backagen

I'm certain the reality will be nothing remotely like any of these doomsday scenarios! It is a recession, that's all.

Recessions have to happen every so often, and that's just simply a normal part of the economic cycle. Nothing to worry about.

mabozar

go girlfriend

Carol

mabozar

I remember doing all this stuff in college yawn yawn

johnh009

But this recession is man-made and not part of the normal economic cycle. We are, to a degree, in uncharted territory.

Bevm

I know what you mean, but I don't think there is a "natural" economic cycle, is there? That's the trouble, money's mostly a shared hallucination. Even gold has little true value. The Incas saw it as pretty, but not valuable. Corn was valuable. You could eat it.

But recently we pushed this all farther into la-la land by having truly virtual money, electronic money, plastic credit. And futures, and derivatives. Which I don't understand, but I gather they don't exist but were used by people to buy yachts, islands, real estate and some small countries here and there. And that now ordinary Yurtle the Turtles will have to pay for through their taxes.

But we won't even end up with the yachts.

Through the looking glass indeed!

Bev

jad n rich

Australias in fine shape then

They will shortly have similar debt and only 22 million population so on your figures thats nearly 200,000 debt per aussie.

I wonder how many more 'bonus packages" we will get before the penny drops with the public

cricket1again

Funny you should say this. On the news this week Australia reported a $115 billion dollar black hole in loss of tax revenue.

Thing is, i don't quite understand how the world can lose money that never existed. It surely has to be values that have dropped in which case if the value of everything alters, things should start to move forwards again.

highersights

Yes - the UK will be hit perhaps hardest in the world. The dominant sectors - finance and service sectors in particular - are likely to be hardest hit. But...this too shall pass. Taxes will have to go up to reduce Government debt, but other living costs, like housing and goods will likely continue to decrease. Australia is on much safer ground but will experience a recession regardless - but not a depression. Personal debt here is extremely high here, though the banks and Government are on safer ground.

Taking the longer term view (our children and grandchildren), there is a more important problem - climate change. This will likely ravage many parts of Australia with temps of 45degC being a regular summer feature. England will suffer also of course, with loss of fauna and flora, and rising sea levels - but otherwise it is better placed to adapt than many parts of Australia.

cricket1again

Why will England suffer less than Australia? With a black hole of $115 billion dollar losses in tax revenue and an increasing national debt with only 20 million population to pay it all back, plus Australia has to import banking funds directly, how does this make Australia in a position to do much better than the UK? You couldn't be looking through rose tints just a little could you?

cricket1again

That should have read 'why would England suffer more'.

highersights

To be honest I have no reason to paint Australia any better than the UK as I don't intend staying here longer than 6-12 months longer. (Also I am an academic and my job is much safer than most.) But am very wary about returning to what seems to be becoming a depression in the UK. We are keeping our options open, e.g. mainland Europe, US.

The main reason I believe the UK will suffer worse in not about numbers, but about the national psyche. It has to be said that Britain is a glass-half-full country. It is self-depreciating and self critical, and, at the moment, angst-ridded. I lived there only a year ago, and am in regular contact with 10s of people there - about 80-90% of whom I would describe as pessimistic about the UK. Of the people I know here, the reverse is true. Both are infuriating mindsets. The media have to bear a fair bit of responsibility for perpetuating this, but pessimism it is a British trait in my opinion. Australia, as you probably know, is different. Here there is a far more glass-half-full mentality. This may equate to self-deception and certainly media hype, but the feeling is vastly different. In short, I feel that the UK will think itself into a severe recession or depression, while Australia will get away with a more moderate recession.

cricket1again

OK, I understand and on some points agree. The negative mindset of Britain worries me too but I wouldn't let it rule my own life. I actually believe that this is a 'healthy' recession in the sense that people will be forced to re evaluate their priorities.
I thought consumerism Britain was a far more selfish, callous, detached place to live when I was there last (5 years ago). People were egocentric, arrogant and money just solved everything.
I believe that when i return soon, yes, it will be miserable but I also think it will be like a puppy with a tail between it's legs after a ticking off. I think people will more humble, value more meaningful things and be more real in terms of recognising what really matters.
I hope so anyway but I could be proved wrong.
As far as Australia goes, I think it has a different problem. People have got such a strong 'she'll be right mate' attitude that they almost exist in a state of permanent denial. Yes, they are lighter and brighter but honestly, do you feel safe with Wayne Swan and Kevin Rudd steering the country when they gave every family $1,000 for each child to spend at Christmas just to keep them happy? What's going to prop up retail business for the rest of the year and what kind of message is it sending?

highersights

Personally, I would just frightened of the side-effects of recession, in terms of collective mood, social problems and crime. It is really hard to isolate from this - an uphill battle. I agree about how Britain was, though I am not convinced that there will be much of a reformation in social attitude. Socially, what needs to happen is that communities need to pull together - socialism on a local level. Then those communities need to link together. I felt that was lost in the UK. Will fear and insecurity lead to more communal thinking, or more even more self-first thinking? I tend to think (pessimistically!) that many will retreat even further, but hope it is the opposite. A older relative of mine is a true community leader (MBE to testify) in a very poor area. Her life has been a lifelong struggle to try to bring and keep a very poor community together. If there are a lot more like her, maybe it can work. We find more of a community feel even in the Eastern suburbs here, perhaps because the weather tends to keep people indoors much less.

Otherwise as for here - i agree. I was amazed and disgusted at the $1000 handouts. But then Westfield's profits are through the roof so all is well. But people did seem to spend it, which was the idea (I'd have saved it had I received it - not all families got it). Folk did as they were told. I'd have preferred the money spent on permanent infrastructure, rather than whatever tat people bought at Westfield. Affluenza is rife in Australia, just like Britain. Ironically, maybe in the short term this will stave off a severe recession. If everyone reacts like us (reducing spending severely and saving instead) then there would be massive job losses.

I find both countries infuriating in many ways, and a capitalistic mess. The main difference is that when I look out of the window here the sky is usually blue, strangers (even in Sydney) smile and say hello, and I can generally relax a lot more. That's all a bit superficial, but sometimes it'll do!

cricket1again

I think there are reall issues but I have an instinctive faith that the goodness in Britain will pervail. I think my attitude comes from my upbringing. I grew up in Northern England and we were shockingly poor. I mean really poverty stricken. Not rough or a bunch of losers, just really, really poor. I was one of 3 sisters and we took turns going to school so that we could all share the one pair of shoes we owned.
Seriously, I have never been worried by recessions. My coping skills are phenomenal! Today, I live very differently, I am successful and reasonably well off but I never take money or food for granted. I still have a very wholesome and basic attitude to life.
There is nothing like a lack of something to make people change and review their lives. Yes, social problems and crime are an issue but they always have been throughout history. You can't live in fear of a problem.
I've only ever experienced warmth, love and friendship in the UK. I have not experienced it here in Australia. I think life here is very superficial whereas life in the UK, once you scratch the surface, it has a heart of gold.

kporte

it seems to be a general opinion amongst "experts" that the uk will be hardest hit, but I agree if the government here continue to throw cash around they will be in deep doo when the recession proper bites here. $ 950 today, pay later