Coronavirus
Aug 7th 2020, 9:11 am
#586
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jun 2013
Location: Perth
Posts: 623
Re: Coronavirus
Seems our Ministry of Health is signalling some level of defeat with the latest recommendation for households to make sure they have sufficient masks for every member of the household. Way to go, seems like Hipkins aim is to re-ignite the economy with a second wave of panic buying - he may as well have said, off you go and buy every scrap of toilet paper and hand sanitiser whilst you're at it. 
Last edited by paddy234; Aug 7th 2020 at 9:15 am.
Aug 7th 2020, 9:42 am
#587
Truth is the safest lie.
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: @ the beach.
Posts: 7,240
Re: Coronavirus
I saw an alarmist forecast for a 4 to 8% increase in unemployment (currently just over 4%.)
The upper end of that forecast doesn't make sense to me because it implies about 200,000 people being made unemployed. That would mean about 7.5% of this countries entire labour force being made redundant within one quarter which doesn't square with the rate companies can reduce headcount in my view. Another way to think of this is that MBIE say about 380,000 people are directly or indirectly employed in tourism but, when you look at the worst affected public companies like AirNZ, they have only cut about 40% of their headcount so far.
It will painful but I think the full effects will take time.
The upper end of that forecast doesn't make sense to me because it implies about 200,000 people being made unemployed. That would mean about 7.5% of this countries entire labour force being made redundant within one quarter which doesn't square with the rate companies can reduce headcount in my view. Another way to think of this is that MBIE say about 380,000 people are directly or indirectly employed in tourism but, when you look at the worst affected public companies like AirNZ, they have only cut about 40% of their headcount so far.
It will painful but I think the full effects will take time.
Aug 7th 2020, 10:03 am
#588
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jun 2013
Location: Perth
Posts: 623
Re: Coronavirus
I saw an alarmist forecast for a 4 to 8% increase in unemployment (currently just over 4%.)
The upper end of that forecast doesn't make sense to me because it implies about 200,000 people being made unemployed. That would mean about 7.5% of this countries entire labour force being made redundant within one quarter which doesn't square with the rate companies can reduce headcount in my view. Another way to think of this is that MBIE say about 380,000 people are directly or indirectly employed in tourism but, when you look at the worst affected public companies like AirNZ, they have only cut about 40% of their headcount so far.
It will painful but I think the full effects will take time.
The upper end of that forecast doesn't make sense to me because it implies about 200,000 people being made unemployed. That would mean about 7.5% of this countries entire labour force being made redundant within one quarter which doesn't square with the rate companies can reduce headcount in my view. Another way to think of this is that MBIE say about 380,000 people are directly or indirectly employed in tourism but, when you look at the worst affected public companies like AirNZ, they have only cut about 40% of their headcount so far.
It will painful but I think the full effects will take time.
This statement was just to soften the blow for whats to come. As for how painful it will be, it a depends how NZ reacts, the longer it isolates itself the more catastrophic it will be. If a vaccine is just around the corner then it will all have been worth it but if by the end of the year no vaccine is in sight they will need to change their strategy otherwise we will be in and out of lock-downs and border closures which no nation can afford
Aug 7th 2020, 11:29 am
#589
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: permanently locked down
Posts: 733
Re: Coronavirus
I saw an alarmist forecast for a 4 to 8% increase in unemployment (currently just over 4%.)
The upper end of that forecast doesn't make sense to me because it implies about 200,000 people being made unemployed. That would mean about 7.5% of this countries entire labour force being made redundant within one quarter which doesn't square with the rate companies can reduce headcount in my view. Another way to think of this is that MBIE say about 380,000 people are directly or indirectly employed in tourism but, when you look at the worst affected public companies like AirNZ, they have only cut about 40% of their headcount so far.
It will painful but I think the full effects will take time.
The upper end of that forecast doesn't make sense to me because it implies about 200,000 people being made unemployed. That would mean about 7.5% of this countries entire labour force being made redundant within one quarter which doesn't square with the rate companies can reduce headcount in my view. Another way to think of this is that MBIE say about 380,000 people are directly or indirectly employed in tourism but, when you look at the worst affected public companies like AirNZ, they have only cut about 40% of their headcount so far.
It will painful but I think the full effects will take time.
And upcoming wage supplement disappears, heaps of jobs in tourist sector gone in short term, likewise hospitality too.
Your last sentence spot on, this isn't going away.
Aug 7th 2020, 8:56 pm
#590
Truth is the safest lie.
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: @ the beach.
Posts: 7,240
Aug 8th 2020, 10:48 am
#591
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jul 2007
Location: bottom of the world
Posts: 4,533
Re: Coronavirus
Aim high, then when it comes in 1 or 2% lower, claim it's down to Queen Jacinda and her excellent leadership.
Loved her attempt at a Trump rally today, it was so contrived it was laughable
Loved her attempt at a Trump rally today, it was so contrived it was laughable
Aug 10th 2020, 10:13 pm
#592
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: Auckland
Posts: 463
Re: Coronavirus
Seems our Ministry of Health is signalling some level of defeat with the latest recommendation for households to make sure they have sufficient masks for every member of the household. Way to go, seems like Hipkins aim is to re-ignite the economy with a second wave of panic buying - he may as well have said, off you go and buy every scrap of toilet paper and hand sanitiser whilst you're at it.
Aug 11th 2020, 9:51 am
#593
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jun 2005
Location: In a large village called Auckland
Posts: 5,249
Re: Coronavirus
And here we are - back to Level 3 Lockdown and no school tomorrow.
Aug 11th 2020, 11:20 am
#595
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jun 2005
Location: In a large village called Auckland
Posts: 5,249
Re: Coronavirus
Yup, the Covid gift that keeps on giving. I can't see that we'll ever be totally rid of it.
Aug 11th 2020, 11:25 am
#596
Truth is the safest lie.
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: @ the beach.
Posts: 7,240
Re: Coronavirus
I welcome the second wave of panic buying toilet roles.
Aug 11th 2020, 11:46 am
#598
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jun 2005
Location: In a large village called Auckland
Posts: 5,249
Re: Coronavirus
Kicking myself really that I didn't get a chance to get to the shops over the past few days, as I felt sure this was on the cards as soon as they started saying everyone should stock up on masks at the end of last week.
Aug 12th 2020, 12:19 am
#599
Truth is the safest lie.
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: @ the beach.
Posts: 7,240
Re: Coronavirus
I wasn't surprised at the localised Auckland lockdown but I was surprised that they increased the level for the rest of the country until I heard that that they'd been to the central North Island. Hopefully the police have headed off the people heading away to their holiday houses this time, it would be unforgivable to make the same mistake twice.
