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UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. etc

UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. etc

Old May 1st 2009, 9:32 am
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Default UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. etc

UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious ... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...s-serious.html

UK house prices have steepest drop since 1992 ... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ince-1992.html



US Housing Crash Continues ... http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

Analysis: Housing bubble burst sending economy down ... http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07003/750746-28.stm

Jobless rates rise in all US metro areas ... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jobles...ef=patrick.net

and a face of course ...
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Old May 1st 2009, 9:48 am
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

So who's Patrick? Some blogger?

No one has denied that housing markets elsewhere are not doing well. I fully expect prices to keep declining for a bit longer. But we're here in Dubai, right, and we're generally concerned about the Dubai housing market, right?

The for-sale market is dead. Flat out dead. As the other guy pointed out, Sherwood admitted they had zero sales since January. Unlike in the US or the UK where sales still happen (at lower prices, of course). I have friends who are seizing the opportunity to buy houses at prices 25% less than two years ago. But that's not as bad as the 50% price declines in Dubai.

Why the 50% price decline in Dubai? Maybe it has to do with a shrinking population? Maybe it has to do with investors realising the UAE isn't the safest place to invest their money into property. Maybe it has to do with that Dubai was possibly the ultimate real estate bubble in the entire world, the picture boy for the real estate boom of the 1990s-2008 and featured all the excessive irrationality of it.

Hey, I might leave my villa in Umm Suqeim for the Marina come this September when the lease is up. I just looked at a three bed + maids (four bedrooms if you want) flat in the Marina for 145,000 AED. I know last September they were asking 230, 240 for the same flat. I wonder how much it'll be worth come this September?

Dude, it's very well a possibility that by 2020 your places will be worth a fortune and you'll be laughing along to the bank. For most of us, however, our immediate concerns are rents for the next few years, and that's an entirely different story. I need to remind you that the Japanese and Taiwan housing prices, in economies far richer and more stable than Dubai, are lower than they were twenty years ago at the height of the Japanese real estate boom.

By the way, didn't you say in the other thread that you'd be willing not to rent out your place if you only got offers of 130,000 for it instead of 200,000? So you'd rather let it sit empty than bring in 130,000? Well, if there's enough of you then this real estate market in Dubai is seriously ****ed up.
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Old May 1st 2009, 11:05 am
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

Originally Posted by diablo View Post
UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious ... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...s-serious.html

UK house prices have steepest drop since 1992 ... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ince-1992.html



US Housing Crash Continues ... http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

Analysis: Housing bubble burst sending economy down ... http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07003/750746-28.stm

Jobless rates rise in all US metro areas ... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jobles...ef=patrick.net

and a face of course ...
My sister very recently sold her house in UK for 7% less than it's peak value in 2008.
Bet no one in Dubai would be able to do that.
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Old May 1st 2009, 11:36 am
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

Originally Posted by Jeeper View Post
My sister very recently sold her house in UK for 7% less than it's peak value in 2008.
Bet no one in Dubai would be able to do that.
definately not, can I recommend that if you are around you listen to the Property Show this Sunday afternoon between 12 and 2 on Dubai Eye 103.8. I good friend of my is a guest on the show, along with the Managing Partner of Betterhomes. Should make interesting listening.
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Old May 1st 2009, 12:07 pm
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

Originally Posted by Jeeper View Post
My sister very recently sold her house in UK for 7% less than it's peak value in 2008.
Bet no one in Dubai would be able to do that.
What was the increase to that 'peak' from the time she purchased it? 2%

I bet no-one in UK experienced 400% increase in 5 years and sold it? Not even your sister I guess.
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Old May 1st 2009, 12:18 pm
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

Originally Posted by Ethos83 View Post
So who's Patrick? Some blogger?
Who's Ethos83

I just wanted to see what comes up with a single click on 'UK housing' or 'US housing'. The difference being - if it's about Dubai everyone puts a few bricks to make it sink faster.
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Old May 1st 2009, 12:25 pm
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

Originally Posted by diablo View Post
What was the increase to that 'peak' from the time she purchased it? 2%

I bet no-one in UK experienced 400% increase in 5 years and sold it? Not even your sister I guess.
true.

Personally i'd rather invest for smaller gains without risk of losing my shirt than gamble for 400% gains.

My ex told me i was a loser / pathetic for not investing in an apartment here preferring instead to keep cash in the bank at 2-3% interest.

Of course she didn't care - it wasn't her money to risk.
This was late 2007 and we were looking at 2.1mill for a 1 bed in old town

That 2-3% in the bank has netted me a 30% -40% gain on savings over little more than a year in exchange rate - savings are now repatriated - and also effectively saved me countelss thousands in lost value in an old town apartment.

There's extra risk in that if I lost my job I couldn't finance said apartment - a nz salary wouldn't cover it! I that case I would have lost EVERYTHING and been horrendously in debt. WHy would i put up with 5 years in this place to have nothing.

I had no intention of commiting myself to this place until 2020...nor any guarantee I would be able to.

So yeah - you might have invested in 2002 and made 400% (which you appear not to have realised by selling then).....and if you had - good luck to you.


My way - in 5 years in dubai I have managed to save for a decent house in NZ (where I plan to return) and have no mortgage. For most it takes 20 years of mortgage payments and effectively paying double after interest to do that.

It might be the slow way - but I ain't lost any sleep in the credit crisis.



The ones that sat in 2008 and said 'i told you so' when they sold their apartment at 400% on 2002 are no different to a gambler who sits there and puts it all on black and when it comes in say 'i told you so'.

Dubai property and gambling - in both the gains were possible and obvious - but so were the losess.

I ain't into that.

One bird in that hand and all that.


and to answer your point....yeah - my sis hasn't made 400%....but she ain't lost more than 100% of her downpayment (which for most is life savings) like many here.

Last edited by Jeeper; May 1st 2009 at 12:42 pm.
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Old May 1st 2009, 12:32 pm
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

Originally Posted by diablo View Post
What was the increase to that 'peak' from the time she purchased it? 2%

I bet no-one in UK experienced 400% increase in 5 years and sold it? Not even your sister I guess.
sell your investments at a 400% profit and I will take YOU for dinner, within the month though. A 3 bed off plan on the Springs was about 750-800k if I remember rightly, they peaked at what 3.4 mil? they are selling now for 1.4 mil, 100% profit, good yes but it is bound to happen in a new market.
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Old May 1st 2009, 12:43 pm
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

mortgage approvals have gone up in the uk so who knows? might be the start of the long awaited upward movement
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Old May 1st 2009, 12:44 pm
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

Originally Posted by Jeeper View Post
and to answer your point....yeah - my sis hasn't made 400%....but she ain't lost more than 100% of her downpayment (which for most is life savings) like many here.
Well, I bought an apartment in St George's Terrace, Perth, Western Australia back in 2006 for 490k (3 years ago!!!). I cannot find a bank to finance it for that money - it's value is less than I bought it. That's how bad it is there. I deposited 10k but I paid 15K Stamp F***** Duty.
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Old May 1st 2009, 12:52 pm
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

Originally Posted by diablo View Post
Well, I bought an apartment in St George's Terrace, Perth, Western Australia back in 2006 for 490k (3 years ago!!!). I cannot find a bank to finance it for that money - it's value is less than I bought it. That's how bad it is there. I deposited 10k but I paid 15K Stamp F***** Duty.
yeah -agreed it's bad the world over - but i bet it's value ain't halved.

Anyway - jumping on the bandwagon with rising prices in any investments always ends up with many getting burnt.
The patient ones lurk around and buy up the cheap stuff later - if they weren't in earlier. (late = early for the next wave)
Be it - shares (cheap right now), houses (cheap right now - still wouldn't buy jsut yet and would never in dubai), commodities or whatever you fancy.

Last edited by Jeeper; May 1st 2009 at 12:56 pm.
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Old May 1st 2009, 5:54 pm
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

Originally Posted by diablo View Post
Well, I bought an apartment in St George's Terrace, Perth, Western Australia back in 2006 for 490k (3 years ago!!!). I cannot find a bank to finance it for that money - it's value is less than I bought it. That's how bad it is there. I deposited 10k but I paid 15K Stamp F***** Duty.
sorry to hear mate. and absolutely nothing personal, but I hope it gets worse. It's the only way in 4 years time when we have to come over cos of our PRs that we will be able to get our footsies onto the Perth housing market.
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Old May 2nd 2009, 7:55 am
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

diablo, so lets get this clear...

If it wasn't for the credit crisis, you would still be confident that the Dubai property market would be continuing double digit annual gains?

PSSST!, would you like to buy some magic beans?
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Old May 2nd 2009, 8:45 am
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

My house in the US might have been devalued by 10% MIGHT.

The problem is finding a buyer. Time on the market is up and prices are down but c'mon.
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Old May 2nd 2009, 8:47 am
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Default Re: UK housing bubble is bursting and it's serious, US Housing Crash Continues etc. e

Also worth noting:

This thread has NOTHING, NOTHING to do with the MIDDLE EAST!!!!!!
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