It's not all Bad........

Old Feb 25th 2009, 11:33 pm
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Default It's not all Bad........

I rang the UK this morning to speak to a reliable source (business contact). He said the market town to which we are returning still has most of it's specialist shops plus it's getting Waitrose and Monsoon. He's not happy because turnover is down a little but the same old shops are still there since I left 5 years ago plus some new big names are about to open.

I remain confused by the media stories of how the UK economy is in dire straits and that the UK is in deep recession.
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Old Feb 25th 2009, 11:41 pm
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

Originally Posted by cricket1 View Post
I rang the UK this morning to speak to a reliable source (business contact). He said the market town to which we are returning still has most of it's specialist shops plus it's getting Waitrose and Monsoon. He's not happy because turnover is down a little but the same old shops are still there since I left 5 years ago plus some new big names are about to open.

I remain confused by the media stories of how the UK economy is in dire straits and that the UK is in deep recession.
I think there's a lot to be said about spreading positive vibes on the situation. If everyone speaks of doom it will no doubt happen (or at least worsen the suffering) ... I'm moving back to the UK in a few weeks and still very positive about things, until proven otherwise.
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Old Feb 25th 2009, 11:55 pm
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

Primarks profits were up this year and they are opening 12 new stores.
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Old Feb 26th 2009, 12:28 am
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

What's to be confused about, recession is a term used when there is 3 months of negative growth, that is now the case so we are in a recession, fact. As with all recessions some will be affected badly, some mildly, some not at all and some will positively thrive. It is a fact that our business is being hit hard & a lot of people I know have lost their jobs & no amount of Kentucky fried chicken jobs or supermarket jobs will replace our income if our company goes belly up, so even if people who lose their 'skilled' jobs do find an 'unskilled' one, it doesn't mean they'll be out there doing eejit Brown's bidding and spending in the wider economy :curse:
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Old Feb 26th 2009, 12:44 am
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

Originally Posted by Tricia View Post
What's to be confused about, recession is a term used when there is 3 months of negative growth, that is now the case so we are in a recession, fact. As with all recessions some will be affected badly, some mildly, some not at all and some will positively thrive. It is a fact that our business is being hit hard & a lot of people I know have lost their jobs & no amount of Kentucky fried chicken jobs or supermarket jobs will replace our income if our company goes belly up, so even if people who lose their 'skilled' jobs do find an 'unskilled' one, it doesn't mean they'll be out there doing eejit Brown's bidding and spending in the wider economy :curse:
Actually you are confused because its 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth which is 6 months.
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Old Feb 26th 2009, 12:54 am
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

Originally Posted by Tricia View Post
What's to be confused about, recession is a term used when there is 3 months of negative growth, that is now the case so we are in a recession, fact. As with all recessions some will be affected badly, some mildly, some not at all and some will positively thrive. It is a fact that our business is being hit hard & a lot of people I know have lost their jobs & no amount of Kentucky fried chicken jobs or supermarket jobs will replace our income if our company goes belly up, so even if people who lose their 'skilled' jobs do find an 'unskilled' one, it doesn't mean they'll be out there doing eejit Brown's bidding and spending in the wider economy :curse:
I know what the term 'recession' equates to and I used it loosely to describe my own confusion at how the economy is shrinking in some areas yet clearly expanding in others.

There are currently 500,000 jobs still being advertised in the UK, many of them for skilled workers who seem thin on the ground. Again, I remain confused but open minded to watching and seeing how people's priorities are changing.
The UK is in the most trouble because of it's attitude towards spending money not earned, only borrowed. People amaze me by thinking or even claiming that they are losing 'assets' they never actually owned. Therefore they are having to give up liabilities for which they owe money against.
Hoe Gordon Brown or the government can be held responsible for people's own personal debt levels is beyond me.

I understand the fall out is having an impact on jobs and businesses but I also know that the level of borrowing is staggering, that this situation is nothing that we haven't been through before, and that we will come out of it albeit, there will be some casualties.

I especially don't understand the anger and the bitterness of people who claim they have lost 'everything' when the bank owns most of it.
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Old Feb 26th 2009, 1:26 am
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

Originally Posted by Tricia View Post
What's to be confused about, recession is a term used when there is 3 months of negative growth, that is now the case so we are in a recession, fact. As with all recessions some will be affected badly, some mildly, some not at all and some will positively thrive. It is a fact that our business is being hit hard & a lot of people I know have lost their jobs & no amount of Kentucky fried chicken jobs or supermarket jobs will replace our income if our company goes belly up, so even if people who lose their 'skilled' jobs do find an 'unskilled' one, it doesn't mean they'll be out there doing eejit Brown's bidding and spending in the wider economy :curse:
It seems you are being directly affected, so let me send sympathy.

Someone on the radio called it a reset, not a recession, and he was using history to show that all the recessions and depressions were resets. Things never returned to just the way they were, but they passed, and the overall picture was fine again. That made sense to me.

I see people making long lasting changes and liking it. Buying less "stuff" and in fact getting rid of a lot they'd accumulated. More family and local social activities. Then there are the reluctant economies as well. Less tossing things and buying new. Keeping a car as long as it's running okay. Home cooking.

But a lot of this is going to affect business.

So new businesses will develop and in a few years things will have steadied, but they'll be different. It'll be interesting to see what new business opportunities there are going to be. We had someone here who was going to help people learn to raise chickens. That sounds good.

If I were that way inclined, I'd look at a business helping people to have their own vegetable garden. Helping prepare the land and choose stuff to plant, set up irrigation or whatever support they needed. Be available to take care of it if they're away. In fact, I'd hire such a company once I was settled!

Let's come up with some ideas. What items or services would you pay for now if they were available?

Bev
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Old Feb 26th 2009, 1:34 am
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

Originally Posted by Bevm View Post
It seems you are being directly affected, so let me send sympathy.

Someone on the radio called it a reset, not a recession, and he was using history to show that all the recessions and depressions were resets. Things never returned to just the way they were, but they passed, and the overall picture was fine again. That made sense to me.

I see people making long lasting changes and liking it. Buying less "stuff" and in fact getting rid of a lot they'd accumulated. More family and local social activities. Then there are the reluctant economies as well. Less tossing things and buying new. Keeping a car as long as it's running okay. Home cooking.

But a lot of this is going to affect business.

So new businesses will develop and in a few years things will have steadied, but they'll be different. It'll be interesting to see what new business opportunities there are going to be. We had someone here who was going to help people learn to raise chickens. That sounds good.

If I were that way inclined, I'd look at a business helping people to have their own vegetable garden. Helping prepare the land and choose stuff to plant, set up irrigation or whatever support they needed. Be available to take care of it if they're away. In fact, I'd hire such a company once I was settled!

Let's come up with some ideas. What items or services would you pay for now if they were available?

Bev

Spot on Bev and yes, like you, I sympathise with Tricia. However, diversity is going to be the key. I'm going home with a fashion manufacturing business. At last! Stuff that's not going to be coming out of China and will last.
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Old Feb 26th 2009, 1:36 am
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

Originally Posted by Bevm View Post
It seems you are being directly affected, so let me send sympathy.

Someone on the radio called it a reset, not a recession, and he was using history to show that all the recessions and depressions were resets. Things never returned to just the way they were, but they passed, and the overall picture was fine again. That made sense to me.

I see people making long lasting changes and liking it. Buying less "stuff" and in fact getting rid of a lot they'd accumulated. More family and local social activities. Then there are the reluctant economies as well. Less tossing things and buying new. Keeping a car as long as it's running okay. Home cooking.

But a lot of this is going to affect business.

So new businesses will develop and in a few years things will have steadied, but they'll be different. It'll be interesting to see what new business opportunities there are going to be. We had someone here who was going to help people learn to raise chickens. That sounds good.

If I were that way inclined, I'd look at a business helping people to have their own vegetable garden. Helping prepare the land and choose stuff to plant, set up irrigation or whatever support they needed. Be available to take care of it if they're away. In fact, I'd hire such a company once I was settled!

Let's come up with some ideas. What items or services would you pay for now if they were available?

Bev

You have just stolen my thunder Bev. Was about to say the exact same thing.
Old style businesses and what has worked and thrived in the past may well not be the future.
That is why i suggested the idea somewhere else on BE motnhs ago that even the car industry will have to re invent itself and in my opinion would be better off concentrating on greener hyrbid car development.
Plus many of these service based IT and other previous indutstires that have made money in the current economy could well be obsolete and new avenues to making money need to be created.

I have been thinking about it for a while now. Still not made up my mind what to do though. I am considering psych nurse training and having some sort of online business to keep me going, but its all just a thought right now.
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Old Feb 26th 2009, 5:17 am
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

What's to be confused about, recession is a term used when there is 3 months of negative growth, that is now the case so we are in a recession, fact
You should check your 'facts'.
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Old Feb 26th 2009, 10:41 am
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

Originally Posted by Tr1boy View Post
You should check your 'facts'.
That's friendly. My main point was to highlight that we ARE in a recession & discuss.

Anyway, Cricket, Bev & Flea, don't misunderstand me I agree with virtually everything you posted. What I think you miss about 'this time' is that it's not just the feckless that are being affected, it's the frugal too. We run a tight ship & employ 3 people, never once gone in to overdraft but the last 6 months turnover has been woeful & for the first time we approached the bank about an overdraft, the hoops they wanted us to jump through & the interest they wanted to charge were quite unbelievable, so much for 'help' for small business. We have now cut wages (our own, not staff) to the bone & have used our own savings to invest in areas that we hope will increase our visability & allow us to adapt to the changing market. This is the problem with running your own business for 14 years, at what point do you decide to pull the plug on your livelihood...crystal ball anyone.

I'd also like to know how pensioners can do anything other than live frugally to help them through, they can't get a job no matter what & rely on their savings, 1% interest will have a huge impact on them, a bad one.

Actually Cricket, there was an interesting programme on recently which looked at those government figures of 500,000 jobs and depending on whose research you believe, there was a compelling argument to show that it was more like 200,000 (approx, can't remember exactly), this govt seems adept at figure manipulation.

I actually think that Brown can and should accept most responsibility for the housing boom, he's been happy enough to take the credit for it whilst so many walked blindly in to his 'dream'. Your last sentence about losing everything Cricket, I assume you mean housing equity ? If so, you are correct, how can you lose what you never tangibly held. However, an important point, the equity might never have been real but the debt required to service it most definitely is & this is where my true bitterness lies. The govt knew perfectly well what they were doing, encouraging loose lending tactics & raking in the huge increases in everything property related from direct taxes to the indirect taxes associated with consumer spending. This wasn't going to happen if property remained affordable. No, I don't have much sympathy for the MEW'ers but there's a whole generation of people over the last 10 years that were sucked in to buying their first homes at ridiculously inflated prices.

I'm not trying to row with anyone, just wanted to point out there are so many things that are different this time, the main one being the size of the bubble created and the extraodinary length of time it has lasted, meaning there is a lot of pain to be had to get us back to a 'sensible' society.
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Old Feb 26th 2009, 12:04 pm
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

Originally Posted by Tricia View Post
...

I actually think that Brown can and should accept most responsibility for the housing boom, he's been happy enough to take the credit for it whilst so many walked blindly in to his 'dream'. Your last sentence about losing everything Cricket, I assume you mean housing equity ? If so, you are correct, how can you lose what you never tangibly held. However, an important point, the equity might never have been real but the debt required to service it most definitely is & this is where my true bitterness lies. The govt knew perfectly well what they were doing, encouraging loose lending tactics & raking in the huge increases in everything property related from direct taxes to the indirect taxes associated with consumer spending. This wasn't going to happen if property remained affordable. No, I don't have much sympathy for the MEW'ers but there's a whole generation of people over the last 10 years that were sucked in to buying their first homes at ridiculously inflated prices.

....
I absolutely, wholeheartedly agree with you. For folks who bought before, maybe 2004-ish (Contrary to what you said, I don't think prices were ridiculous 10 years ago, in fact at that point they had barely returned to pre-1990 levels, in real terms), there's not an issue in that if they sell, they won't lose anything (assuming they didn't increase their mortgage when they re-mortgaged, that is). But anyone who bought in the last 4-5 years is scr*wed. Firstly, they are stuck with negative equity and/or the inability to move/sell/refinance (if they are on a fixed-term deal). Second, they are stuck with extremely high mortgage payments at a time when jobs are looking dodgy (there's talk of redundancies where I work, which is unheard of).

You could say "More fool you for believing what you read in the papers and see on telly" (prices will only go up, get on the ladder now or you'll never be a homeowner, blah, blah). But the fact is that these messages were the result of actions of people we should be able to trust - politicians (don't laugh), financial regulators, bankers (don't laugh).


I think there's good reason to think positively - but we should also consider the poor buggers who through no fault of their own, are in a financial pickle.
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Old Feb 26th 2009, 12:57 pm
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

Originally Posted by cricket1 View Post
I rang the UK this morning to speak to a reliable source (business contact). He said the market town to which we are returning still has most of it's specialist shops plus it's getting Waitrose and Monsoon. He's not happy because turnover is down a little but the same old shops are still there since I left 5 years ago plus some new big names are about to open.

I remain confused by the media stories of how the UK economy is in dire straits and that the UK is in deep recession.
It's nice to hear that it is not as bad as we hear
I am looking to go back after 20+ years in Canada - yes back home
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Old Feb 26th 2009, 2:16 pm
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

Originally Posted by Candy001 View Post
It's nice to hear that it is not as bad as we hear
I am looking to go back after 20+ years in Canada - yes back home
How often did you get back to the UK during your 29 years away? Have you been back recently?
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Old Feb 26th 2009, 2:23 pm
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Default Re: It's not all Bad........

Originally Posted by cricket1 View Post
He said the market town to which we are returning still has most of it's specialist shops plus it's getting Waitrose and Monsoon. He's not happy because turnover is down a little but the same old shops are still there since I left 5 years ago plus some new big names are about to open
This is nice news - our old High Street, which we visited in Sept for the first time in almost 4 years, was a depressing ghost-town. And this was before Woolworths had even shut down in the New Year! There were few shops occupied from a once bustling High Street, and even the charity shops were closing down, sign of the times, I was saddened to see it. Bookies, poundstretcher-type shops and nail salons and tanning salons, they seemed to be thriving, but all the little speciality delis, bakeries, they were gone, not a bookstore in sight.
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