Novocastrian

I've just come from a very nice luncheon with friends. On the dessert menu was Eton Mess, so I told the waitress that I'd have the Boris Johnson: she knew exactly what I wanted.

The good news is that if he succeeds May in No.10, the next government will be a Labour majority.

Richard8655

Most interesting and sounds quite possible. It was closer than many thought.

I've read much of Labour's success came from younger voters who reject reduced social programs as well as some post-Brexit regret. Corbyn seems to have acquired a level of charisma impossible for May to duplicate. I don't see this energized wave ending anytime soon, but rather likely growing.

durham_lad

The program also discussed the figure of a 73% turnout of young people that was reported. Turns out that was a totally erroneous figure a single individual plucked out of the air. It will be another 6 months or more after proper polls of thousands of young voting age folks are conducted before any conclusions can be drawn.

BritInParis

Take your pick. My money is on David Davis.

For once, we are in agreement. At least, your first sentence. The DUP wants a Labour government led by Corbyn even less than the Tories. There was no need for May to go begging. Simply move ahead with the Queen's Speech as planned and dare them to vote it down.

There won't be another general election until after we leave the EU so your second prediction falls apart somewhat.

holly_1948

Not exactly charisma.
More that Jeremy Corbyn is proposing an adoption of socialism. Something that the Labour Party swore off in Spring 1995. Until now. Even recently people have described avowed socialists as "unelectable", only to be proven wrong. It is widely acknowledged that young people are more likely to be socialist than old people. More likely to accept the view that it is pointless to acquire power if the cost of doing so is that you must become everything that you despise.

Socialism was defined in 1917 simply as " ... the best obtainable system of popular administration and control of each industry or service". With the emphasis on "popular". I am pretty sure the founders of the Labour Party intended the adjective popular to apply to control as well as to administration but failed to make that unequivocally clear. It sheds light to reflect on the various antonyms to popular.

Novocastrian

He who promised the "fight of the summer" on the negotiation process and tripped up doing a U-turn while making his way from a stool in the corner to the middle of the ring?

Nope.

Richard8655

I think many voters do see a certain charisma in the rumpled and not particularly dashing appearance of Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders as a relief from the slickness of previous politicians. That, coupled with their outward social polices, is welcoming especially for younger voters (as you mentioned).

The trend of the increasing popularity of socialism among millennials and others is also occurring in the US with Bernie Sanders, as mentioned. I see this trend as continuing, but it'll take more time on this side of the Atlantic.

BritInParis

And given the negotiations started on Monday your tortured metaphor is based on what exactly?

Novocastrian

On DD's strong and stable stance that the rump EU's insistence on postponing free trade negotiations until sufficient progress has been made on the "divorce settlement" was totally unacceptable to him and then caving in on that in the first hour of talks.

Editha

And will David Davis's leadership campaign be like his last, and include women wandering round the conference hall, wearing tight t-shirts with the slogan 'It's DD for me'?

What a leader he'd make, eh?

BritInParis

Actually it was quite politically astute to give the EU a 'win' when it makes zero practical difference to the negotiations. This will be a marathon, not a sprint: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed".

Very important you bought up that. Let's compare records, shall we?

Bought up on a council estate in Tooting by a single mother, the Grammar school boy who, having failed to secured sufficient high A-level results to secure a university place, joined the SAS as a reservist in order to fund his resits, ended up with a BSc Joint Hons Molecular Science/Computer Science from Warwick, a Masters in Business from LBS and a stint at Harvard before embarking on a 17 year career with Tate & Lyle finishing as a senior executive before entering Parliament. A strong advocate for civil liberties, was Shadow Home Secretary for five years, Chair of the Public Accounts Committee for four and the Minister of State for Europe for three years before that. Resigned his seat on a point of principle over the erosion of civil liberties which he subsequently re-won in a landslide. He is now the UK's lead Brexit negotiator.

Contrast that with Mr Corbyn who, despite having had a comfortable middle class upbringing and prep school education, managed to flunk his A-levels and spent ten years as a trade union official, despite not actually having ever worked in any kind of trade, before becoming an MP for a leafy north London Labour safe seat and spending his entire Parliamentary career agitating for the hard left and shilling for terrorists. Never held a ministerial brief, shadow or otherwise and never chaired a parliamentary committee before becoming Labour leader. He did manage to find time to sign nearly 20,000 Early Day Motions however including one calling for the end of the human race by asteroid and thirteen more congratulating Arsenal Football Club on their footballing prowess.

Quite a tricky choice.

Novocastrian

It makes a world of difference to the negotiations and it wasn't astute, it was inevitable. The UK has little or no leverage in this whole affair.

It was followed very quickly by May announcing that she rejects the ECJ having a role in the protection of EU UK-resident citizens post Brexit. That hasn't gone down too well either.

Of course now she's back-tracked and suggests the International Court in den Haag should be the final arbiter, not the UK Supreme Court after all.

Let's wait and see how many more "course corrections" she can pull off before Monday when she's promised to put it all in writing.

BritInParis

Care to expand a little or shall I just accept that as a statement of fact?

As I mentioned in a previous post the ECJ has no more legitimacy to arbitrate on EU citizens' rights in the UK post-Brexit than the UK courts do on British citizens resident in the EU. If the EU seriously thinks that the ECJ should act as the sole arbitration body for any element of the UK's relationship with them after Brexit then we might as well walk away now as they're obviously not serious about doing any kind of deal. Please provide a link to where it was proposed that the UK Supreme Court should be the sole arbitrator? Difficult to 'back-track' on something that they never suggested.

Contrary to the assumptions made in The Guardian article I presume you are referring to the ICJ would not be the appropriate first port of call for any disputes. A permanent tribunal would need to be established as part of the Brexit deal, similarly to the EFTA Court or the new CETA Court being established between the EU and Canada to oversee its FTA.

Novocastrian

“The commitment we will make will be enshrined in UK law, and enforceable through our highly respected courts.” from May's dinner speech.

Compare and contrast the EU27's position (in writing no less!) https://ec.europa.eu/commission/site...ights_en_0.pdf

BritInParis

I think you misunderstood what is being said. Any deal on residual rights of EU citizens rights in the UK will have to be put into UK law and thus subject to enforcement through UK courts. That doesn't need to be said. The EU would need to do the same for the EU27 for British citizens resident in the EU. The difference is, based on their position paper, the EU wants the ECJ's jurisdiction to continue to apply to the EU27 and the UK even after we have left the EU.