Editha

Evidence BiP?

Moses2013

I don't know if you know Jersey Channel Islands and they've done similar for years. A lot of lower skilled jobs require 5 years residency and when it comes to housing you also have qualified and non qualified. However, because the island is so small the problems still remain and they have overcrowding, high property prices for all.

BritInParis

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/sta...ion-statistics

Migration from the 'Accession 8' countries and latterly Bulgaria and Romania stands at 1,277,000 since 2004. Bearing in mind that the ONS's definition of a migrant is someone who states on arrival that they intend to stay for more than twelve months then you could conservatively double that figure based on the number of NI numbers being issued. By 2010 alone the Home Office had issued one million Worker Registration Scheme certificates to A8 workers.

Bermudashorts

But Brexit hasn't happened yet.

I made this comment on another thread the other day, some Remainiac repeating over and over again that the reason the sky hasn't fallen in is because Brexit hasn't happend yet. Then a few pages later they said their friend lost job because of Brexit.

Bermudashorts

You think big businesses make their profits in US$? Why on earth would you think that. Multinationals make their profits in many different currencies and will hedge their real (as opposed to accounting) FX exposures.

A UK headquartered multinational will indeed consolidate the accounts from many different curries into GBP and hence have a FX impact for accounting purposes only. But how many UK HQ multinationals do you have think have actually reported profits since June 23? Not many. Certainly not enough to drive the FTSE and in any case analysts / traders would be very well aware of the impact of accounting FX gains and would make allowances for that.

Moses2013

Exactly and small businesses close every day with or without a so called Brexit. It's always been the same and some people will win and others will lose. People also always talk about house prices dropping and how terrible that might be. No, not for the first time buyer who can finally maybe afford a home.

nun

Brexit won't make the sky fall. But it will slowly erode the UK's economy and it's soul. We can see that in the way Liam Fox is ok with suggesting that the current rights of EU citizens living in the UK will be used in the negotiations.

BritInParis

HMG has already stated they wish to guarantee the rights of EU citizens already resident in the UK. It's the EU refusing to make any promises before Article 50 is invoked that is the stumbling block.

nun

HMG said that a few weeks ago, but speeches at the Conservative conference from hard Brexit fans like Liam Fox have put those rights back on the table as a bargaining chip. This is probably why Hollander was so tough in his speech yesterday

BritInParis

Only because the EU wants to show it's willing to play hardball to stop others from considering jumping ship. It's just both sides wanting to be billy big bollocks. Transitional arrangements for existing residents will be the first thing to be agreed come April.

Bermudashorts

Well of course there has to be a negotiation over what happens to EU citizens in UK and British citizens living in Europe. The UK can hardly make a promise that EU citizens can stay without securing same promise for British citizens overseas. It is one of many things that requires discussion. But the upshot will be that everyone currently in situ will be free to stay where they are because how on earth could anything else be even physically possible.

There is no answer to the comment about the British economy or its soul. Other than stop being so melodramatic. It will be fine.

Giantaxe

Stocks move largely on future expectations. So the fact that not many companies have reported since June 23rd is moot at this point. Additionally, the FTSE 100 certainly hasn't soared in dollar (or, to a lesser, extent Euro) terms. According to the latest Economist, the FTSE 100 is 3.7% lower in dollar terms than it was at the start of the year. Essentially the collapse of the pound has made UK shares a relative bargain for many.

nun

The status of EU citizens resident in the UK and UK citizens resident in the EU will be interesting to follow, but for those involved it will be a worrying time while the politicians play with their futures after initial assurances that there was nothing to worry about.

I understand that many people feel happy...or at least sanguine....at the retreat from Europe and the restrictions on the movement of labour across the UK border that will result. I don't feel that way and believe that it's the continuation of a historical decline that the UK might have avoided by staying in the EU. The rise of nationalism also worries me greatly and I see Brexit as part of that as for all the high minded reasons one can state for Brexit, it passed largely on xenophobia that was encouraged by Grove and Farage.

Maybe I am being melodramatic, but I simply don't want to live in England anymore because I'm so disappointed with it.

nun

It looks like our discussion about citizen's rights and Brexit isn't as interesting as the discussion (or arguments) happening inside HMG. Liam Fox put the situation of EU citizens living in the UK up for negotiation and The Home Office looks like it just pulled the rug from under him by saying that all EU citizens currently in the UK will be residents or given amnesty. I wonder how much of it was at the PM's prompting or is it some Hard vs Soft Brexit antagonism. So we are back to "don't worry"......your move Liam?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...o-remain-in-uk


Every EU migrant can stay in UK after Brexit: all 3.6 million to have residency rules or get amnesty

Bermudashorts

I was responding to the poster that stated that the FTSE increase was due to higher profits for multinationals due to FX gains upon consolidation -so not even real gains but purely accounting ones! Which is absurd. Actually reported profit has little impact on the FTSE unless it is something majorly unexpected because as you say share price is about future expectations and analysts will have a good feel for what to expect for the current period.

The FTSE isn't in dollars so that is also moot. Obviously it will have dropped if you want to make an arbitrary conversion into dollars.

The fall in the pound may have made shares cheaper for overseas investors, but the main investors in UK listed companies will be UK entities and shares did not become cheaper for them on June 24th.

For the overseas investors, well the shares they have bought since June are worth less to them every day at the moment because they will ultimately have to cash them in in pounds and then use pounds to buy back their own currency. So if overseas investors are buying UK stock in droves then the overseas investors must also expect sterling to recover. (As do I).