Currency

Old Feb 16th 2013, 7:23 pm
  #31  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Genesis View Post
The pound is heading towards the low 1.80s now, round about 1.84. How low do you think it might go? I reckon we could see it below 1.70 some day soon.
Tony Alexander of the BNZ has remarks the 55-60 range now "beckons". 60 pence to the dollar = 1.67 cents to the pound.

Whether we see 1.70 this year depends (I think) on the following:

Factors weakening sterling to NZD:
1. whether the BOE prints more sterling (likely)
2. whether the RBNZ raises interest rates to control house price increases (unlikely)

Vice versa
1. whether the UK economy surges in the next 12 months (unlikely)
2. whether the RBNZ lowers interest rates to help exporters (again, unlikely).
3. whether the NZ economy weakens (unilkely)

What on earth will that do to exports and tourism?
I don't think tourism's ever been that great an export earner, and in any event tourists from the UK have already dropped right off. If sterling continues to weaken, it won't have much further effect.

NZ is getting more tourists from the Far East anyway.

I wonder how many people will be tempted back to the UK by selling up here and getting such a good rate? Those who are happy will obviously stay but those with doubts this could be the deciding factor.
Me. What with UK house prices outside London stagnating or falling and NZ house prices (including where I am) on the rise, plus the exchange rate drop, I could now realise enough equity in my house to buy a very decent house on a small mortgage (I just need to find a job, and I'm not very willing to move over without one as I have dependents).

Actually, prices in London aren't bad now, if one looks beyond the average - skewed in my view by sales at the top end of the market.
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Old Feb 17th 2013, 1:03 am
  #32  
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Default Re: Currency

A question for those with sterling-denominated investment portfolios: is the weak pound meaning double-digit increases for you?
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Old Feb 17th 2013, 4:07 am
  #33  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by _0v0_ View Post
A question for those with sterling-denominated investment portfolios: is the weak pound meaning double-digit increases for you?
Sorry don't understand the question. We have pounds in the UK...double didgit????
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Old Feb 17th 2013, 5:22 am
  #34  
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Smile Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Genesis View Post
Good God...this will make the kiwi rocket further, I said it would get worse. I wonder how long before 1 for 1???
Parity is a long way off. In the short term though with oil at over $100/barrel and the policy of BOE/the conservative coalition the UK is stuffed.

At least we make things people want to buy even if low value comodities.
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Old Feb 17th 2013, 8:24 am
  #35  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by _0v0_ View Post



I don't think tourism's ever been that great an export earner, and in any event tourists from the UK have already dropped right off. If sterling continues to weaken, it won't have much further effect.

.
Are you crackers? Tourism is(or was) the number 1 earner for NZ!

http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct...-_mEbO9ZX0QgdQ

http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct...ujm7VhiMq5PFMA
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Old Feb 17th 2013, 8:31 am
  #36  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Robbie2010 View Post
Yeah a while back I heard dairy was about some thing like 13ish billion and tourism was around the 9-10 billion mark for NZ.
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Old Feb 17th 2013, 9:10 am
  #37  
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Default Re: Currency

The GBP has dropped 36% in value against the NZ$ in the last 4 years.
From my own position, this is pretty catastrophic. I was hoping to go back to NZ when my Mother passes away, do some part-time work, and then retire after a few years. The exchange rate is now so bad, my chances of doing this are now just about zero.
My 'loss' due to the exchange rate (at present) runs to literally hundreds of thousands of dollars, and makes my return to NZ FAR less attractive than just a few years ago.
Very, very depressing. . . .
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Old Feb 17th 2013, 9:15 am
  #38  
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Default Re: Currency

I was talking to some friends in Oz. They were saying that Aussies consider Nz a cheap destination for a holiday. The NZ dollar has depreciated against the Oz. I think the same probably applies against the Chinese. Not sure. So tourism probably isnt affected that much because theyre the two biggest markets.
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Old Feb 17th 2013, 2:57 pm
  #39  
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Default Re: Currency

Are a lot of people leaving their money in the UK until they need it? Does the higher savings rate in NZ offset some of the loss?
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Old Feb 17th 2013, 7:46 pm
  #40  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Synky View Post
Are a lot of people leaving their money in the UK until they need it? Does the higher savings rate in NZ offset some of the loss?
Yes I am. I worked out the exchange rate vs the savings rate and the difference was in the thousands in favour of leaving it in the UK. I use it to make internet purchases though, and I'm back there for a month in July so will be taking over an empty case and buying up large.

Fortunately I don't need it right now, but the ideal would be to buy a house here. I'm getting good rental income on my London property though.
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Old Feb 17th 2013, 8:45 pm
  #41  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Rolfie View Post
The GBP has dropped 36% in value against the NZ$ in the last 4 years.
From my own position, this is pretty catastrophic. I was hoping to go back to NZ when my Mother passes away, do some part-time work, and then retire after a few years. The exchange rate is now so bad, my chances of doing this are now just about zero.
My 'loss' due to the exchange rate (at present) runs to literally hundreds of thousands of dollars, and makes my return to NZ FAR less attractive than just a few years ago.
Very, very depressing. . . .
I feel for you Rolfie...why do things conspire agin us so much? Get my UK pensions cashed in coinciding with the worst forex rate in years. Have money in the UK that is all but stranded there for ever more. Really wanted it over here to get on with my life. I understand I am lucky to be here but the last 8 years in NZ have been so peppered with issues that its not funny anymore. Some people say 'you must have rocks in your head if you think the RBNZ should try to bring the value of the kiwi down'. Well if nothing is done and the kiwi keeps rising in the meteoric fashion it has how will that affect the already crippled export market of NZ, the tourism industry and people just plain not coming here to live and those that do live here will leave to cash in on their kiwis and live somewhere that was previously unaffordable? It all looks very, very bleak to me...unless I sell up and return to the UK.
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Old Feb 17th 2013, 8:52 pm
  #42  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Synky View Post
Are a lot of people leaving their money in the UK until they need it? Does the higher savings rate in NZ offset some of the loss?
In the last 6 months we have seen $60k knocked off our UK money if we changed it today. It would take 7.5years in NZ to recoup that if we took the crap rate today and invested it over leaving it in the UK for the next 7.5 years. I do hope there will be some reversal of fortune in the next 7 years.

Some will say it will get worse..I do and yes it will but it has got so bad now I would not change a dollar. My absolute minimum is $2.10.

If that don't happen the money stays put. $1.80 and below? With respect any one who can change at that is so committed to NZ they deserve a medal. If I had been moving now and there had been the drop there has during the process that we have seen in the last 9 months or so I would NOT do the move. Part of the rationale of moving was being cashed up.

The very best of luck to anyone contemplating a big forex deal now and the new life in NZ...you are very, very, very brave.
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Old Feb 18th 2013, 12:08 am
  #43  
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Default Re: Currency

RBNZ could try the Swiss approach of buying other currency to remain within a target range. Rates really need to rise now though to bring property in line with wage growth and inflation, a fair bit of this prosperity is unlocked equity and that could swing either way on rates.
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Old Feb 18th 2013, 1:20 am
  #44  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
RBNZ could try the Swiss approach of buying other currency to remain within a target range. Rates really need to rise now though to bring property in line with wage growth and inflation, a fair bit of this prosperity is unlocked equity and that could swing either way on rates.
Ah, but what currency? The Yanks are busy printing their currency into oblivion - only the 'petrodollar', (in which all oil purchases must be made) is keeping that afloat. They will be generations earning that money back... http://www.usdebtclock.org/

And now that China and Russia are using gold to buy oil....

The Japanese seem to be flushing the yen down the toilet, as fast as it will go.

The Germans seem to be fed up with carrying the rest of Europe, and are getting their physical gold back from the New York depositories - wouldn't surprise me to see them dumping the Euro and going back to the Deutschmark, letting Spain, Italy and the like sink into the ocean.

Have any of you with 'large' GBP holdings considered transferring your stash into physical gold and/or silver? Silver is presently (IMHO) undervalued, being artificially downgraded. At least your money would retain it's value, no matter how far down the GBP drops, and you might even make a profit. Do your homework.... it's a bit of an eyeopener.

And good luck.
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Old Feb 18th 2013, 2:46 am
  #45  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by downunderpom View Post
Have any of you with 'large' GBP holdings considered transferring your stash into physical gold and/or silver? Silver is presently (IMHO) undervalued, being artificially downgraded. At least your money would retain it's value, no matter how far down the GBP drops, and you might even make a profit. Do your homework.... it's a bit of an eyeopener.

And good luck.
Yeah, I've thought about but who would you use as there doesn't appear to be anyone like hifx around?
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