Charismatic

​​​​​All but doomed now, borders will likely reopen when the vaccine has been rolled out.

Charismatic

Won't he have to wait for borders to reopen?

I can understand that however. The very slow vaccine rollout across the EU and UK means far more people will catch the virus than be vaccinated over the first quarter (possibly second as well.) For example the UK only plans to vaccinate 13m people by 15th of February (two and a half months into its program) but around 2% of British people currently have the virus with an R of 1.1 to 1.3 and an average cycle time of 8.5 days. Not only does the virus have a head start but it's also growing at a rate far higher than the UKs capacity to vaccinate. Despite the monumental effort of pharmaceutical companies to deliver a working and tested vaccine early those countries are failing in their vaccination programs. I only hope this summer comes early because that's their best bet.

That's why in New Zealand, while I appreciate it's the Kiwi way to be relaxed and chill, when the vaccine is made available we should be more like Israel than other OECD countries in vaccinating very rapidly. The faster we can get to the 70% level Dr. Bloomfield wants the less time New Zealand remains exposed to danger.

Mishclark

That's what I think, better that way anyway.

Timmy Chch

Bad luck if hes moving from uk to aussie to escape the misery - Brisbane locking down now due to new variant potentially in community.

Mishclark

Yep, one of my sister's lives there, I found out through her, although she's not too fussed as doesn't go anywhere much anyway.

Better to do it now than diddle around like the NSW premier.

Justcol

Yes, I imagine he would

Charismatic

Already Israels rapid vaccination plan is providing interesting data. This plan the UK had that one shot of vaccine will protect people really seems to be called into question by the numbers Israel is publishing. Having vaccinated 22% of their total population over 3 weeks with the first jab it appears their cases and deaths having continued rising throughout. They've started the second round of jabs this weekend so we'll have to keep an eye on it over the next 2 to 4 weeks how this progresses and where the tipping point might be but it looks like people might need both to experience the a substantial benefit.

Apparently the Johnson&Johnson vaccine, which is the single shot vaccine I hear New Zealand has purchased, is going up for approval in February in the UK so we'll keep an eye on that. I'm not sure if it will help the UK much unfortunately because infection and death rates are still in an exponential growth phase.

Charismatic

Early results are in for Johnson&Johnson's effort, this seems to be where New Zealand has puts its coin:

"Johnson&Johnson's experimental one-shot Covid-19 vaccine generated a long-lasting immune response in an early safety study, providing a glimpse at how it will perform in the real world...
...
More than 90% of participants made immune proteins,..., within 29 days after receiving the shot, according to the report, and all participants formed the antibodies within 57 days. The immune response lasted for the full 71 days of the trial.
...
Within weeks, J&J will learn how its vaccine performed in a late-stage trial of 45,000 volunteers."

They do emphasise however the the duration a vaccine might remain effective is still unknown which is flexibility we will need to build into our health system.

Timmy Chch

5 million single shots ordered of Johnson & Johnson, obvs covers 5 mil.
7.6 mil of oxford vaccine will cover 3.8 mil people.
750,000 of Pfizer will cover 375,000 peeps.
10.7 mil doses of Novavax will cover half again.
Jacinda bought extra to cover Pacific islands too but surely 15 odd million full doses is way too many?

Bo-Jangles

I assume making allowance for all the folks who will be wanting a double shot.

Charismatic

"Double Pfizer on the rocks for me please.

...So what's a nice nurse like you doing in a place like this?" On second thoughts better not, they'll probably put away the normal small syringe and pull out something that looks like a rusty box cutter.


Hedging risk is probably the answer. Like when you're on holiday shopping for biscuits but you don't know what the good types are in that country so you throw several types into the basket hoping for a hit. If we end up giving some biscuits (or vaccine) away to poorer countries in the Far East (or is it the near north to us?) region it'll only raise our profile. Maybe it's the right thing that larger, better resourced countries settle the tab.


Edit to add: I should have said "...on holiday and shopping for biscuits...", I promise I don't go on holidays just to indulge in filthy biscuit tourism.

Timmy Chch

On a way more important note, has anyone been able to buy bovril for a while now?! Swear its sold out everywhere and been no imports for ages!
and tinned lychees!

Bo-Jangles

Supplies of lots of things have not returned to normal and l notice increasing amounts of empty spaces on the shelves in my local supermarkets. I haven't been able to get quite a few of my regular favourites, including pasta spirals and Best Foods Lite Mayonnaise, for quite some time. There's a queue of at least a dozen container ships stuck in the Hauraki gulf waiting to unload I suspect there will be truckloads of stuff including your Bovril and Christmas stuff still stuck out there,

Mishclark

I can't believe this thread was started nearly a year ago, and I was happily living in NZ.
Who would have thought all this would happen.
My head is still spinning, I still haven't processed March!

Charismatic

Funny enough I haven't noticed that Bovril is out of stock.