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Pound - AED exchange rates?

Pound - AED exchange rates?

Old Mar 11th 2014, 6:05 am
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Default Pound - AED exchange rates?

OK, I know that trying to predict future currency rates is a fools game... but, maybe someone with slightly more knowledge might have some useful thoughts and be less foolish on this subject than I am.

A month or 2 ago, and for some time prior to that, the GBP/AED rates were about 5.6 up to 5.9 for most of the time. Since then they have been up over 6.1.

For someone (ie me!) who has allowed a surplus of AED to build up, and was on the point of moving them all back to the UK a couple of months ago but missed the moment, what would you do:
- cut your losses and transfer them now, even though the rates are so bad?
- wait?

I'd be interested for the reasoning behind either option. I don't have any need for the money here, or back in the UK, but it is earning next to nothing here while I wait for the moment to move it, and it might at least earn something back in the UK.

PS - I am not looking for advice about the best way to move the money, who has the best rates etc - just why the rates have gone this way and whether they are more likely to stay, get worse or improve.
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 7:42 am
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

Using OANDA (http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/), you can work out average historical rates. A rational thing to do would be to buy pounds when the price drops below the historical average from since you moved here, and don't buy pounds when it is above that historical rate. For instance, the average from 2010 when I moved here to today has been 5.93 dhs/pound. When I've needed to, I've bought pounds when they were cheaper than 5.9.

Personally, I just keep savings in USD as I don't need UKP (and there's no reason to believe that my next move will be back to the UK). If and when I do need UKP, I'll start monitoring the USD-UKP exchange rate and apply the approach above.
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 7:53 am
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

Thanks, but that doesn't really answer my question!! I know what the historical rates have been, and I know that historically now is a bad time to buy pounds. But I have no idea why the rates are so bad now, nor whether whatever reason which has led them to be bad will keep them that way for a long time. If "experts" now expect them to stay at this level for the months or even years, then I might as well move the money back now and start trying to earn some money with them - or consider dollar investments, I suppose... But it'd be irritating and expensive to move it all back now only for them to drop down to their historical average next week.
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 7:55 am
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

Originally Posted by archie159 View Post
OK, I know that trying to predict future currency rates is a fools game... but, maybe someone with slightly more knowledge might have some useful thoughts and be less foolish on this subject than I am.

A month or 2 ago, and for some time prior to that, the GBP/AED rates were about 5.6 up to 5.9 for most of the time. Since then they have been up over 6.1.

For someone (ie me!) who has allowed a surplus of AED to build up, and was on the point of moving them all back to the UK a couple of months ago but missed the moment, what would you do:
- cut your losses and transfer them now, even though the rates are so bad?
- wait?

I'd be interested for the reasoning behind either option. I don't have any need for the money here, or back in the UK, but it is earning next to nothing here while I wait for the moment to move it, and it might at least earn something back in the UK.

PS - I am not looking for advice about the best way to move the money, who has the best rates etc - just why the rates have gone this way and whether they are more likely to stay, get worse or improve.
I'd wait.
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 8:07 am
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

Originally Posted by archie159 View Post
Thanks, but that doesn't really answer my question!! I know what the historical rates have been, and I know that historically now is a bad time to buy pounds. But I have no idea why the rates are so bad now, nor whether whatever reason which has led them to be bad will keep them that way for a long time. If "experts" now expect them to stay at this level for the months or even years, then I might as well move the money back now and start trying to earn some money with them - or consider dollar investments, I suppose... But it'd be irritating and expensive to move it all back now only for them to drop down to their historical average next week.
If I could predict currency market movements, I would not be working in my current profession. I just use an approach to conversion timing that means on average, I should beat the historical average, assuming no UK-specific catastrophe that I couldn't predict in the first place anyway and which I wouldn't beat myself up about if it happened.
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 12:30 pm
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

move it slowly month by month. don't push it across in one go. move 10% of the original lump sum across at the beginning of each month. that way you smooth the lows and highs across the year.
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 12:39 pm
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

invest it all in beer, bacon, cars and prostitutes. waste the rest sending it home. live that lifestyle and you won't care about a 2% currency movement.
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 12:56 pm
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

Just out of interest, who do you use to transfer money back to the UK?
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 1:13 pm
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

Originally Posted by scotia 7 View Post
Just out of interest, who do you use to transfer money back to the UK?
I have the prostitutes smuggle it back in packets of bacon tucked inside the glove compartments of the sports cars.
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 2:08 pm
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
I have the prostitutes smuggle it back in packets of bacon tucked inside the glove compartments of the sports cars.
A-. You missed out beer.
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 2:54 pm
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

Originally Posted by scotia 7 View Post
Just out of interest, who do you use to transfer money back to the UK?
Moneycorp, but there are others.
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 4:19 pm
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

HSBC Premier
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 5:05 pm
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

OP, logically, the correct answer is to keep half and transfer half.

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Old Mar 11th 2014, 5:31 pm
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

Originally Posted by Bahtatboy View Post
A-. You missed out beer.
I don't drink and drive.
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Old Mar 11th 2014, 5:36 pm
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Default Re: Pound - AED exchange rates?

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
I don't drink and drive.
Touché. You're on form today
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