hallie_day

I would do a trial.

Pom_Chch

Fair enough, we have to live in hope that some day we will go overseas again!

Most airlines will be fine, people will have seriously itchy feet after all this and will want to book trips. It might be the death of some airlines but the birth of others in future.

When we first moved here, we didn't go back to the UK for 4 years and not many people came to visit so realistically it's not much different to usual. Just part and parcel of emigrating.

BEVS

Good, true , even post.

Charismatic

Too late, here is the projected timeline for different efforts to be approved:

chocolate cake

In current circumstances quarantine fees are only sensible, however looking across to Australia and Victoria, now invoking a stricter Melbourne lockdown than the original and than the earlier level 4 here (except for work), you can only think that could easily have been NZ. The recent Melbourne implosion entirely the result of failures in the hotel quarantine on returnees, the same failures that were originally shown here 4 or 5 weeks ago, just lucky there was no big outbreak.
However the Victoria troubles mean inevitably there's not going to be Australian NZ travel bubble this year. Moreover it has to question whether elimination is a realistic target, besides the ongoing hotel quarantine risks, there's airport staff, and Air NZ that must carry the risk of spreading inevitable infection.
We can only hope something comes out these vaccination efforts.

hallie_day

Charismatic - I meant in theory as I suspect none of those studies are NZ based and we've already concluded there's no getting out!

The WHO have just announced that there is unlikely to be a one size fits all 'silver bullet' to vaccinate against covid, in the near future, possibly ever.

Sensible countries need to be looking at a plan b.
Improvements in testing?
The UK announced a revolutionary new test this week that produces results in 90 minutes
Effective treatments so we can live with covid?
Remdesivir, manufactured anti-bodies, 'super' plasma, steroids/dexamethasone.... compared to previous viruses, the world is working a million miles an hour to learn about Covid.

With 'only' 0.65% of those infected now dying, by keeping the number of infections very low, we could probably keep deaths below the figure for annual flu deaths but keep some semblance of normality.

I'm very worried about my dad in the UK. He fell and is now in hospital with 7 rib fractures. NZ feels very remote at times like this.

Charismatic

I still think the bubble could work with those Australian states that are free of the virus. If anything Australias policy has been more closely aligned to NZ with Scomo saying they are now effectively aiming for elimination.

The lockdown in Victoria certainly shows that the progressive isolation measures doesn't work because public compliance reduces over time.
We will as well, that's why Iceland is so interesting as a case study on how to reopen borders safely.

Sorry to hear about your old man, hope he makes a speedy recovery. Chin up 'n' that!
​​​​​​​

chocolate cake

Don't get me wrong, I'm pleased where we are having seemingly beaten the virus, and would much rather be here than anywhere else at the moment, wearing facemasks almost compulsory in manyt places, or into revised lockdowns only allowed out for 1 hours exercise.

However I'd think there's zero chance of Aussie bubble with those states free of the virus unless Victoria recovers and quickly, as that would go down like a lead balloon over there.
As to elimiation, all the Aussie states were practically in the same place as us 6 weeks ago, even Victoria. The outbreak in Victoria as I say entirely from returnees in hotel quarantine, and that could so easily have been us in Auckland or Christchurch and might still be. Lucky in that with that couple at the start let out before any test, proving to have coranvirus but thankfully didn't infect anyone else.

NZ has got big interest in Melbourne/Victoria being quelled and under control by the new 6 week lockdown, because if not Australia likely to have no other alternative than managed control like in Europe now, ending any prospect of Aussie bubble. The second lockdown will be much more difficult to manage.

NZ needs to have a plan B, and it needs to be communicated, are we prepared to be isolated until the end of next year? What are the costs and how ican it be managed. Sure the recesssion may be less than Eurpoe and the resto of the world initially, given that tourism excepted, things are close to normal, but as other countries are opening up, there's no chance of same in NZ without a vaccine. Sure vaccine may be successful given all the efforts put in to it, and might irradicate the coranvirus, like smallpox was years ago. But there's every chance it might not either, aids/hiv for instance has been around for decades and no cure.

In the present circumstances, if nothing else is going to be debated, the election might as well be postponed for 3 or 4 months, if these, recovery planbs and other none cornavirus issues are not important enough to debate.

hallie_day

I read this last night and it does make me wonder where this commonly held prediction leaves NZ:

One outcome is now looking almost certain: This virus is never going away.

The coronavirus is simply too widespread and too transmissible. The most likely scenario, experts say, is that the pandemic ends at some point—because enough people have been either infected or vaccinated—but the virus continues to circulate in lower levels around the globe. Cases will wax and wane over time. Outbreaks will pop up here and there. Even when a much-anticipated vaccine arrives, it is likely to only suppress but never completely eradicate the virus (For context, consider that vaccines exist for more than a dozen human viruses but only one, smallpox, has ever been eradicated from the planet, and that took 15 years of immense global coordination. We will probably be living with this virus for the rest of our lives.

In the best-case scenario, a vaccine and better treatments blunt COVID-19’s severity, making it a much less dangerous and less disruptive disease. Over time, SARS-CoV-2 becomes just another seasonal respiratory virus, like the four other coronaviruses that cause a sizable proportion of common colds: 229E, OC43, NL63, and HKU1. These cold coronaviruses are so common that we have likely all had them at some point, maybe even multiple times. They can cause serious outbreaks, especially in the elderly, but are usually mild enough to fly under the radar. One endgame is that SARS-CoV-2 becomes the fifth coronavirus that regularly circulates among humans.

Charismatic

We'll see. I can't see the uninfected states opening internal borders either so the Australians may eventually be compelled to confront their single-ply national pride and let Victoria et. al. get on with their own thing. Noted that they have set a new record again today, they have yet to see measures have any impact.

Charismatic

Yeah, we probably give everyone who wants a jab the chance to get one and then get back to business as usual with testing at the ready. From there it can be rolled into the general flu vaccination program. You can lead a horse to water...

Mishclark

Qld just shut their borders as of midnight this coming Saturday to all of NSW and Act, as people have been trying to sneak to Qld via Act.

​This is why we can't have nice things...

Bo-Jangles

Seems our Ministry of Health is signalling some level of defeat with the latest recommendation for households to make sure they have sufficient masks for every member of the household. Way to go, seems like Hipkins aim is to re-ignite the economy with a second wave of panic buying - he may as well have said, off you go and buy every scrap of toilet paper and hand sanitiser whilst you're at it.

Charismatic

I'd tell another joke about Coronavirus, but New Zealanders won't get it.

Mishclark

As long as we get it who cares 😁