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rich hand Sep 6th 2010 8:51 pm

Exchange rate
 
Will the exchange rate ever be near to $3NZ/£ again? Should it ever reach this level? What actually is the natural level for the $NZ against the £.

I am hoping that the pound grows stronger over the next couple of years but I can't help wonder if it has reached a new level against the $NZ and that $2.5NZ may be deemed high the future.

Don't suppose anyone on here is an economist and can enlighten me?!

Genesis Sep 6th 2010 9:11 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by rich hand (Post 8830382)
Will the exchange rate ever be near to $3NZ/£ again? Should it ever reach this level? What actually is the natural level for the $NZ against the £.

I am hoping that the pound grows stronger over the next couple of years but I can't help wonder if it has reached a new level against the $NZ and that $2.5NZ may be deemed high the future.

Don't suppose anyone on here is an economist and can enlighten me?!

I am no economist but a keen follower of the kiwi since 2005. Back then the median for the previous decade was C$2.70ish. For the last year the GBP has been seriously weak and the kiwi correspondingly madly overvalued to the tune of as much as 30%. Those 2 together = a rather large train wreck for anyone with cash in the Uk that they want over in NZ. $3 is unlikely ever to happen again IMO for a very, very long time if ever. I think 2 yrs ago most of us were in a mind set of anything less than $2.70 was junk and you would only change cash at around $2.80 plus. I would exchange all our UK cash at $2.50 these days. I remain optimistic that $2.50 could return in the short term and with the amount we will be changing the diffo betwixt $2.12 and $2.50 is quite meaningful..infact for any amount it is meaningful. The $2.50ish has been mooted to return around Dec. 2010 time (one person said having been advised by an 'expert'..yeah right). You must remember that the kiwi is a hugely fickle currency and very, very volatile. It is (despite the its tiny size on the global currency mkt) one of the 10 top traded currencies because of the latter. People make lots of money out of it..and lose lots too (that'll be me). One thing is certain. No one knows really where a currency will be in any period with any great accuracy. If you wish to take the easy route just go to your preferred money trader and do a 'market order' for what you want. That means if you wish to wait until it gets to say $2.35 you tell your trader to buy as much as want at this juncture. It is done on a 24hr basis so you will not miss it (you may have to wait a while) but it takes the endless looking at markets out of your life. Unless you get off on that kind of thing!!!

BEVS Sep 6th 2010 11:09 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by Genesis (Post 8830417)
I think 2 yrs ago most of us were in a mind set of anything less than $2.70 was junk and you would only change cash at around $2.80 plus. I would exchange all our UK cash at $2.50 these days.

Same here.

Genesis Sep 7th 2010 12:25 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by BEVS (Post 8830602)
Same here.

Oh for hindsight Bev? What a mug I was. How dumb I look now. No change there. One door shuts, another slams in me face. In money terms anyway.

Toon_Nut Sep 7th 2010 6:41 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
The recent quake will only strengthen the NZD, whereas people would of though it would weaken it due to extra unforeseen government spending. It will go the other way as it is bound to create more new contracts = more building orders = more jobs = more spending = stronger $.

But hey, what do I know!!?? :confused:

($2.70 to the quid my the end of the week it is then!) :lol:

rich hand Sep 7th 2010 9:15 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 
Good post Genesis, very helpful.


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