Paidtoplease

Do we think it will happen ???

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index...unday&Itemid=1

shakh your bootie

It's almost inevitable - the questions really are when and by how much? 3 to 5% seems conservative; I've read 20% elesewhere...

shakh your bootie

Another indicator that they might move this w/end is the fact that they started selling DH certificates for the first time today...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7107401

Hope they know what they are doing - otherwise Mr Soros might make history again...

Paidtoplease

Hmmm sometimes the ''do they know what they are doing'' is debatable

Meow

One school of thought is that there will be a 3-5% revaluation on Sunday, when the banks are shut for National Day.

The Dean

GCC Summit is Mon and Tues (3 and 4 Dec) in Doha - I'd be AMAZED if they pre-empt that.

The trouble with a 'peg' is that, when the other economy/currency is toilet, the pegged one gets dragged down with it. The US are cutting rates, as they are trying to stave off recession - opposite problem to this region.

If you have a pegged rate, interest rates have to be very similar in both economies (to prevent speculators borrowing the one with the lower rate, converting to the other one, then investing that at a guaranteed risk-free profit). Inflation is already a major issue in the GCC, so cutting rates not easy..........

Still too close to call, especially the timing..........

Dago

They'll peg to a basket of currencies with about half as USD and se what happens. OPEC / Middle east really don't want to mess with the currencies which a full scale reval would do.

shakh your bootie

There was a run on the Dirham yesterday....

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/50528...luation-report

Norm_uk

I think they'd be mad to consider it really - what happens when the dollar recovers and other currencies go down the sink.

These things tend to move in cycles...this is just a very bad cycle...short term thinking won't help.

N.

IndieG

I don't think they will remove the peg (especially Saudi and Abu Dhabi). Even revaluation - I doubt it would be anything substantial - (the figures 15-20% we now see in the media is just wishful thinking and I so want to believe it too), considering that Abu Dhabi's main revenues are dollar denominated and the majority of their assets are held in dollars too........

jvr20

wasn't decision-day supposed to be today?

certainly al-Ansari were only buying USD for 3.2 yesterday in anticipation...

IndieG

Any idea how much were they selling the $$$$ for? I sold @ 3.6725 yesterday (staff rate, but still not that far from the rate for customers))

jvr20

not offhand but it looked unchanged from the pre-speculation rate, so 3.66-67 ish...

But if you sold at 3.6725 vs a customer rate of 3.200 then you got a great deal, no?

IndieG

Geez, the spread is criminal!

Not sure if I got a great deal - obviously the bank does not think that a revaluation is imminent then?

jvr20

according to GN today that was true of banks in general, vs. exchanges:

http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Ban.../10172028.html