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Easing of travel requirements in 2022

Easing of travel requirements in 2022

Old Dec 7th 2021, 4:48 pm
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
Commentary from a South African hospital group today:
"The variant 'appears to be highly transmissible,' Mediclinic said. Still, 'so far, a lower percentage of admitted Covid-19 patients require intensive care and ventilation."

New Zealand seriously needs a plan to reopen immediately so Omicron can outcompete Delta if the WHO confirms this. It would be morally unconscionable to subject our population to Delta if the physiological symptoms are worse.
Consider, of course, that if 100 people catch Delta and one dies, this is possibly less serious that if 10,000 catch Omicron and ten die.
Deaths per infection may be lower, but total deaths (and long covid) could be higher.
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Old Dec 7th 2021, 6:15 pm
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

Originally Posted by LittleGreyCat View Post
Consider, of course, that if 100 people catch Delta and one dies, this is possibly less serious that if 10,000 catch Omicron and ten die.
Deaths per infection may be lower, but total deaths (and long covid) could be higher.
And vice versa. More than likely reopening will mean we get it anyway so it's a "now of later" question rather than a "yes or no" question.
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Old Dec 9th 2021, 8:24 pm
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

I wonder about reinfection is, if Omicron does cause milder infection would that aid Delta and visa versa

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Old Dec 10th 2021, 1:41 pm
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

Originally Posted by MrsFychan View Post
I wonder about reinfection is, if Omicron does cause milder infection would that aid Delta and visa versa
That typically seems to be what happens, the variant that spreads fastest out competes others.

It's the physiological effects that are my main concern and it's looking like I'd rather have Omicron than Delta.​​​​​​
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Old Dec 11th 2021, 11:29 pm
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

More positive data from South Africa:
  • Only about 30 percent of those hospitalized with COVID-19 in recent weeks have been seriously ill, less than half the rate as during the first weeks of previous pandemic waves.
  • Average hospital stays for COVID-19 have been shorter this time — about 2.8 days compared to eight days.
  • Just 3% of patients hospitalized recently with COVID-19 have died, versus about 20% in the country’s earlier outbreaks.
​​​​​
​​​​​​The UK has reported that vaccines are less effective against the Omicron variant. This seems in line with what most scientists expect, vaccines will provide short term cover until the virus becomes endemic. No silver bullets for this one.
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Old Dec 12th 2021, 8:39 am
  #51  
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
More positive data from South Africa:

​​​​​
​​​​​​The UK has reported that vaccines are less effective against the Omicron variant. This seems in line with what most scientists expect, vaccines will provide short term cover until the virus becomes endemic. No silver bullets for this one.
Hopefully it continues to prove not as serious. Wonder why the vaccine isn’t as effective with this one ? Is it because it’s mutated?
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Old Dec 12th 2021, 10:29 am
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

Originally Posted by Clareuk View Post
Hopefully it continues to prove not as serious. Wonder why the vaccine isn’t as effective with this one ? Is it because it’s mutated?
Yes, generally viruses must continue to mutate or it would get wiped out. This process is called "antigenic drift". Early on there was some speculation that if the virus mutated slowly vaccines might knock it out but it became apparent that new variants are rapidly emerging. There are efforts to develop more effective vaccines against new variants as they emerge but obviously there is always a lag because it has to be developed, trialled, approved, manufactured, shipped, administered etc. So governments must now manage the transition from pandemic to endemic. Omicron appears to be a step in that direction.

This pandemic was particularly serious for the western world because it primarily killed the elderly and our populations are getting old as birthrates nosedive. In New Zealand median life expectancy has increased by 10 years since 1960 and the median age of a person has increased by about 15 years over the same period.
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Old Dec 12th 2021, 12:46 pm
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
Yes, generally viruses must continue to mutate or it would get wiped out. This process is called "antigenic drift". Early on there was some speculation that if the virus mutated slowly vaccines might knock it out but it became apparent that new variants are rapidly emerging. There are efforts to develop more effective vaccines against new variants as they emerge but obviously there is always a lag because it has to be developed, trialled, approved, manufactured, shipped, administered etc. So governments must now manage the transition from pandemic to endemic. Omicron appears to be a step in that direction.

This pandemic was particularly serious for the western world because it primarily killed the elderly and our populations are getting old as birthrates nosedive. In New Zealand median life expectancy has increased by 10 years since 1960 and the median age of a person has increased by about 15 years over the same period.
Thanks very much for the explanation Charismatic much appreciated 🙂

Last edited by Jerseygirl; Dec 12th 2021 at 12:52 pm. Reason: Fixed quote
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Old Dec 12th 2021, 8:21 pm
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

I wouldn't start planning holidays in sunshine in Europe or uk just yet guys.
Shizer has hit the fan with this omicron. the tidal wave is about to hit the UK and Euro.
spreading faster and harder than the delta. the vaccine is less effective. everyone is to get in for there booster vaccine asap. I'm booking mine next week. I had my 2nd jab in July.
Can see brown skids in jacinda pants already with opening the borders up.
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Old Dec 12th 2021, 8:33 pm
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

I've booked to come back with 20 year old daughter end of May, I'm ok with doing 7 days self isolation.

Been an interesting 2 years by then but I'm also patient.
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Old Dec 12th 2021, 11:36 pm
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

So far the severity of symptoms seems mild and, as a result, NHS hospital capacity has not been adversely impacted. Ditto South Africa, there has been an explosion in people reporting flu like symptoms but hospitals have not been inundated.

I, cautiously, see Omicron as a welcome development. What's been really frightening about Delta has been its severe symptoms, like many I'd been fearful for New Zealands healthcare system heading into winter which seems to be when cases accelerate rapidly. Frankly I doubt that New Zealands healthcare system could have coped with Delta next winter. Luckily we may not have to find out of Omicron is allowed to out-compete it.
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Old Dec 13th 2021, 7:03 am
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
So far the severity of symptoms seems mild and, as a result, NHS hospital capacity has not been adversely impacted. Ditto South Africa, there has been an explosion in people reporting flu like symptoms but hospitals have not been inundated.

I, cautiously, see Omicron as a welcome development. What's been really frightening about Delta has been its severe symptoms, like many I'd been fearful for New Zealands healthcare system heading into winter which seems to be when cases accelerate rapidly. Frankly I doubt that New Zealands healthcare system could have coped with Delta next winter. Luckily we may not have to find out of Omicron is allowed to out-compete it.
I get what your saying mate
but the UK med for trop medicine and viruses reckon it's more about numbers exploding with minimum protection against this strain.
If your not protected and haven't had your booster it's going spread like wild fire and NHS will be swamped with it.
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Old Dec 13th 2021, 9:05 am
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

Seems this has just become an extension of the CORONAVIRUS thread that was closed some weeks ago 😒

Last edited by Justcol; Dec 13th 2021 at 9:13 am.
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Old Dec 13th 2021, 9:42 am
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

Originally Posted by Justcol View Post
Seems this has just become an extension of the CORONAVIRUS thread that was closed some weeks ago 😒
Well I guess that was prematurely closed

We learn today that on Day 136 since the original short n sharp lockdown back in August and on the last of the year Auckland will be able to move to amber traffic light. Seem to make it as they go along.

Still, day -2 minus to being allowed out of Auckland on parole, though those 'spot checks' sure to make for some nasty queues heading North over the next month.
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Old Dec 13th 2021, 12:17 pm
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Default Re: Easing of travel requirements in 2022

Originally Posted by chocolate cake View Post
Well I guess that was prematurely closed

We learn today that on Day 136 since the original short n sharp lockdown back in August and on the last of the year Auckland will be able to move to amber traffic light. Seem to make it as they go along.

Still, day -2 minus to being allowed out of Auckland on parole, though those 'spot checks' sure to make for some nasty queues heading North over the next month.
was listening to one of the press releases from Jacinta.
They are going to review in Jan about Omricon and international travellers.cannot find the link I watched it on to reference it sorry will do better next time.
have a feeling this will be MIQ placement fully back in force which everyday people struggle so much to get into as it really is a lottery - hope I’m wrong though

Last edited by Clareuk; Dec 13th 2021 at 1:58 pm.
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