The Dean

Is this significant?

(Apologies in advance if this has already been covered, and I missed it)

http://www.ameinfo.com/167850.html

Chesney Hawkes

I haven't really looked into this but what I think it this:

At the moment you only register your property with the lands department upon 'completion', therefore the government does not know you have bought a property until it's actually complete.

The new law means that the property has to be registered with the lands department as soon as the purchase is made. If it is not it is legally invalid.

I'm not sure if this new law means that if the property is not registered and the developer does not go ahead with the development then you get your money back because they have broken the law by not registering the property.

Seems to be that this is a positive thing for the purchaser.

All of the above could be completely wrong but thought i'd hazard a guess

IndieG

I don't know whether it has anything to do with the new laws, but, the property sector is definitely showing signs of stress - especially u/c properties. I know many people that are trying to flog their properties and are unable to get out - they're finding no buyers.

The Dean

I don't think that's recent though Indie - I personally know of THREE people (so there must be loads more I DON'T know) that have been trying to sell their JBR places for ages - no chance..........

IndieG

Yeah, what I heard in the past was always anecdotal ( friend's friend and all that). But now, I've got friends that are really stressed out.

Interest rates are artificially low and they're definitely going to go really high soon - liquidity is so tight that banks are desperate to hang on to deposits and are now willing to pay 200 bps over EBOR for a 1 mth corp deposit. I had one bank quoting me 4% for a 3 mth deposit!

Foxes

things are definitely coming to a head in dubai - just check out the property section of gulf news - similar in depth to the UK Yellow pages !
Loads of sellers but no one is buying....and this is with a vast %age of property still being held back off the market.

i'll stick my neck out and expect to see rents falling between 10/15% in the coming year and prices to fall even more...

AlmostPregnant

Not necessarily. It could happen that small investors (people who purchased ONE flat or villa) will find themselves in a tough spot and be forced to sell for cheap what they bought for dear, and there are other "investors" who purchased way more with different kind of equities and assets (both in magnitude and structuring) who will have no problem at all to buy and add to their collection, no problem _at all_. Then the property will still be on the market (nobody inside) and the new owner could keep its value artificially high for a much longer amount of time. Again, these people are _not_ under stress to pay a mortgage installment. I'm afraid it will happen again and again.

Foxes

prices may remain high Dubai, but you only get value when demand meets supply !!!
Can't see may high net worth investors buying into Dubai now which is still developing regulations, corruption scandals rife, and thus affecting the potential demand element...those who got in 2/3 years ago will still do well even if prices fall 20/30% from the current prices but a lot of those type of risk investors have already moved to other parts of the UAE notably AD...

IndieG

Analysts are still bleating on about "market consolidation", market is strong and expect a downturn only in 2010.......blah...blah..... Yeah right - - forgot, market here can never go down, 'larger' investors will hang on ....; which is why Emaar touched a low of 7.55 today.

AlmostPregnant

IG, what I'm saying is that the market WILL collapse, but only in that 20-30% of micro-investors who cannot afford to refinance, etc. THEN the sharks will be buying these properties off for a very good price (for them). Still, this people already own 70-80% of the market, which means that they CAN effectively pilot the market. And RE is a well-known case of "singularity" in behavioral economics, meaning: most of the people still DO NOT sell when it is time for it, they prefer to bear the losses. Therefore I won't be putting too much of a heart into supply/demand law...

IndieG

AP - the problem is we don't know who the balance 70-80% (where did you get this figure from??) are. One can hazard a guess - with the recent spate of arrests one would imagine the jigsaw is getting pieced together slowly, and it is not a pretty pricture that is emerging.

Here's an interesting article on property bubbles:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/02/bu...in&oref=slogin

admon

There is a complete lack of sense to your post...

Why would any 'sharks' buy in a collapsing market?

Look at the collapses happening in the US, UK, Spain, etc....
No property business buys property when its on the way down in a collapse. They get out of the market as quick as possible - as they know that liquid (thats cash to you and me) is paramount.
Only when the collapsed market shows signs of new stimulation do property companies get themselves back in the market. Property companies worldwide do this because history shows them that property prices are cyclical in every country that has an active real estate market.
Always has, always will be...

You have to remember that these 'sharks', however many of them there are, are businesses, whether as a personal investor, or an institution. No investor worth their salt sits on their hands while their assets half in value.

And please don't start me on the 'this time will be different'...

I would also like to know where your figures are from? Pretty obvious you have just thought them up.

AlmostPregnant

Admon, if you read my post carefully it states: "THEN the sharks will be buying these properties off...", after the market has reached a low-tide mark (and it would be interesting to know how can we determine that). What I am saying is: small investors (those who bought and currently own 1 property only, mostly paying it out with a mortgage) will be selling off as soon as the market goes down, they have to mostly because they can't really afford to do anything else.

Businesses who own more and can afford to hold until next market cycle will try to hold on, and, even more, to purchase those sold off from the previous category again because this people know (or, better, they hope) that the market will pick up again, and in these category this is especially true for local investors.
These have, until now, bought in in this market but not as much as they potentially could, and they have bought a lot outside too. Again, it looks like they have been waiting. And they associate to properties a value which goes beyond the pure investment, monetary one: they do have large family, they do buy for their numerous sons and so on and so forth. Whichever direction the market will go, these great sons of the UAE will still need a place to stay, correct?

We don't do think like this, usually, as we don't really plan our family to settle roots in here (I guess?). Again, the RE is not a rational market, I won't handle it as such.

The figures I gave are an educated guess, obviously, if I had the correct percentage I would have reported it: "27%" instead of "20-30%", still I believe my way of thinking stands correct: small investors will suffer, local large investors will prosper, many shades of gray in between (Russian, Iranian, Subcontinental, etc...).

Indie: care to elaborate what you suggest or do we have to guess it?? Not everybody has your acumen and insight, truly so. Speak out! I'll treat you for Ras Malai...

TGFKASE

Whats up, IG? Is the sky away to fall?

IndieG

not the sky....no

read your karma...