Modernian

........ property prices are either already falling, or are about to do so.

In the other thread about The Gardens someone mentioned gloomy comments by Better Homes - which I totally agree with.

There is a HUGE over-supply coming on to the market in the next 12-18 months, and developers are desperately trying to convince us all that they are all "pre-sold". Garbage.

All of this was predictable enough - but recently a new complication has arisen - SALIK. The increased traffic flow onto adjacent roads, to avoid the SZR toll gates, has caused severe slowdowns and tailbacks on residential roads such as Al Wasl. A (native) friend who lives in that area tells me it is sometimes hard even to get out of his driveway into the traffic flow during rush hour - who would want to buy a house there in those circumstances?

I also think there is a reluctance to even talk about this - in case rumour feeds reality?

The Dubai dream partly depends on the confidence that your 'investment' will continue to increase in value, whatever it might be. If that starts to wobble..........

Am I being alarmist?

If so, slap me down and I'll shut up - but I reckon the evidence is growing stronger day by day..........

Best wishes,

Mod.

jvr20

it's been done mate

English Girlie

I have a comment.................

Having been a member of another forum (Dubai), there are many, many, many well qualified, hungry people wishing to emigrate and work in Dubai.

I haven't heard a single good word about the dubai recruitment agencies.
They are slow, non responsive, never return calls etc.

Even when applying direct to the top companies, they don't even have the curtesy to reply..... need I go on!

There is alot of talent out there, but getting in Dubai is HARD!

Many people (from the other forum) simply gave up!

To fill those homes, you need people and many of those people will require work!

Sort out the recruitment situation, get active, dare I say pro-active!

And we will come, fill those homes and keep the prices up!

Not everyone has the balls/stupidity, to get on a plane and go for it... like what I am!

Cham128

well its what any country would do... the speculators are always talking about these problems... it's happening here in the uk at the moment... the rise in interest rates has just caused house prices to not grow as much as they have been... the problem is its a vicious circle... a rumour could easily spread like wildfire and cause the market to die... but it can work the other way around as well... and so they could be just fighting rumours with rumours...

the toll roads don't even get me started on... since they started the congestion charge in the uk... the zone has been nice... but the outskirts of the zone has been terrible...

the problem is you can't win with this... they enforce a charge to relieve congestion... you pay it they win... you don't pay it and go another way they win as they've relieved congestion in another area... then start charging for other roads...

but I totally agree with the recruitment agencies comment lol

W10

Modernian.

With that attitude you will not become a succesful Bukowski-man like myself. I suggest you take your healthy scepticism and turn it into a drug and drink fuelled journey into the gutter where you can mix with the whores and the junkies.

Failing that, I can always give you a reference for membership at one of my country clubs

Crash

Hi EG,

Things do move at a different pace in Dubai, I think that you just need to have a good attitude, and be confident in your self and your abilities. I'm not sure what to make of the recruitment agencies, but it does seem that a lot of the hiring is done through them, even though they seem to be phenomenally slow.

Border Reiver

I read in one of the papers (I think it was 7 Days, but I can't find the quote) that 800 people a day are "coming to live in Dubai". Now, that will include families of people who work here, maids and so on but even allowing for the number of people leaving it is a huge number, so there might be a little life left in the property market yet. As for Salik, it is certainly a pain but it does appear to have reduced traffic on SZR- we will find out for sure in September when the schools go back. The effect on property prices will be minimal as ex pats can't buy along Al Wasl Road anyway. What will have an effect on property desirability is the metro, when it is finished. I can see a positive impact on prices near to stations, like the Marina and Jumeriah Lake Towers.

Blue Cat

PMSL

Confucius

Money for nothing....Chicks for free...

Cham128

how much are the illuminous headbands though?

Confucius

40 bucks...Same as downtown...

Eeyore

That sounds like a lot, but even if *all* of them are wage-earners, 768 of those 800 will be earning 3000 dhs per month or less - hence they'll never be able to rent or buy property in Dubai.

The EFG Hermes report specifically addressed this issue, which is absolutely central to the future of the property market here and yet which many people are doing their very best to ignore. Everyone points to the numbers of people arriving, but nobody seems to want to acknowledge that the overwhelming majority of them are service industry workers and labourers.

According to Hermes, even allowing for annual increases in the number of people arriving in Dubai each year, it will take *ten years* before all the property that is currently under construction or nearing completion will be full (never mind all the property that's been announced but hasn't begun construction yet). That's how long it'll take for enough high-earners to get here.

shakh your bootie

Bukowski, eh? I've always preferred Hunter S Thompson myself

Not too many fat Samoans around these parts willing to play the stooge, tho...

When you reach the limit, there is a scary tendency to push things as far as you can

W10

I can be Charles, you can be Hunter.

Lets get down and dirty with the dregs of society...

Modernian

Oh W10 - please don't send me back to the gutter - I've only just left there............

And SALIK has another issue attached to it - a socio-economic one (I can't believe I just used that word........ that's a first).

The well paid can afford the toll far more than the poor can - any tax that hits the poorest hardest is A BAD THING.

When the poor can't even afford to drive to work, the slippery slope awaits...