Post lockdown
 

Seems the entire world is heading for lockdown, assuming the WHO have the balls to finally release lockdown in around 3-6 months, what are your hopes or expectations for a post-lockdown world?

For me:
1. I think the return of all knowledge workers back to the office will be slim: working from home will be seen as perfectly ok and acceptable.
2. Social distancing will become the norm in our cultures, everyone taking a little more precaution around those that look sick. Don't come to work if sick will be a much greater thing.
3. I dream of a world with a bit more empathy, the lockdowns will level everyone - hopefully, people remember it, but I doubt it given the stockpiling of shitroll
4. Austerity will be here again for a long time to pay for these unlimited bailouts.
5. Interest rates will be permanently low. I believed this before COVID but it's been reconfirmed in my mind. Those with assets will win.
6. There will be massive investment in food and drug security. No way can countries rely on the exports of just a few countries for medicines.
7. Those in the supply chain will benefit hugely - there will a much greater emphasis on supply chain management
8. Farmers and landholders will benefit, again driven by security concerns. A shift from city to rural living. City real-estate will be long-term negative.
9. The poor will get poorer, the rich will get richer and more concentrated - but that was going to happen anyway.
10. We will never travel the same way again.

Re: Post lockdown
 

I think the lockdowns will be much sooner over than we think. China's opening up after 7 weeks so I think we'll see something similar, where we start to be out and about a bit more, as a reverse - small bits open, then a bit more, then a bit more. But that's technically pie in the sky guessing based on one location so we're kinda guessing at nothing. But anyway.

Good list. Agree with a lot of that, think that 1 and 2 are really important. I hate 'presenteeism' at work and people being poorly martyrs.
3. Preach. Great point.
I think 7 is a good point but it'll be down to who survives, they'll win double because they'll be the select few who managed to make it so will clean up until more competition arrives.
8. What does 'long term negative' mean please? I think this is a good point. Lots of industries are really remote already - Mother has worked for companies around the country and as far north as Manchester, but would be in the office a couple of days every couple of weeks, perfect plausible.
10. What do you mean?

I think the way we work won't change much initially because people will want to be back in offices / on location, but it will make companies think about the need for people to be on site. Cut the office in half and have a rotation of people coming in on different days, so people mix up with different groups, different days and employees actually incur the majority of the cost of their working location. Smart.

The increase in great apps is already apparent - House Party is ****ing brilliant and so easy to use.
The increase in remote working tools - Microsoft Teams could easily end Webex and Skype for Bidniz. The latter two are a bit wank anyway and Teams is a great all-in-one tool....so far.
People may take note of the change in the planet - the lower emissions / levels of smog, the Venice canals story (if true). It may make people realise just how quickly change could come in terms of improving the environmental impact of humans.
Could make even more nationalism. Could damage the EU freedom of movement stuff, which would just send the continent back 50 years, sadly.
Might see an increase in online services like Doctors etc. Might even see kids do more genuinely independent learning and remote learning - it's something that's a phenomenal life lesson for the kids of today. Schools won't disappear though, well shouldn't, the interaction and relationships part is obviously a huge benefit.
Nationalisation of some big pharma related industries or businesses? Or bigger government influence in it? I'm not really that clued up with the industry but more government control would appeal to voters if it becomes an issue.

Loads of things, from the sublime and sensible to the utterly ridiculous I suppose, but it's fun to think of some positives.

Re: Post lockdown
 

long-term negative... I mean the peak has passed and over time we will realise that city real estate is overvalued, could be for a variety of reasons; people working at home not needing offices, car parks no longer needed due to automation, health concerns etc.

Re: Post lockdown
 

Good post. I don't think there will be a sudden lifting of the lockdown, rather a gradual lifting over a period of years with some restrictions lasting for the long-haul. Some more legacy items:
- Reduction in shared touch - More automatic doors; touch free systems replacing lift buttons etc;
- Increase in contactless payments with a big drop in the use of coins and notes.
- Increase in use of identity cards to check the status of vaccinations before access/travel is granted.
- Increased reluctance to touch others. Will handshakes go out of favour for some?
- Big increase in e-commerce in the middle east impacting mall traffic.
- New priorities for politics.

Re: Post lockdown
 

All of your points make sense but not sure whether wholesale changes will occur to city office space. We might see far more use of co-working spaces the company I work for have people in and out all the time and don't have an issue with people working from home if they need to.Or people will just be given passes to those co-working clubs by their employer and have a weekly/bi-weekly team meting in person to agree big things, strategy, etc.Probably even more focus on wellness particularly the mental side of things by employers.

I don't know whether austerity will be here for the long-term but I suspect for many this will encourage them to shift careers.As a society,we will need all the mental health services we can get in the future, both NHS and private so you might see people re-training and going into different industries. I foresee a greater integration between the private and public sectors when it comes to healthcare, in terms of ensuring capacity for future crises.

I hope there will be more empathy - listening to people in the last few days, there is a real appreciation of things that we all take for granted.

I agree with food/drug security being important and that might play a huge part in the re-emergence of the UK industry.We'll probably increase our food security as well.

Our daily habits will change as will the means with which pursue them (no-touch taps in homes, maybe higher use of bidets, bum-guns).I also think we will all start keeping some ''rainy day'' supplies, such as more extensive medicine cabinets, long-lasting foods, etc.

More shopping will be done online - I think recent surges of hiring by supermarkets/Amazon are a sign of things to come.

I wonder where this all leaves Brexit. And I think we will have the mother of all public inquiries on the handling of this crisis.

Hopefully this lock down will give the planet a chance to catch its breath and maybe even stop an odd war here and there.

I tend to be apolitical but I suspect that Boris won't be PM this time next year.

Or maybe it'll all just go back to how it was?

Re: Post lockdown
 

3-6 months? I recon 3 years could be more like it.......

Main long term effect I see is that most airlines will have gone under and international travel will be a thing of the past.

Re: Post lockdown
 

Agree on the travel. The days of just booking a flight and going are gone. Expect health certificates and border health controls to become the norm.

Re: Post lockdown
 

Many companies already have flexible work from home policies for consultants and other staff but this could be the catalyst seeing many more people having teleworking flexibility. And firms will like the cost savings from reducing the footprint of leased spaces. This could hit commercial properties hard, especially in prime locations. Why maintain all that London space when you can just have a small office for meetings and business development with clients and have most of your staff working all over UK.

Also agree with Millhouse on the shift to villages and rural areas. We already saw this happening over the past decade but it will intensify. There's a trauma element to this lockdown that will not be easily forgotten.

The world will aggressively move away from China for supply chain reasons. See sweeping edicts dictating all or a high % of medicinal equipment and drugs must be manufactured in a selected handful of trusted trade partners or even entirely in the UK. US will probably take the lead in this. The developing world will use this pandemic as an excuse to break away from the parasitical mercantalist Chinese trade-diplomacy.

Will be interesting to see how it affects travel. Can see restrictions, must have certified health certificates within a few days of departure before allowed to travel, and temperature readings upon arrival.

Re: Post lockdown
 

I'm curious that you say this, given that in the covid thread you've said that working from home is barely productive.

Re: Post lockdown
 

it’s unproductive for many (eg my wife in sales) but our back office of introverts have been praying for this event for years.

for me, I have to meet people but I could do this on a 3 day a week basis in the office, the rest virtual.

There is a tonne of professions that could be done remotely- engineering design, tech, finance back office etc. I’d argue that scamp could even run his business from home with the same level of efficiency.

Re: Post lockdown
 

I dream of being home based for about half the week. Much more comfortable, relaxed and people don't eyeball you for doing half the hours and being just as productive as the average idiot.

Re: Post lockdown
 

Working from home is all well and good. However, once remote working is established, it won't take long before some bright spark Accountant starts asking why Peter working from home in Plymouth can't be replaced with Prakash working from home in Pune, saving three quarters of the cost. The big UK Engineering Consultancies, now mostly American owned, all operate offshore design houses: Poland, India, Philippines, churning out drawings, schedules and the like. It's a slippery slope...

Re: Post lockdown
 

Everything except 3 - for anyone with a stable home and income, and at least half a brain, holding a stash of TP, toiletries, and at least a couple of months supply of canned and dried foods is going to become the norm.

Re: Post lockdown
 

The design side being outsourced offshore has been running for at least 10-15 years without an negative impact on home based engineering jobs.

Re: Post lockdown
 

End of the expat Gulf days? Oil prices in the crapper and probably that way for a long time.