Pound - AED exchange rates?
#1
BE Enthusiast
Thread Starter
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 547
Pound - AED exchange rates?
OK, I know that trying to predict future currency rates is a fools game... but, maybe someone with slightly more knowledge might have some useful thoughts and be less foolish on this subject than I am.
A month or 2 ago, and for some time prior to that, the GBP/AED rates were about 5.6 up to 5.9 for most of the time. Since then they have been up over 6.1.
For someone (ie me!) who has allowed a surplus of AED to build up, and was on the point of moving them all back to the UK a couple of months ago but missed the moment, what would you do:
- cut your losses and transfer them now, even though the rates are so bad?
- wait?
I'd be interested for the reasoning behind either option. I don't have any need for the money here, or back in the UK, but it is earning next to nothing here while I wait for the moment to move it, and it might at least earn something back in the UK.
PS - I am not looking for advice about the best way to move the money, who has the best rates etc - just why the rates have gone this way and whether they are more likely to stay, get worse or improve.
A month or 2 ago, and for some time prior to that, the GBP/AED rates were about 5.6 up to 5.9 for most of the time. Since then they have been up over 6.1.
For someone (ie me!) who has allowed a surplus of AED to build up, and was on the point of moving them all back to the UK a couple of months ago but missed the moment, what would you do:
- cut your losses and transfer them now, even though the rates are so bad?
- wait?
I'd be interested for the reasoning behind either option. I don't have any need for the money here, or back in the UK, but it is earning next to nothing here while I wait for the moment to move it, and it might at least earn something back in the UK.
PS - I am not looking for advice about the best way to move the money, who has the best rates etc - just why the rates have gone this way and whether they are more likely to stay, get worse or improve.
#2
Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?
Using OANDA (http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/), you can work out average historical rates. A rational thing to do would be to buy pounds when the price drops below the historical average from since you moved here, and don't buy pounds when it is above that historical rate. For instance, the average from 2010 when I moved here to today has been 5.93 dhs/pound. When I've needed to, I've bought pounds when they were cheaper than 5.9.
Personally, I just keep savings in USD as I don't need UKP (and there's no reason to believe that my next move will be back to the UK). If and when I do need UKP, I'll start monitoring the USD-UKP exchange rate and apply the approach above.
Personally, I just keep savings in USD as I don't need UKP (and there's no reason to believe that my next move will be back to the UK). If and when I do need UKP, I'll start monitoring the USD-UKP exchange rate and apply the approach above.
#3
BE Enthusiast
Thread Starter
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 547
Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?
Thanks, but that doesn't really answer my question!! I know what the historical rates have been, and I know that historically now is a bad time to buy pounds. But I have no idea why the rates are so bad now, nor whether whatever reason which has led them to be bad will keep them that way for a long time. If "experts" now expect them to stay at this level for the months or even years, then I might as well move the money back now and start trying to earn some money with them - or consider dollar investments, I suppose... But it'd be irritating and expensive to move it all back now only for them to drop down to their historical average next week.
#4
Account Closed
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 0
Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?
OK, I know that trying to predict future currency rates is a fools game... but, maybe someone with slightly more knowledge might have some useful thoughts and be less foolish on this subject than I am.
A month or 2 ago, and for some time prior to that, the GBP/AED rates were about 5.6 up to 5.9 for most of the time. Since then they have been up over 6.1.
For someone (ie me!) who has allowed a surplus of AED to build up, and was on the point of moving them all back to the UK a couple of months ago but missed the moment, what would you do:
- cut your losses and transfer them now, even though the rates are so bad?
- wait?
I'd be interested for the reasoning behind either option. I don't have any need for the money here, or back in the UK, but it is earning next to nothing here while I wait for the moment to move it, and it might at least earn something back in the UK.
PS - I am not looking for advice about the best way to move the money, who has the best rates etc - just why the rates have gone this way and whether they are more likely to stay, get worse or improve.
A month or 2 ago, and for some time prior to that, the GBP/AED rates were about 5.6 up to 5.9 for most of the time. Since then they have been up over 6.1.
For someone (ie me!) who has allowed a surplus of AED to build up, and was on the point of moving them all back to the UK a couple of months ago but missed the moment, what would you do:
- cut your losses and transfer them now, even though the rates are so bad?
- wait?
I'd be interested for the reasoning behind either option. I don't have any need for the money here, or back in the UK, but it is earning next to nothing here while I wait for the moment to move it, and it might at least earn something back in the UK.
PS - I am not looking for advice about the best way to move the money, who has the best rates etc - just why the rates have gone this way and whether they are more likely to stay, get worse or improve.
#5
Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?
Thanks, but that doesn't really answer my question!! I know what the historical rates have been, and I know that historically now is a bad time to buy pounds. But I have no idea why the rates are so bad now, nor whether whatever reason which has led them to be bad will keep them that way for a long time. If "experts" now expect them to stay at this level for the months or even years, then I might as well move the money back now and start trying to earn some money with them - or consider dollar investments, I suppose... But it'd be irritating and expensive to move it all back now only for them to drop down to their historical average next week.
#6
womble
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 2,675
Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?
move it slowly month by month. don't push it across in one go. move 10% of the original lump sum across at the beginning of each month. that way you smooth the lows and highs across the year.
#7
Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?
invest it all in beer, bacon, cars and prostitutes. waste the rest sending it home. live that lifestyle and you won't care about a 2% currency movement.
#8
Forum Regular
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 33
Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?
Just out of interest, who do you use to transfer money back to the UK?
#10
Hit 16's
Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Of all the gin joints, in all the towns, in all the world, she walks into mine
Posts: 13,112
#13
Onwards and Upwards!
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 884
Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?
OP, logically, the correct answer is to keep half and transfer half.
#15
Hit 16's
Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Of all the gin joints, in all the towns, in all the world, she walks into mine
Posts: 13,112