The Vote

Old Jun 25th 2016, 12:46 pm
  #16  
 
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Default Re: The Vote

Originally Posted by verystormy
For clarity, I am putting my lawyers hat on, which I don't do often.

The treaty is actually pretty clear - one of the few bits that it is clear on.

Article 50 states that once a state gives notice under article 50, there is a period of up to 2 years to finalise the terms of exit. If no finalisation has occurred by then end of two years, then the exit is automatic. So, stop reading garbage in the press.

In reality, I suspect, given the statements from the EU, that it will be much quicker. Though Cameron may delay the article 50 trigger until he leaves office in September / October
An exit after two years is only automatic unless all parties agreed to an extension. It also occur sooner should a withdrawal agreement be decided upon and enter into force. Here's the full text:

Article 50

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
That being said, leaving the EU is not the same as removing EU legislation from the UK statute books. Parliament need only remove the European Communities Act 1972 which incorporates EU law and gives it primacy in the UK. The unpicking of 40 years of legislation when we decide which bits to keep or chuck will take much longer.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 3:55 pm
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Default Re: The Vote

Originally Posted by Perth
I am sure they are feeling it immediately. The rest will soon enough. There is a petition with over 1.3 million asking for a recall. I'm sure that won't happen, but I will bet a shilling that there are a number in there that voted Leave the first time.
1.3 million that's about how many more voted leave, so if that's a viable opinion then I guess so is the 1.3 million extra citizens that voted to leave.

They could just say we ain't doing it, it is a silly idea Cameron had smoking some crack and make up some cell phone pics to back it up, that be a better way out for the remain side
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 5:26 pm
  #18  
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Default Re: The Vote

The fall in the pound is not just going to be felt by the 'fatcats'. It's effect on the price of petrol will show in the price at the pumps next week. Other price rises will follow.
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Old Jun 25th 2016, 8:58 pm
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Default Re: The Vote

Originally Posted by magnumpi
1.3 million that's about how many more voted leave, so if that's a viable opinion then I guess so is the 1.3 million extra citizens that voted to leave.
Or the 1.3 million could be remain voters that don't want to accept the results.

As a brexiter, I think the vote was too close and the UK is split down the middle, there should have been a contingency.
I never understood why some sort of clause was not included when the referendum was announced. A simple clause that required x amount of the voting population to vote and the winning vote needed to be x amount over and above or else we have a second referendum. Had that been the case then we would have been going to the polls for a second vote. It may have given Cameron an opportunity to renegotiate with the EU Commission and get a better deal.
I think most voters would have been happy to remain if Cameron had gained what he asked for, maybe include a clause that if remain won and the EU failed to honor the concessions then an option to hold a second referendum.

Anyway, its all water under the bridge now. We have to move onwards and upwards, unite and be positive about the future.
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Old Jun 26th 2016, 2:52 am
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Default Re: The Vote

Disagree. If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away*. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

*07/06/2016: Mr Cameron has said he would swiftly invoke Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty to begin exit negotiations, but Michael Gove, the pro-Brexit justice secretary, says “no responsible government” would act so hastily.

A more likely scenario is that Britain’s EU membership is put on ice while the Conservatives first decide who should replace Mr Cameron as prime minister, with the task of suing for divorce.'

'Ken Clarke, the former Tory chancellor, predicts that Mr Cameron “would not last 30 seconds” if he lost the referendum, but appointing his successor would take a little longer.

*23/06/2016: ''David Cameron said yesterday in the House of Commons that it does. He said, ‘If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger Article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away."

So who fancies a quick spot of career suicide?
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Old Jun 26th 2016, 7:08 am
  #21  
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Default Re: The Vote

I've just been reading a couple of articles expressing similar ideas!

S
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Old Jun 26th 2016, 7:20 am
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Default Re: The Vote

Originally Posted by Charismatic
Disagree. If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away*. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

*07/06/2016: Mr Cameron has said he would swiftly invoke Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty to begin exit negotiations, but Michael Gove, the pro-Brexit justice secretary, says “no responsible government” would act so hastily.

A more likely scenario is that Britain’s EU membership is put on ice while the Conservatives first decide who should replace Mr Cameron as prime minister, with the task of suing for divorce.'

'Ken Clarke, the former Tory chancellor, predicts that Mr Cameron “would not last 30 seconds” if he lost the referendum, but appointing his successor would take a little longer.

*23/06/2016: ''David Cameron said yesterday in the House of Commons that it does. He said, ‘If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger Article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away."

So who fancies a quick spot of career suicide?
Great analysis - Cameron has effectively further compounded the UK's position in this crisis. By not standing by his word, staying on whatever the outcome and leading the UK out of the EU, he has plunged the UK into limbo while we wait for new leadersip which is not healthy.

We need leadership now! If he truly loved the UK as he said he did then he should implement article 50 now and stop holding up and delaying moving the UK forward. In reality, Cameron should have stayed neutral in the debate so that he could stay on and implement the outcome. He only has himself to blame.
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Old Jun 26th 2016, 8:07 am
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Default Re: The Vote

I haven't had my morning coffee yet so excuse my rants…


Cameron mismanaged everything, from the moment he walked away from the EU Commission to calling the referendum without some kind of back stop, to the scaremongering and his finale as resigning as minister.
He told the country that we never quit yet within an hour of the result he quits, abandons ship and jumps overboard!

I never understood how he could approach the commission saying this stinks and we need to change or else we will leave, then later turn around and say, you know what it stinks if we leave so we better stay! Total loss of credibility and lack of leadership.

Cameron will go down in history as the worst Prime Minister ever, who destroyed his country and then abandoned ship.
The same for all the other ministers who quit. They are first into the life boats.

And as for the rest of the UK union who are threatening to leave. If we stay together we CAN succeed.
If you leave and go it alone then your future is more unstable than ours.
Even if EU membership was on the cards, how long do you think the EU will survive?
With no UK and no EU you are really going to be a very small insignificant country.
Stick with us and see it through, You need us as much as we need you.

Last edited by bobbyleo; Jun 26th 2016 at 8:24 am.
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Old Jun 26th 2016, 10:38 am
  #24  
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Default Re: The Vote

Originally Posted by Perth
How did you come up with 7 years? Thought it was 2.

On another note, I guess we will all need new passports! And I just renewed mine
I have seen a report that current UK passports would run their full term to expiry.
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Old Jun 26th 2016, 1:35 pm
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Default Re: The Vote

I agree that this kind of seachange decision affecting many future generations should have required a larger mandate. 52-48 is not a mandate and is grossly unfair to almost half the population. The youth now see their future options narrowed considerably as the country looks inward and isolates itself.

I disagree with another post that this was all somehow Cameron's fault. He put his heart and soul in trying to keep the UK within the EU. His earlier statements about invoking article 50 was meant to emphasize the gravity of Brexit consequences. I'm glad he wasn't neutral and took a stand on what he thought was the best course for the country.

I'm not normally sympathetic with the Conservative Party, but Cameron was a prime minister of high integrity and wanted the best for the nation in my opinion. I came to admire and respect him and am sorry to see his political career and service end this way.

Last edited by Richard8655; Jun 26th 2016 at 1:56 pm.
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Old Jun 26th 2016, 1:40 pm
  #26  
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Default Re: The Vote

Originally Posted by Charismatic
Disagree. If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away*. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

*07/06/2016: Mr Cameron has said he would swiftly invoke Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty to begin exit negotiations, but Michael Gove, the pro-Brexit justice secretary, says “no responsible government” would act so hastily.

A more likely scenario is that Britain’s EU membership is put on ice while the Conservatives first decide who should replace Mr Cameron as prime minister, with the task of suing for divorce.'

'Ken Clarke, the former Tory chancellor, predicts that Mr Cameron “would not last 30 seconds” if he lost the referendum, but appointing his successor would take a little longer.

*23/06/2016: ''David Cameron said yesterday in the House of Commons that it does. He said, ‘If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger Article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away."

So who fancies a quick spot of career suicide?
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Old Jun 26th 2016, 1:43 pm
  #27  
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Default Re: The Vote

Originally Posted by bromleygirl
Great analysis - Cameron has effectively further compounded the UK's position in this crisis. By not standing by his word, staying on whatever the outcome and leading the UK out of the EU, he has plunged the UK into limbo while we wait for new leadersip which is not healthy.

We need leadership now! If he truly loved the UK as he said he did then he should implement article 50 now and stop holding up and delaying moving the UK forward. In reality, Cameron should have stayed neutral in the debate so that he could stay on and implement the outcome. He only has himself to blame.
Napoleon comes to mind. Can we exile Cameron to some small island somewhere?

A funny tweet from the parody account, Elizabeth Windsor: "Yes, hello, this is the Queen. Could one order a taxi please? Picking up at Downing Street and dropping off in the arse end of nowhere."
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Old Jun 26th 2016, 2:39 pm
  #28  
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Default Re: The Vote

Originally Posted by Perth
I believe this article appeared in the Guardian. Interesting!
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Old Jun 26th 2016, 6:16 pm
  #29  
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Default Re: The Vote

Originally Posted by michali
I believe this article appeared in the Guardian. Interesting!
It did. The poster really should have credited their source
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Old Jun 26th 2016, 9:15 pm
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Default Re: The Vote

Originally Posted by Richard8655
I agree that this kind of seachange decision affecting many future generations should have required a larger mandate. 52-48 is not a mandate and is grossly unfair to almost half the population. The youth now see their future options narrowed considerably as the country looks inward and isolates itself.

I disagree with another post that this was all somehow Cameron's fault. He put his heart and soul in trying to keep the UK within the EU. His earlier statements about invoking article 50 was meant to emphasize the gravity of Brexit consequences. I'm glad he wasn't neutral and took a stand on what he thought was the best course for the country.

I'm not normally sympathetic with the Conservative Party, but Cameron was a prime minister of high integrity and wanted the best for the nation in my opinion. I came to admire and respect him and am sorry to see his political career and service end this way.

Fact: Cameron campaigned on a platform of obtaining reform from the EU.
Fact: Cameron called the referendum.
Fact: Cameron decided to not only participate but also lead the Remain side.
Fact: Cameron stated he would continue to be PM regardless of the result and implement article 50 if the result so required it.
Fact: Cameron resigned as soon as the result was against him.


If you say you are going to do something then do it. Don't walk away because you didn't win.


Was he an ok PM before? - yes, but on this he got it totally wrong.
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