Currency

Old Jul 6th 2015, 9:45 pm
  #61  
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Default Re: Currency

Just did a deal at 2.3190.

Amazing to think that after thinking that the rate would not hit 2.1 for sometime I held out and got 2.07 back at the end of January/beginning of February.

A shame that the 2.3190 deal is for just under half of the GBP value I transferred at 2.07 - but it goes to show that the perception of a good deal is pretty much all down to how much you need it and want it for.

The deal at 2.07 went towards a property purchase, so swings and roundabouts.

The deal at 2.3190 will mainly go towards a car that'll end up burning my money anyhow


To give context;

If someone had sent over a reasonable amount of money from NZ to the UK (let's say $10,000) at 2.07 5 months ago and bought it back today at 2.3190 they would have made $1,202.90.

Not a bad interest rate (28.87 % annually) on that specific caluclation - but that easily have also taken years and years. Indeed the last time the rate was this good for the GBP was September 2009.

Goes to show all this exchange rate malarkey is a load of old cobblers really!!

All guess work, but if you do have an idea and decent wads of cash there is money to be had.

I won't be giving it a go though, I'm way too conservative and don't have wads of cash!!

Last edited by TommyLuck; Jul 6th 2015 at 9:51 pm.
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Old Jul 6th 2015, 10:27 pm
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Default Re: Currency

[QUOTE=TommyLuck;11693211]


Goes to show all this exchange rate malarkey is a load of old cobblers really!!
I agree.

All guess work, but if you do have an idea and decent wads of cash there is money to be had.
Yeah, that or gambling. To me, it's much the same thing.

I won't be giving it a go though, I'm way too conservative and don't have wads of cash!![/
I can relate to that.

Well done for getting your money at a better than average exchange rate on both occasions. Hope you enjoy your car when you get it.

It won't be long until the only way is up for the NZD. OK, it's at a five year low presently, but these things happen in cycles. In the meantime, I'll take the lower and still forecast to go lower mortgage interest rate, thank you.

Last edited by Snap Shot; Jul 6th 2015 at 10:33 pm. Reason: formatting
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Old Jul 7th 2015, 10:41 pm
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Snap Shot View Post
In the meantime, I'll take the lower and still forecast to go lower mortgage interest rate, thank you.
100%
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Old Jul 15th 2015, 7:16 am
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Default Re: Currency

NZD still shown as overvalued and latest reports shown it will normalise at around 2.5

Nomura now expects the RBNZ to cut rates by 25bp at the July meeting and again before the end of the year, bringing the policy rate to 2.75% by year-end.

"However, the outlook for the policy rate is heavily dependent on developments in the terms of trade and a further deterioration could lead rate cuts as early as at the September meeting. Despite the sharp depreciation in NZD in recent months, we estimate that the NZD TWI is still about 7% overvalued. This means that a further currency depreciation should be expected in the near future to re-equilibrate the currency," Nomura argues.

"Moreover, with the terms of trade likely to continue to fall, albeit at a slower pace, in coming months and the expectation that the RBNZ will need to cut rates further while the US Federal Reserve could hike rates before the end of the year, a further depreciation should be expected," Nomura adds.

So if you have sterling time to hold your nerve.
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Old Jul 16th 2015, 6:19 am
  #65  
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The huge drop in dairy auction prices over night has prompted a cataclysmic drop in the kiwi $ today. Yesterday it was about $2.32 ish. Today it is $2.3962.

Who would have thought in Jan 2015 that anything like $2.39 was possible?
Before this current drop in the last 2 odd months I remember it was about 1.94 ish for about 4-5 years.
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Old Jul 16th 2015, 6:27 am
  #66  
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I know.

Who would have thought .

Shame we have no quid notes these days.
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Old Jul 16th 2015, 7:13 am
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Default Re: Currency

At the end of the day, this is great for the NZ economy and will also help new UK immigrants, and help the country grow.
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Old Jul 16th 2015, 11:17 am
  #68  
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AAARGH! Just when I want to exchange dollars for sterling :-( Pleased for those doing it the other way round but selfishly I don't want it to get any higher!
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Old Jul 16th 2015, 5:07 pm
  #69  
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Default Re: Currency

New Zealand Dollar Forecasts Lowered

BNZ have cut their forecasts on the New Zealand dollar further as a result.

“We now forecast the trough in NZD/USD to be 0.60 in Q1 2016, materially deeper and slightly earlier than previously envisaged. This embodies a sharp descent from current levels,” says the strategy note.

BNZ anticipate the RBNZ will deliver both the July and September rate cuts with a prominent easing bias. But it is the
commencement of the Fed’s tightening cycle that will do the lion’s share of the work in driving NZD/USD lower.

The pound sterling v New Zealand dollar is forecast to fall to 2.4516 by December 2015 and 2.5163 by June 2016.
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Old Jul 18th 2015, 2:49 pm
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Default Re: Currency

I've just realised using today's exchange rate I'm earning less than I was 10 years ago in the UK even though I'm earning the most since moving to NZ.
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Old Jul 18th 2015, 11:33 pm
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by barnsleymat View Post
I've just realised using today's exchange rate I'm earning less than I was 10 years ago in the UK even though I'm earning the most since moving to NZ.

Exactly the same for me too.
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Old Jul 19th 2015, 7:03 am
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by barnsleymat View Post
I've just realised using today's exchange rate I'm earning less than I was 10 years ago in the UK even though I'm earning the most since moving to NZ.
Originally Posted by Bo-Jangles View Post
Exactly the same for me too.
Me too!
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Old Jul 19th 2015, 7:24 am
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Default Re: Currency

But on the flip side the cost of living has gone from Unbelievably Expensive down to just Incredibly Expensive.

Let's not just dwell on the bad stuff people, every cloud and all that.
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Old Jul 19th 2015, 7:58 am
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by barnsleymat View Post
Let's not just dwell on the bad stuff people, every cloud and all that.
There is a good side to this for me.

I transferred my UK Pension money into a QROPS scheme a few years ago but at the time I could not bring myself to accept a switch to local currency at the low rate of 1GBP=2.5NZD so most of the money has sat in UK assets.

The exchange rate has been worse than that ever since but I still have hope that one day that money will provide a healthy pension income if I wait long enough.
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Old Jul 19th 2015, 9:23 am
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Clappy View Post
There is a good side to this for me.

I transferred my UK Pension money into a QROPS scheme a few years ago but at the time I could not bring myself to accept a switch to local currency at the low rate of 1GBP=2.5NZD so most of the money has sat in UK assets.

The exchange rate has been worse than that ever since but I still have hope that one day that money will provide a healthy pension income if I wait long enough.
Same here. We recently transferred our UK pensions into a QROPS scheme in NZ and decided to retain the funds in GBP's until the exchange rate trended upwards so at the moment it's going the right way for us and by all accounts the kiwi $ is only gonna become weaker, especially when the Reserve Bank of NZ lowers the OCR again in a few days in an attempt to halt and then recover the NZ economy in light of the dairy crisis.
We're also going through the motions selling our UK home so it appears we may have timed it right having a healthy GBP sum ready for transfer and exchange in to kiwi $........fingers crossed!
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