Coronavirus

Old Aug 7th 2020, 9:11 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Bo-Jangles View Post
Seems our Ministry of Health is signalling some level of defeat with the latest recommendation for households to make sure they have sufficient masks for every member of the household. Way to go, seems like Hipkins aim is to re-ignite the economy with a second wave of panic buying - he may as well have said, off you go and buy every scrap of toilet paper and hand sanitiser whilst you're at it.
That was actually a statement meant to take the heat off the government who later announced that unemployment would hit 10% in the coming months and perhaps even higher. Governments cleverly do this to distract the public, anyone with a braincell knows it's only a matter of time before it's among the community, we can't stay locked down forever otherwise expect a new mass exodus

Last edited by paddy234; Aug 7th 2020 at 9:15 am.
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Old Aug 7th 2020, 9:42 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

I saw an alarmist forecast for a 4 to 8% increase in unemployment (currently just over 4%.)

The upper end of that forecast doesn't make sense to me because it implies about 200,000 people being made unemployed. That would mean about 7.5% of this countries entire labour force being made redundant within one quarter which doesn't square with the rate companies can reduce headcount in my view. Another way to think of this is that MBIE say about 380,000 people are directly or indirectly employed in tourism but, when you look at the worst affected public companies like AirNZ, they have only cut about 40% of their headcount so far.

It will painful but I think the full effects will take time.
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Old Aug 7th 2020, 10:03 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
I saw an alarmist forecast for a 4 to 8% increase in unemployment (currently just over 4%.)

The upper end of that forecast doesn't make sense to me because it implies about 200,000 people being made unemployed. That would mean about 7.5% of this countries entire labour force being made redundant within one quarter which doesn't square with the rate companies can reduce headcount in my view. Another way to think of this is that MBIE say about 380,000 people are directly or indirectly employed in tourism but, when you look at the worst affected public companies like AirNZ, they have only cut about 40% of their headcount so far.

It will painful but I think the full effects will take time.
The finance minister just claimed yesterday it was expected to reach near 10% https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/...r-10-per-cent/

This statement was just to soften the blow for whats to come. As for how painful it will be, it a depends how NZ reacts, the longer it isolates itself the more catastrophic it will be. If a vaccine is just around the corner then it will all have been worth it but if by the end of the year no vaccine is in sight they will need to change their strategy otherwise we will be in and out of lock-downs and border closures which no nation can afford

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Old Aug 7th 2020, 11:29 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
I saw an alarmist forecast for a 4 to 8% increase in unemployment (currently just over 4%.)

The upper end of that forecast doesn't make sense to me because it implies about 200,000 people being made unemployed. That would mean about 7.5% of this countries entire labour force being made redundant within one quarter which doesn't square with the rate companies can reduce headcount in my view. Another way to think of this is that MBIE say about 380,000 people are directly or indirectly employed in tourism but, when you look at the worst affected public companies like AirNZ, they have only cut about 40% of their headcount so far.

It will painful but I think the full effects will take time.
8% might not be too far off the mark, depends how things go globally, NZ can't be insulated. The recent 'decline' of unemployment in the last period is statistical anomaly to just over 4%, it's based on people looking for work, which was practically impossiible in the lockdown 3 and 4, and also so many jobs protected 'til Sepetmber with the govt wage supplement. More likely to be nearer 6% now.
And upcoming wage supplement disappears, heaps of jobs in tourist sector gone in short term, likewise hospitality too.

Your last sentence spot on, this isn't going away.
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Old Aug 7th 2020, 8:56 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

US had issued a travel warning against New Zealand. Stay safe you guys!

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Old Aug 8th 2020, 10:48 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Aim high, then when it comes in 1 or 2% lower, claim it's down to Queen Jacinda and her excellent leadership.

Loved her attempt at a Trump rally today, it was so contrived it was laughable
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Old Aug 10th 2020, 10:13 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Bo-Jangles View Post
Seems our Ministry of Health is signalling some level of defeat with the latest recommendation for households to make sure they have sufficient masks for every member of the household. Way to go, seems like Hipkins aim is to re-ignite the economy with a second wave of panic buying - he may as well have said, off you go and buy every scrap of toilet paper and hand sanitiser whilst you're at it.
It was not really a huge surprise that one or two people might try breaking-out of managed isolation, but if people are going to break in too then a second wave has to be a distinct possibility. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/...ation-facility
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Old Aug 11th 2020, 9:51 am
  #593  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

And here we are - back to Level 3 Lockdown and no school tomorrow.
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Old Aug 11th 2020, 10:28 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Bo-Jangles View Post
And here we are - back to Level 3 Lockdown and no school tomorrow.
Bloody hell (sorry for the swearing) damn groundhog Day everywhere
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Old Aug 11th 2020, 11:20 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Yup, the Covid gift that keeps on giving. I can't see that we'll ever be totally rid of it.
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Old Aug 11th 2020, 11:25 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

I welcome the second wave of panic buying toilet roles.
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Old Aug 11th 2020, 11:31 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
I welcome the second wave of panic buying toilet roles.
I've just seen on Facebook news this has already started...
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Old Aug 11th 2020, 11:46 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Kicking myself really that I didn't get a chance to get to the shops over the past few days, as I felt sure this was on the cards as soon as they started saying everyone should stock up on masks at the end of last week.
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Old Aug 12th 2020, 12:19 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Bo-Jangles View Post
...I felt sure this was on the cards as soon as they started saying everyone should stock up on masks at the end of last week.
Mine are still on order (probably somewhere between China and here.)

I wasn't surprised at the localised Auckland lockdown but I was surprised that they increased the level for the rest of the country until I heard that that they'd been to the central North Island. Hopefully the police have headed off the people heading away to their holiday houses this time, it would be unforgivable to make the same mistake twice.
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Old Aug 12th 2020, 7:53 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
Hopefully the police have headed off the people heading away to their holiday houses this time, it would be unforgivable to make the same mistake twice.
Seems the police were onto it and caught quite a few that were heading for the hills.
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