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Currency News 16/1/2014 - Quiet Day on the economic calender, tomorrow is key focus.

Currency News 16/1/2014 - Quiet Day on the economic calender, tomorrow is key focus.

 
Old Jan 16th 2014, 9:32 am
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Default Currency News 16/1/2014 - Quiet Day on the economic calender, tomorrow is key focus.

UK News & Data releases

The Sterling / US Dollar Exchange rate eased lower on a firmer USD yesterday, and with nothing on the domestic calendar today, it looks likely to remain driven by USD sentiment. The $1.6320 area should provide decent initial support. The Sterling /Euro exchange rate should remain well supported today. UK retail sales data released tomorrow will be a focus, though some economists highlight risks are to the low side of market expectations, however, weaker the CPI print released earlier this week poses upside support to sales.

Euro Zone & Swiss Franc News & Data releases

The weaker than expected Germany 2013 GDP reading somewhat weighed on the EUR yesterday, however the move lower in EUR/USD was largely due to a USD recovery. The Euro /US Dollar exchange rate is now broadly in line after having deviated at the end of last year. Eurozone data out today looks unlikely to trigger much market reaction. Though some do see downside risks on a firmer USD tone.

US Dollar News and Data Releases

There were broad USD gains yesterday helped by the strong Empire Manufacturing survey. US data releases today are expected to support a continuation of this upward bias. While this isn't the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, US CPI released this afternoon, may attract some interest given the Fed's concerns over low inflation.

Headline CPI is expected to have risen to 1.5%, and core inflation to have stabilised at 1.7%, which should be supportive for USD. A firmer print today could be perceived by the market that the FOMC will be more comfortable with a continuation of further 'tapering' at the FOMC meeting this month and may prompt some USD gains. As well as this, the sharp upside surprise in the Empire survey yesterday raises expectation of a similar surprise in the Philadelphia Fed survey today. The latest weekly initial jobless claims print could attract some interest following last week's disappointing December payrolls report.

Scandinavian News and Data Releases

The Norwegian Krone (NOK) / Swedish Krona (SEK) has been little changed since the start of the year, in spite of the news being broadly SEK positive. Swedish inflation numbers for December came in firmer than expected, that somewhat eased market concerns about risks of further rate cuts from the Riksbank. Conversely, Norway CPI was on the weak side of expectations. However, SEK has failed to make much ground over NOK.

The NOK/SEK has been on a downtrend for the past few months however the pair appears to have found somewhat of a base. Most favor NOK/SEK to the upside and view the 2013 low of 1.0515 as decent support.

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