Currency

Old Feb 28th 2013, 11:22 pm
  #196  
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Default Re: Currency

Good to see the graph finally trending up a little after recent weeks!
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...to=NZD&view=1W
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Old Mar 1st 2013, 12:00 am
  #197  
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Default Re: Currency

From my point of view and I handle imports so Forex is something I try to keep a finger on, there are several factors that need to change before there is any seismic shift in the strength of the Kiwi Dollar.

Overseas factors
* Economically Europe (this includes the UK) is buggered, countries like Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal are all lodestones dragging the EU down. And its going to get worse, before it gets better.

* The US economy has the potential to implode and the government seems unwilling to do anything to fix it, because it would mean making idealogical compromises from both parties.

* Low Interest Rates for a lot of EU countries, you can borrow at 1-2% and stick it in a NZ deposit account and make a margin. This attracts foreign investment funds like pensions.

NZ Factors

* High Interest rates, as mentioned above. This is different to the "official" OCR, but the rates set by the retail banks.

* Milk! NZ's primary export, currently getting high commodity prices. It's the engine that drives the economy.

* Housing market, esp Auckland. I would agree that it is over heated, but even if the bubble burst like in 2008, its gonna bounce back up within a couple of years.

So read into that what you will. IMO, nothing is going to change dramatically.

Of course I could be completely wrong! I read about other peoples opinion and there are enough "experts" out there voicing their opinion to have lots of conflicting views.

If you are in the UK and wanting to come over here, prepare yourself for this type of fiscal reality. Anything different would be a bonus!
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Old Mar 1st 2013, 12:14 am
  #198  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Catchafire View Post
From my point of view and I handle imports so Forex is something I try to keep a finger on, there are several factors that need to change before there is any seismic shift in the strength of the Kiwi Dollar.

Overseas factors
* Economically Europe (this includes the UK) is buggered, countries like Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal are all lodestones dragging the EU down. And its going to get worse, before it gets better.

* The US economy has the potential to implode and the government seems unwilling to do anything to fix it, because it would mean making idealogical compromises from both parties.

* Low Interest Rates for a lot of EU countries, you can borrow at 1-2% and stick it in a NZ deposit account and make a margin. This attracts foreign investment funds like pensions.

NZ Factors

* High Interest rates, as mentioned above. This is different to the "official" OCR, but the rates set by the retail banks.

* Milk! NZ's primary export, currently getting high commodity prices. It's the engine that drives the economy.

* Housing market, esp Auckland. I would agree that it is over heated, but even if the bubble burst like in 2008, its gonna bounce back up within a couple of years.

So read into that what you will. IMO, nothing is going to change dramatically.

Of course I could be completely wrong! I read about other peoples opinion and there are enough "experts" out there voicing their opinion to have lots of conflicting views.

If you are in the UK and wanting to come over here, prepare yourself for this type of fiscal reality. Anything different would be a bonus!
I don't think there will be a big shift down wards re the kiwi any time soon. But then I am always wrong about this kind of stuff!!
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Old Mar 1st 2013, 2:12 am
  #199  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Catchafire View Post
From my point of view and I handle imports so Forex is something I try to keep a finger on, there are several factors that need to change before there is any seismic shift in the strength of the Kiwi Dollar.

Overseas factors
* Economically Europe (this includes the UK) is buggered, countries like Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal are all lodestones dragging the EU down. And its going to get worse, before it gets better.

* The US economy has the potential to implode and the government seems unwilling to do anything to fix it, because it would mean making idealogical compromises from both parties.

* Low Interest Rates for a lot of EU countries, you can borrow at 1-2% and stick it in a NZ deposit account and make a margin. This attracts foreign investment funds like pensions.

NZ Factors

* High Interest rates, as mentioned above. This is different to the "official" OCR, but the rates set by the retail banks.

* Milk! NZ's primary export, currently getting high commodity prices. It's the engine that drives the economy.

* Housing market, esp Auckland. I would agree that it is over heated, but even if the bubble burst like in 2008, its gonna bounce back up within a couple of years.

So read into that what you will. IMO, nothing is going to change dramatically.

Of course I could be completely wrong! I read about other peoples opinion and there are enough "experts" out there voicing their opinion to have lots of conflicting views.

If you are in the UK and wanting to come over here, prepare yourself for this type of fiscal reality. Anything different would be a bonus!
At last - someone else who sees past the gov't / media spin!

The gov'ts in EU (and more so in the US) keep telling their people that 'all is well'. Well, it isn't. The US now owes more in pensions / medicare / promises than the entire country is worth - $122T vs $94T. http://www.usdebtclock.org/ and the Fed is printing worthless paper at a rate of $US85Billion a MONTH.

If "USA Inc." was a business they'd be declared bankrupt.

Gordon Brown sold more than half of the UK's gold at bargain basement prices while Chancellor, losing the country billions of pounds. No-one in either gov't is prepared to make the hard calls to sort it out.

First, stop the printers!!!

It's my humble opinion that it going to get a lot worse in the Northern Hemisphere before it ever gets better. That's why I'm buying PM, and planting gardens. Veggie gardens, that is!
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Old Mar 1st 2013, 3:07 am
  #200  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by downunderpom View Post
At last - someone else who sees past the gov't / media spin!

The gov'ts in EU (and more so in the US) keep telling their people that 'all is well'. Well, it isn't. The US now owes more in pensions / medicare / promises than the entire country is worth - $122T vs $94T. http://www.usdebtclock.org/ and the Fed is printing worthless paper at a rate of $US85Billion a MONTH.

If "USA Inc." was a business they'd be declared bankrupt.

Gordon Brown sold more than half of the UK's gold at bargain basement prices while Chancellor, losing the country billions of pounds. No-one in either gov't is prepared to make the hard calls to sort it out.

First, stop the printers!!!

It's my humble opinion that it going to get a lot worse in the Northern Hemisphere before it ever gets better. That's why I'm buying PM, and planting gardens. Veggie gardens, that is!
Noted today that gold has dropped back a bit...thought it would be well over the $1600 mark, surprised it is well below that.
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Old Mar 1st 2013, 3:24 am
  #201  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Genesis View Post
Noted today that gold has dropped back a bit...thought it would be well over the $1600 mark, surprised it is well below that.
If you do some research, (in the 'alternative' postings, not the main stream media), you'll find a lot of information.

This is one:
http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/8...orning-mugging

If charts and graphs are your thing, it's an interesting read. They do say that a picture paints a thousand words, and you can't argue with hard numbers.
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Old Mar 3rd 2013, 9:44 pm
  #202  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Genesis View Post
How low do you think it might go? I reckon we could see it below 1.70 some day soon. What on earth will that do to exports and tourism? More over how do people feel who are on the move now about the huge drop in the pound in the last 12 months or so? Our UK money will likely never see NZ now and will stay there for ever. A real shame in some ways as I was hoping to have all my eggs in the one currency.
My plan is currently not to liquidate my UK assets. I am renting the house out an leaving my old UK pension. My hope is that some point in 10-20 years there will be a good time to make the change.

More than one currency can be good. I left some funds in Canada 10 years ago and the bonds interest really help pay when I visit family there.
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Old Mar 3rd 2013, 10:17 pm
  #203  
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Originally Posted by Engel View Post
My plan is currently not to liquidate my UK assets. I am renting the house out an leaving my old UK pension. My hope is that some point in 10-20 years there will be a good time to make the change.

More than one currency can be good. I left some funds in Canada 10 years ago and the bonds interest really help pay when I visit family there.
This is what we're doing, save for renting out a house in the UK, as we don't own one. Just leaving savings and pension stuff here for now.

Most aren't in a position to do this, however.
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Old Mar 3rd 2013, 11:38 pm
  #204  
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Originally Posted by TommyLuck View Post
This is what we're doing, save for renting out a house in the UK, as we don't own one. Just leaving savings and pension stuff here for now.

Most aren't in a position to do this, however.
The US has had some horrible figures out, the UK appears to be well into a 3rd recession and the EU zone is so in the shite one wonders if they will ever get out of it. It looks like it will get a lot worse before it eventually gets better (when hell freezes over I assume). I am not gloating as I have money in the UK that I would prefer here.
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Old Mar 3rd 2013, 11:43 pm
  #205  
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Of course.

The dream of course is to own a property in NZ and one in UK to open up all options.

As it stands there is no necessity to take any £'s to NZ, and all being well there will never need to be allowing us to invest in property in the UK in time. But, it's there IF we need it.

The dream is a 20/25 year plan.

I know you weren't gloating, btw.
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 5:30 am
  #206  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by TommyLuck View Post
Of course.

The dream of course is to own a property in NZ and one in UK to open up all options.

As it stands there is no necessity to take any £'s to NZ, and all being well there will never need to be allowing us to invest in property in the UK in time. But, it's there IF we need it.

The dream is a 20/25 year plan.

I know you weren't gloating, btw.
It fell to .5540 today. That means it has dropped below $1.80 now. The UK has had some shite inflation figures over night. It is not a case of the strong dollar really these days, its the totally screwed pound. Not good at all. How/why does anyone still want to come at this price?
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 6:35 am
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Genesis View Post
It fell to .5540 today. That means it has dropped below $1.80 now. The UK has had some shite inflation figures over night. It is not a case of the strong dollar really these days, its the totally screwed pound. Not good at all. How/why does anyone still want to come at this price?
If you go back historically on the forum there are many examples (im one of them) who was dreaming of an NZ$ collapse - aint gonna happen. Every so often a news article comes up about how its hurting exports...........nothing changes. The government arent arsed. They arent bothered about european tourism anymore - theyve put their eggs in the australian (strongest currency going at the mo) and asian (proximity) baskets.

The pound is getting weaker and weaker vs the dollar and it isnt gonna change anytime soon im afraid
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 7:58 am
  #208  
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Originally Posted by zaras dad View Post
If you go back historically on the forum there are many examples (im one of them) who was dreaming of an NZ$ collapse - aint gonna happen. Every so often a news article comes up about how its hurting exports...........nothing changes. The government arent arsed. They arent bothered about european tourism anymore - theyve put their eggs in the australian (strongest currency going at the mo) and asian (proximity) baskets.

The pound is getting weaker and weaker vs the dollar and it isnt gonna change anytime soon im afraid
I know, I reckon it will get much worse as the Uk blunders into more and even deeper shite while the NZ $$ continues its spiral out of control into never seen before highs. We have interest rates poised to go up to cool the over heating NZ house market which will only serve to fuel the increase of the kiwi. Like me if you have pounds they are pretty much useless anywhere other than in a UK bank unless of course you are between a rock and a hard place and on the cusp of leaving the UK, committed to doing a big forex deal.
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 11:45 am
  #209  
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Default Re: Currency

Originally Posted by Genesis View Post
How/why does anyone still want to come at this price?
Personally?

My wife owns commercial property in Auckland and takes an income from it, the mortgage is nearly paid off.

We are both in a strong postion to take up job roles in Auckland with our current employers in London.

She has also recently come in to a meaty inheritance from a NZ family member.


The latter didn't actually impact on our decision to move initially. The relevant family member was alive and reasonably well (for an octogenarian) at the time.
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 3:00 pm
  #210  
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Also some people dont have much money in the UK anyway so they arent really losing it by moving if they just bring enough for a rental etc. I dont mean me personally, just in general. I can understand why people who have a lot more money find it harder
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