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The Price of Oil and Dubai.

The Price of Oil and Dubai.

Old Dec 29th 2014, 12:02 am
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Default The Price of Oil and Dubai.

It has been said on a couple of other expat forums, that there is a good chance of another crash, in the Middle East.
The expats in Dubai will pack up and leave by the bus load.
Just like the last time a few years ago.

The Airlines. Emptyhad and Emirates, and Air Arabia.
The knock on effect

Now this new and lower oil prices!!
On just how long can they keep these prices so low,
Saudi are staying maybe 6 months, just to hurt Russia.

Interesting times ahead in 2015 if these oil prices stay this low.
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Old Dec 29th 2014, 7:15 am
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Default Re: The Price of Oil and Dubai.

Absolute rubbish. I must have missed the last Middle East crash. When was that exactly? If you mean the global recession, that affected here no worse than anywhere else.
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Old Dec 29th 2014, 11:04 pm
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Default Re: The Price of Oil and Dubai.

Ok sorry maybe my choice of wording wasn't good.
But it has been said on an aviation middle eastern web site.

Enclaves such as Dubai, which has built its economy on servicing the flood of expatriates working in the region has started to feel the impact of Saudi Arabia’s decision to provoke an oil price war. The Dubai Financial Market – seen as a barometer for risk in the region crashed by over 7pc earlier this month amid wider concern over the impact that lower oil prices will have on the region’s most diversified local economy.
Although, the Dubai stock market has since recovered, experts are warning that the decade-long boom that expatriates have enjoyed in the region could soon be over unless oil prices rebound to levels above $80 per barrel in the near future.
“Expats seem largely unconcerned and most think it means nothing to them,” said Peter Cooper, founder of Arabian Money and a 20-year veteran of the Gulf. “Only when it does will they notice. The oil sector is different and the switching off of new developments is instant although Saudi Arabia has made no cuts so far. Business will disappoint next year and by the summer departures will be up. But 2014 was quite a boom year.”
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Old Dec 30th 2014, 1:52 am
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Default Re: The Price of Oil and Dubai.

Originally Posted by coffindodger View Post
Ok sorry maybe my choice of wording wasn't good.
But it has been said on an aviation middle eastern web site.

Enclaves such as Dubai, which has built its economy on servicing the flood of expatriates working in the region has started to feel the impact of Saudi Arabia’s decision to provoke an oil price war. The Dubai Financial Market – seen as a barometer for risk in the region crashed by over 7pc earlier this month amid wider concern over the impact that lower oil prices will have on the region’s most diversified local economy.
Although, the Dubai stock market has since recovered, experts are warning that the decade-long boom that expatriates have enjoyed in the region could soon be over unless oil prices rebound to levels above $80 per barrel in the near future.
“Expats seem largely unconcerned and most think it means nothing to them,” said Peter Cooper, founder of Arabian Money and a 20-year veteran of the Gulf. “Only when it does will they notice. The oil sector is different and the switching off of new developments is instant although Saudi Arabia has made no cuts so far. Business will disappoint next year and by the summer departures will be up. But 2014 was quite a boom year.”
Dubai is chock full of people in complete denial that they are part of the same world as everyone else! Memory cycles seem to be shorter than other countries, and then of course there is the common excuse that 'the fundamentals are totally different and there is widespread regulation now'.

The facts are that the global economy has been anything but healthy (exceptions obviously exist) for quite some time, in fact I've read articles arguing it never actually recovered from the last crisis and in my opinion a lot of the argumentation is sound.

The oil price game certainly isn't making the outlook more rosy and this came on top of the Ukraine situation which already meant Russia was getting their balls felt by the EU in particular. (It has been called a potential WW3 scenario..yikes!)

Dubai is not immune to any of this!

I heard a ridiculous justification (can't remember where) that the Indians and British will pick up the slack where Russians left off in the property market. Not without a substantial adjustments in prices they won't, and besides the property market was in for a torrid time regardless.

All these new properties being developed and sold to investors with spare cash - who will buy or rent them when they are completed? It's a bloody good question..

Anyway. I hope we are not in for a crash. It's not good for anyone. An adjustment to a realistic level would be a good thing though..
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