Dewb09

OH no, just as things are finally moving on the house front

OMG maybe I am related to Genesis

Dewb

Genesis

Fortunately the train crash stopped at 10.59 NZ time. We now have the rest of the weekend not having to see the pound lose more value every minute. Sorry guys but Kate ain't selling. I have tried to persuade her but she is in for atleat a year in the UK. We are now getting a heady 2% interest on her inhert=itance..I have an endowment coming up for maturity come september time I may well sell up whatever piffiling amount I get. Its for about 40K GBP but alas I will be lucky to see 17k GBP. I was told at the time I bought it in 1985 that it would pay out in full and there would be a large bung too...yeah right. Again shafted by the financial services sector. I have worked out due to the fall in the pound, Hanover Finance and my crap endowment I am over $300k NZ down just now. I say double bollocks.

mudblood21

I was speaking with the man from the currency exchange company. Told him what I had read on here, and asked if he could comment...

officially...no - they just change money, they don't advise. They don't have crystal balls(....behave !)

but in his personal opinion, the advice I got from here is spot on - there is no good news for the pound on the horizon. It will be hostile for the GBP for at least one year --- and no one could possibly predict more than a year away.

so once again, well done expats -you were spot on again!

irish_eyes

not an expert but in my experience - and by the way i've never been through a recession - the kiwi dollar has done this - by the way i'm dealin in euro as i'm an irish lass - In 2002 the kiwi dollar was pretty much 2.00 for 1 euro (which i think back then was the punt not euro) in 2005 it was $1.72 for a euro which was pretty bad. In 2008 it was $2.10 in august. Which was when we sent our money over and moved here for good. By December of that year it was $2.60ish to the euro which almost made me sick as that was an extra $60-$70,000 dollars which would have made a massive difference to our life. In saying that the interest % on the amount we brought was brilliant it was about 9% so we were making almost $2,000 a month on interest so that helped a bit. We watched it for 6 months before we left, it went up a few cents then down but never did anthing major yet the month before we left it just kept rising so we knew from watching it that it could of changed to below the $2.00 mark. Before the recession it was less of a worry. We decided that if it went over the $2.07 mark we would change so we did. Now we have to live with the fact that it went way above that figure. At the end of the day, we were glad that we changed cause banking was so futile back in 2008 we were just glad to be out of it all. The recession shook us slightly and we are aware that it could of been way worse. We are healthy as are our 2 kids so for the minute i'm happy that we did what we did but if I had to do it again I would wait (agree an amount your both happy with then exchange) cause even tho the recession is tough it does tend to go really low then a year or so later go really high. My advise is - if you dont need it right now - WAIT - in time it will go back up but the time involved may be longer than recent trends........

whitesand

Yep, I'd agree with the above. If you play the waiting game, then at the end of the day you still have your money. However, if you take the hit now, you may well kick yourself later!

simonsi

If you are willing to wait long enough then all things (and exchange rates) may be possible, as they say "the value of your investments may go down as well as up", holds true for currency rates too.

We still have issues yet to come into play in the UK. A kez one is that the public sector expansion has kept the employment numbers higher than they would otherwise (ie reduced the recessionary unemployment), however that expansion is going to turn into a contraction over the next few months (post election anyone??), if the private sector can't expand fast enough to create jobs to replace the public sector ones that will be lost then unemployment will rise again and we can all say hello to a double-dip recession.

Genesis

I agree to a degree...but what if the currency book is being re written PERMANENTLY? No one ever guessed the kiwi would become so strong and by contrast the GBP so weak. 1 year ago we could have gotten around $2.85ish. GB LTD had been in BIG trouble well before this..the writing was on the wall to a degree for a while and whilst we saw a roller coaster from 2.50 to almost 3 in that period before the BIG drop no one could have ever guessed it would plumb to c2.10. There is talk of 'correction' re GBP's value. There is talk of 1.50 being possible. What if we are on a downward trend? What if it never ever gets above 2.30. The GBP will be gone soon anyways from what I read..what time does it have left? 3-5 years? I am glad Kate has called on this one and is hoping of a bounce back. I could not bear to be responsible for another fiscal screw up if 2.11 in time shows to have been a bloody good deal.

cappuccino

We will soon be seeing images like these:

Woman burning stacks of worthless currency in her stove for heat, Germany 1923

and

Children playing with stack of worthless currency, Germany 1923

rushmere

Here's a chart of the £ against the NZ dollar for the past 10 years.

Spot any trend?

simonsi

Hmm, tells us two things, firstly you would have to be a brave person to bet against the long term trend although there could be some short term recovery IF you time it right and IF there is an increase to come - no guarantee of that.

...and in 20yrs the £ will be worth nothing

In other words simply being prepared to wait does not guarantee a better rate is there to be had.

Genesis

Its not really clear to me..can anyone help?

simonsi

Free fall

Crash dive

Deep six

is this helping??

Genesis

Nope..I'm just not getting it..is there a trend happening here..some kind of pattern? Its quite pretty really..looks like a bit of a ski slope. I wonder why I am so crap with money? Looks like a great time to buy kiwi $s with my pounds..look I only have to give one crappy pound and I will get almost 2.1 kiwis. I am off to the money dealers.

simonsi

There you are, you are getting it, the 10-year trend is down, just like a ski slope, sure there are some rises that the snowboard boys would jump off but then it goes down again....

So taking that long term trend, waiting just means you end up further down the slope...

Genesis

So you reckon its going lower and lower? Would you exchange a substantial amount now if you did not need the money in NZ now or would you wait out the storm for maybe a number of years? We are getting a heady 2% interest on Kate inheritance. The only benefit to getting it over here is we could earn 6% here.

But the thought of it being 2.30 in 6 weeks time means even more money we have lost in the last 5 years....another $40k or thereabouts. That's alot of money aye to gamble, like wise if it sinks another 20cents the loss is there if we don't act now..oh what to do??