting things back in through the border failures in August.
Earlier in the year it was looking like a close election again, Labour having failed to meet any of their targets, and polling behind and at best level with National.
However coronavirus has saved things for Ardern, and she & Labour have been clearly running in that record, despite the lockdown being too harsh (v equally successful Australia) and then letting things back in through the border failures in August.
#50
#52
#55
Re: General Election - 2020 edition
Looks like Labour have the numbers to go it alone, largely yielded by National.
Prime Minister Ardern has done spectacularly, at the beginning or the year she had achieved few major policy objectives and was polling accordingly. She has almost single handedly leveraged the Coronavirus response to her advantage and that shows just how politically astute the Prime Minister is.
Whether they do or not the next government will face a very different set of economic conditions. Peak GDP per capita in New Zealand was in 2014, Peak GDP per hour worked peaked in 2012, many economists are broadly forecasting a doubling of unemployment and we've already headed deep into deficit spending this year to finance social programs due to the Coronavirus emergency. By necessity the next government will not be able to commit financial resources to new, capital intensive projects (e.g. major rail, electrification, roading, housing etc.)
Prime Minister Ardern has done spectacularly, at the beginning or the year she had achieved few major policy objectives and was polling accordingly. She has almost single handedly leveraged the Coronavirus response to her advantage and that shows just how politically astute the Prime Minister is.
Whether they do or not the next government will face a very different set of economic conditions. Peak GDP per capita in New Zealand was in 2014, Peak GDP per hour worked peaked in 2012, many economists are broadly forecasting a doubling of unemployment and we've already headed deep into deficit spending this year to finance social programs due to the Coronavirus emergency. By necessity the next government will not be able to commit financial resources to new, capital intensive projects (e.g. major rail, electrification, roading, housing etc.)
#56
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Re: General Election - 2020 edition
Real interest rates are at historic lows, and likely to remain there for a considerable period, and there is considerable slack in the labour market. One could scarcely imagine better circumstances for a newly-elected majority government--of any political stripe--to launch a major infrastructure investment program. It would quickly push a key industry sector back to full employment, and (with appropriate governance in terms of project selection) positive longterm economic returns.
#57
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Re: General Election - 2020 edition
Is it over yet?
The question for us though is does MMP produce a better outcome than we are all used to from the first-past-the-post system? There is a graph on the BBC news site that shows the NZ wide distribution of votes per party is a similar proportion to the number of seats that those parties will have in parliament, which would seem completely fair.
It doesn't apply this time but are the compromises needed to put together a coalition that that system usually produces the best thing to do to run a country?
The question for us though is does MMP produce a better outcome than we are all used to from the first-past-the-post system? There is a graph on the BBC news site that shows the NZ wide distribution of votes per party is a similar proportion to the number of seats that those parties will have in parliament, which would seem completely fair.
It doesn't apply this time but are the compromises needed to put together a coalition that that system usually produces the best thing to do to run a country?
#58
Re: General Election - 2020 edition
Why not, exactly?
Real interest rates are at historic lows, and likely to remain there for a considerable period, and there is considerable slack in the labour market. One could scarcely imagine better circumstances for a newly-elected majority government--of any political stripe--to launch a major infrastructure investment program. It would quickly push a key industry sector back to full employment, and (with appropriate governance in terms of project selection) positive longterm economic returns.
Real interest rates are at historic lows, and likely to remain there for a considerable period, and there is considerable slack in the labour market. One could scarcely imagine better circumstances for a newly-elected majority government--of any political stripe--to launch a major infrastructure investment program. It would quickly push a key industry sector back to full employment, and (with appropriate governance in terms of project selection) positive longterm economic returns.
The amount of money borrowed (and that will continue to be borrowed) is absolutely staggering but, I feel compelled to add, required to support the wider economy from falling into a sharper recession. New Zealand has low levels of government debt but very high levels of household debt which counterbalances this.
To the credit of both major political parties they have been very constrained in what they've promised to deliver. The Reserve Bank has been accomodating with LSAP to help keep borrowing costs low during this extraordinary time.
Much as I'd like to say the future is full of shiny new harbour bridges, electric charging infrastructure on every street corner and a house for every child the reality that lies in front of us necessitates just keeping people in jobs.
#59
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Re: General Election - 2020 edition
Looks like Labour have the numbers to go it alone, largely yielded by National.
Prime Minister Ardern has done spectacularly, at the beginning or the year she had achieved few major policy objectives and was polling accordingly. She has almost single handedly leveraged the Coronavirus response to her advantage and that shows just how politically astute the Prime Minister is.
Whether they do or not the next government will face a very different set of economic conditions. Peak GDP per capita in New Zealand was in 2014, Peak GDP per hour worked peaked in 2012, many economists are broadly forecasting a doubling of unemployment and we've already headed deep into deficit spending this year to finance social programs due to the Coronavirus emergency. By necessity the next government will not be able to commit financial resources to new, capital intensive projects (e.g. major rail, electrification, roading, housing etc.)
Prime Minister Ardern has done spectacularly, at the beginning or the year she had achieved few major policy objectives and was polling accordingly. She has almost single handedly leveraged the Coronavirus response to her advantage and that shows just how politically astute the Prime Minister is.
Whether they do or not the next government will face a very different set of economic conditions. Peak GDP per capita in New Zealand was in 2014, Peak GDP per hour worked peaked in 2012, many economists are broadly forecasting a doubling of unemployment and we've already headed deep into deficit spending this year to finance social programs due to the Coronavirus emergency. By necessity the next government will not be able to commit financial resources to new, capital intensive projects (e.g. major rail, electrification, roading, housing etc.)
Raising the wealth tax late in the game, just seems to have shoved a few far left Labour voters to Greens as they seem to have comfortably got above 5%, and middle possible National voters to Labour to ensure no green influence when it became clear National had no chance).
Still will Ardern be brave enough to go it alone as she has the apparent mandate and ought to do? I suspect she's likely to offer the greens at least a confidence and supply, so that she can blame them for some issues, and get some unpopular policies through.
She has a difficult decision re: Deputy Prime Minister, a Greens coalition would have probably seen Shaw in a Deputy role, instead surely not Kelvin Davis, who like most outside the magic duo (Ardern & Robertson) have achieved little, and looked uncomfortable when stepping in the absence of both Ardern herself and Winston Peters in this last Parliament. This victory speech from Kelvin Davis last night is cringeworthy, childish and ungracious at best:-
kelvin davis victory speech
If we could have one minor change Parliament, none of the cringeworthy and self important valedictory speeches on leaving. What other Parliament wastes time on these?
#60
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Re: General Election - 2020 edition
Incidentally strange our first Coronavirus community case for xx days wasn't announced when discovered yesterday evening! would have taken the gloss off celebrations I guess.
Either way let's hope it doesn't become a new cluster and the return of further lockdowns.
Either way let's hope it doesn't become a new cluster and the return of further lockdowns.