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Ian_Daly Nov 25th 2013 10:46 am

Weekly Report 25/11 - Quiet week for GBP but is expected to remain supported
 
Sterling continues to threaten the highs of the year against the US Dollar, helped by the continuing strong run of UK data. This week sees the first revision of UK Q3 GDP, and while this is likely to be un-revised, many see risks to the upside.

While last week’s preliminary Euro zone PMIs were slightly disappointing, the IFO index and Belgian business confidence index both showed strong gains on Friday, and the comments from Draghi largely removed the talk of any further near term monetary policy action from the ECB. There is no dramatic good news from the Euro zone, but as long as there is no real evidence of a strong improvement in the US, slow and modest improvement in the Euro zone is likely to be enough to at least keep the Euro stable.

The regional US Fed indices for November have so far disappointed, and today’s Dallas Fed data will consequently probably garner a little more attention than usual in a holiday shortened week in which these regional indicates and US durable goods data are the only US numbers of note. At this stage, most economists still interpret Fed commentary as suggesting that a tapering remains pretty unlikely in December.


Key figures for the week ahead



Tomorrow 26/11/2013 – The only data to note for Tuesday will be the USD Consumer confidence for November. A positive reading of 72.4 is expected which is up from last months 71.2.

Wednesday 27/11/2013 – First thing in the morning we will see German Consumer Confidence which is expecting a slight improvement and then revised GDP figures for the UK which most economists are not expecting to see any difference from the last reading.

Later in the afternoon we will see US Durable Goods Orders for October which is expected to show a drastic drop from 3.7% to -1.9%.

Thursday 28/11/2013 – With no major data out for the UK or US the focus will firmly be on the Euro Zone and we will begin with German Unemployment Change and Rate. The actual Unemployment Rate is expected to come in at 6.9%, same as last month; however the actual Change is expected to show 2000 less Germans unemployed.

Friday 29/11/2013 – We end this jam packed week of data with GfK Consumer Confidence survey for November, a slight increase is expected. Later that morning we will have German Retails sales for October (Increase is expected) then UK mortgage approvals which is also due to see an increase. At 10:00am we will have the most significant data for the day which will be Euro zone CPI data. Later in the afternoon we will have Canadian GDP figures which are expected to show an increase.

If you have any up-coming trades in the next week or two then please insure to make your broker aware so they can guide you to the best time to trade. If you’re not a client already then please don’t hesitate to open an account, you will be under no obligation or contract to use us, it’s simply for convenience sake in case we see some major movements in the rates we can then act quickly and secure the rate if needs be.
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