sallysimmons

This real estate boom was so ridiculous that I don't think it's like 1995. When you look at house value charts going back 100 years and more, you can see that there has never been a bubble as extreme as this one.

Just looking around where I live, I can't believe we've reached the bottom yet. We don't have anywhere near the foreclosures some places do, but still hardly any houses are selling and simple logic says that's because the prices are too high. Until home owners accept the real value of their homes and not the value they imagine or wish for, I don't see things picking up at all. And once they do accept it, the entire market will go down quite a bit. Any increases will come on top of a much deflated baseline.

exvj

I have the experience of working in a 30% wage inflation era and getting 4 raises a year.

I think house prices can boom because of the population/availability ratio.
It regularly does that in the UK whether there is inflation or not

House booms NEVER fail to re-appear. They are like charismatic politicians - expect the next one soon. I remember Harold Wilson. The first 100 days. The white heat of the technological revolution. Then they sit there and do nothing for 15 years. Seen it before. Margaret was different but jeez !
Kill em all let god sort em out.

She said that 10% unemployment means that 90% of people have got jobs. It's unfeeling but true actually - the planes are full and the streets are thronged. It's not doomsday at all and this will turn as always.

dunroving

So is it safe to assume your answer to my question is "Yes"?

ExBritFL

Well, just yesterday another house two doors down from ours went on the market. Two storey home and probably around 1500 sq feet bigger. It's on the market for $70,000 less than ours. The pictures show a disgraceful interior with mould and stains on the walls and a house that looks as if it had seen better days when first built six years ago.

The owners are still living in the property with their extended families and had apparently stopped paying their mortgage months ago. The house is now a short sale. In the meantime, they live there with their big SUV's and without a care in the world, for free.

exvj

I don't expect that wage inflation will reach double digits and I don't think your statement that only that will spark the housing market is correct.

These are complex matters and it's not so simple

exvj

Some things never change - I know a council house in the UK where the tenant has just bought a brand new Range Rover with her inheritance. Many of her neighbours are heroin addicts and the druq squad smash their front doors in at 5am

dunroving

Duh, I guess my PhD don't cut the mustard then. I'm just too dumb to understand these complex things.

exvj

I am sorry you are <like you said> but at least you are aware of your situation so don't give up hope trying to find out

I can assure you that nobody is able to predict double digit wage inflation or whether the housing market might pick up at levels of wage inflation below double digits.

I am a Finance Professional too with lots of letters and spend many hours every day grappling with these issues and that is why I know that it is impossible for anyone to predict and it is complex. The Secretary to the Treasury is unable to predict it and I venture to say that he might know more about it than either you or I.

dunroving

I'm so glad you didn't use the D-word about me, that's very kind of you, and I sure won't give up hope trying to figure out all this complex money stuff. No, suh.

exvj

I applaud your determination and hope you succeed

dunroving

I can but try, and hope for the best.

Sally Redux

.

dunroving

If I get me some of those, will I understand high finance, and house prices and all that stuff? You know, because it's so complex I need all the help I can get.

Sally Redux

I'm afraid you will still need to spend several hours a day grappling with it

exvj

I don't think it is fair to the OP to turn this serious thread in a serious forum into the trailer park. I know you guys have followed me here from there and I knew from way back what your motives were - but please have some respect for the OP in this 'above the line' forum.