Ian_Daly

Today sees “flash” PMI estimates for November euro area manufacturing and services. Last month saw a mixed performance with manufacturing rising, while services fell back. Most economists are expecting modest increases in both this month. The data is also likely to show activity in Germany continuing to rise more quickly than the euro area as a whole.

UK public finances are showing signs of underlying improvement in response to firmer economic activity. Today’s figures for October include Royal Mail privatisation proceeds. These week’s official classification shows these will boost the finances by £0.5bn, smaller than our original estimate. Accordingly we forecast PSNBX at £7.6bn this month. This will be the last official release before December’s Autumn Statement.

Today’s US data will provide a further indication of the strength of the economy in the wake of the government “shutdown”. Weekly initial claims have fallen over the past few weeks after a period when they were distorted by computer changes, but they are still modestly higher than a couple of months ago. We expect a further small fall this week. Meanwhile, the Philly Fed index will provide a further reading on manufacturing after the surprisingly weak Empire state survey.

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