2 for 1 forever?
#1
2 for 1 forever?
The GBP has been roughly around $2nz for 1gbp for what seems like forever bar a while back when we had a wee spike we had 2.08. Still have some money in the Uk only earning 2% and I think the time has come to maybe bite the bullet and get it over here to get the 4% or thereabouts on offer.
The reason I think this is because I recently heard that some learned people in the Uk reckon that the UK economy is heading towards becoming a '3rd world economy'.
I know the kiwi is very high but the gbp is also very, very weak and the outlook does not seem rosy at all.
The NZ Reserve bank WILL NOT intervene to lower the currency so methinks we are stuck at $2 ad finitum.
The reason I think this is because I recently heard that some learned people in the Uk reckon that the UK economy is heading towards becoming a '3rd world economy'.
I know the kiwi is very high but the gbp is also very, very weak and the outlook does not seem rosy at all.
The NZ Reserve bank WILL NOT intervene to lower the currency so methinks we are stuck at $2 ad finitum.
#2
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
I was hoping this was going to be a BOGOF thread... you know, buy one, get one free or 2 for the price of 1.
Genesis, you are probably right but hey, life is so short to worry about something that may or may not improve, so do what you have to do, enjoy good health and your family, and be happy
Genesis, you are probably right but hey, life is so short to worry about something that may or may not improve, so do what you have to do, enjoy good health and your family, and be happy
#3
221b Baker Street
Joined: Jun 2010
Location: Miles from anywhere, Victoria, Australia.
Posts: 14,125
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
If I'm sticking nose in where not required - please say so.
AFAIK interest rates in UK are net - i.e. the bank pays the tax for you.
In Oz (and I wonder if it is the same in NZ) rates are gross and come tax time, one has to pay the tax on interest earned.
So 2% net against 4% gross - is there much in it? My maths aren't much good.
Aus dollar is doing the same to me. When I moved here 2.6 was the norm, now it's 1.56 at best.
AFAIK interest rates in UK are net - i.e. the bank pays the tax for you.
In Oz (and I wonder if it is the same in NZ) rates are gross and come tax time, one has to pay the tax on interest earned.
So 2% net against 4% gross - is there much in it? My maths aren't much good.
Aus dollar is doing the same to me. When I moved here 2.6 was the norm, now it's 1.56 at best.
#4
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
If I'm sticking nose in where not required - please say so.
AFAIK interest rates in UK are net - i.e. the bank pays the tax for you.
In Oz (and I wonder if it is the same in NZ) rates are gross and come tax time, one has to pay the tax on interest earned.
So 2% net against 4% gross - is there much in it? My maths aren't much good.
Aus dollar is doing the same to me. When I moved here 2.6 was the norm, now it's 1.56 at best.
AFAIK interest rates in UK are net - i.e. the bank pays the tax for you.
In Oz (and I wonder if it is the same in NZ) rates are gross and come tax time, one has to pay the tax on interest earned.
So 2% net against 4% gross - is there much in it? My maths aren't much good.
Aus dollar is doing the same to me. When I moved here 2.6 was the norm, now it's 1.56 at best.
#5
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
I was hoping this was going to be a BOGOF thread... you know, buy one, get one free or 2 for the price of 1.
Genesis, you are probably right but hey, life is so short to worry about something that may or may not improve, so do what you have to do, enjoy good health and your family, and be happy
Genesis, you are probably right but hey, life is so short to worry about something that may or may not improve, so do what you have to do, enjoy good health and your family, and be happy
#6
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 472
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
There's always the chance of Murphy's Law Genesis (or is it Sod's Law .. one of those laws anyway). ie you wait years and years for the NZ dollar to fall, nothing happens, you decide to bite bullet and change your dough to NZ dollars, and the very next day the NZ dollar crashes. That's the sort of thing that would happen to me. I swear.
The trouble is, even the financial analysts are prone to major stuff ups in their predictions.
The trouble is, even the financial analysts are prone to major stuff ups in their predictions.
#7
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: Auckland
Posts: 463
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
The question is will that change sooner or later or never?
I wish I knew!
I am reminded of the reason that I quit Economics courses when I was at University. One day the lecturer stood at the front of the lecture theatre and said
For the next three weeks we will be covering how the currency markets work. Of course, if I really knew how the currency markets worked I wouldn't be stood here today talking to you, I would be making my fortune playing the currency markets.
#8
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
I'm seriously considering my options on this front at the moment, my gut instinct is to keep the money in the UK. The money isn't absolutely critical to take with me and not all of it is in regular savings accounts, a reasonable proportion is in a Stocks and Shares ISA.
I think the least likely event we'll see is the NZD getting significantly stronger on the GBP - so I don't anticipate losing much, if anything by not moving over my GBP's sooner rather than later anyway.
I have taken a little risk recently however; to cut a long story short, I just paid something in the UK in GBP's to the tune of £3,640.38, to be exact.
$7,600 has been paid in to a NZ bank account awaiting my arrival next year, good deal? It appears to be right now, come my arrival in NZ? We'll see.
I think the least likely event we'll see is the NZD getting significantly stronger on the GBP - so I don't anticipate losing much, if anything by not moving over my GBP's sooner rather than later anyway.
I have taken a little risk recently however; to cut a long story short, I just paid something in the UK in GBP's to the tune of £3,640.38, to be exact.
$7,600 has been paid in to a NZ bank account awaiting my arrival next year, good deal? It appears to be right now, come my arrival in NZ? We'll see.
#9
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
There's always the chance of Murphy's Law Genesis (or is it Sod's Law .. one of those laws anyway). ie you wait years and years for the NZ dollar to fall, nothing happens, you decide to bite bullet and change your dough to NZ dollars, and the very next day the NZ dollar crashes. That's the sort of thing that would happen to me. I swear.
The trouble is, even the financial analysts are prone to major stuff ups in their predictions.
The trouble is, even the financial analysts are prone to major stuff ups in their predictions.
#10
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
It won't stay 2:1 forever just as it hasn't stayed 2.5:1, 1.9:1 or any other rate. Will it go up or down....well you know what I think of the long term trend, buck it at your peril.
Not to say there won't be short- and even medium-term shifts against the trend and you can make a crrency shift out of the rates at any two points in time if you've a mind to....but the 10yr trend line just goes one way...
Not to say there won't be short- and even medium-term shifts against the trend and you can make a crrency shift out of the rates at any two points in time if you've a mind to....but the 10yr trend line just goes one way...
#11
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: permanently locked down
Posts: 733
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
It won't stay 2:1 forever just as it hasn't stayed 2.5:1, 1.9:1 or any other rate. Will it go up or down....well you know what I think of the long term trend, buck it at your peril.
Not to say there won't be short- and even medium-term shifts against the trend and you can make a crrency shift out of the rates at any two points in time if you've a mind to....but the 10yr trend line just goes one way...
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=NZD&view=10Y
Not to say there won't be short- and even medium-term shifts against the trend and you can make a crrency shift out of the rates at any two points in time if you've a mind to....but the 10yr trend line just goes one way...
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=NZD&view=10Y
#12
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jul 2007
Location: bottom of the world
Posts: 4,533
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
I think we've ;earned that everything in the markets is nothing but speculation.
It's like the blind leading the blind.
If it was me I'd cut and run and make the most of a bad situation.
It's like the blind leading the blind.
If it was me I'd cut and run and make the most of a bad situation.
#13
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
My sentiments entirely. Now I just need the balls to do it..that could be a tricky one!
#14
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
Genesis, or anyone else for that matter;
When you've transferred your sterling to NZD's what are the normal charges applied to transfer the cash from your UK account to you NZ account?
It is flat rate, or a percentage. Just curious.
When you've transferred your sterling to NZD's what are the normal charges applied to transfer the cash from your UK account to you NZ account?
It is flat rate, or a percentage. Just curious.
#15
Re: 2 for 1 forever?
So say I changed up at 2.50 and did 10,000gbps I got $25k NZ and 10k gbps left my bank acct. The total transaction cost me 10k sterling exactly.
There may well be charges if you do the forex thru your bank..I dunno about that. But when you exchange with a big forex dealer they make their money on the rate you changed at..there are no other charges.