Lockdown

Old Jun 14th 2020, 7:52 pm
  #361  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
the ankle tag and signed declaration should manage that.
There's the app as well?
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Old Jun 16th 2020, 5:45 am
  #362  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Millhouse
the ankle tag and signed declaration should manage that.
Nah, shock collars might do the trick though
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Old Jun 16th 2020, 5:38 pm
  #363  
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Default Re: Lockdown

I'm really curious to know how people (not just UAE, but anywhere) are still catching this. I mean - are they just unlucky, or careless? We're in month 4 of a global pandemic, with non-stop #stayhome, wear masks, wash your hands, stand 2m apart, don't meet family, no gatherings yada yada yada. It would be interesting (but impossible) to know how many of the current daily infections were people ignoring the rules vs people who for one reason or another couldn't follow the rules. Or are in really high-risk jobs (e.g. medics).
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Old Jun 16th 2020, 6:16 pm
  #364  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by csdf
I'm really curious to know how people (not just UAE, but anywhere) are still catching this. I mean - are they just unlucky, or careless? We're in month 4 of a global pandemic, with non-stop #stayhome, wear masks, wash your hands, stand 2m apart, don't meet family, no gatherings yada yada yada. It would be interesting (but impossible) to know how many of the current daily infections were people ignoring the rules vs people who for one reason or another couldn't follow the rules. Or are in really high-risk jobs (e.g. medics).
Really, it would be good if the whole world could get everyone to stay at home, locked in, for 20 days.

Governments could support food distribution so people can survive on reasonable rations, but nobody is allowed anywhere for that period. Anyone with the disease or who has just been infected will get it and get over it, potentially. Anyone with it who might die from it, dies from it. Everyone else comes out after the 20 days and the disease is eradicated - people either died or got over it and are no longer infectious.

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Old Jun 16th 2020, 7:10 pm
  #365  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Ha ha - I can just see going down well in Freedomland.
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Old Jun 16th 2020, 7:11 pm
  #366  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by csdf
Ha ha - I can just see going down well in Freedomland.
Just imagine though, it would rid the disease in a few weeks.
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Old Jun 16th 2020, 11:47 pm
  #367  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Local media here suggests that infections are happening with two groups

- People who catch it at work and spread it at home
- People who have willfully ignored the guidance and had gatherings
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Old Jun 17th 2020, 12:51 am
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by csdf
I'm really curious to know how people (not just UAE, but anywhere) are still catching this. I mean - are they just unlucky, or careless? We're in month 4 of a global pandemic, with non-stop #stayhome, wear masks, wash your hands, stand 2m apart, don't meet family, no gatherings yada yada yada. It would be interesting (but impossible) to know how many of the current daily infections were people ignoring the rules vs people who for one reason or another couldn't follow the rules. Or are in really high-risk jobs (e.g. medics).
Rioters, BLM protesters and people who topple statues and their enablers.
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Old Jun 17th 2020, 12:52 am
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Scamp
Really, it would be good if the whole world could get everyone to stay at home, locked in, for 20 days.

Governments could support food distribution so people can survive on reasonable rations, but nobody is allowed anywhere for that period. Anyone with the disease or who has just been infected will get it and get over it, potentially. Anyone with it who might die from it, dies from it. Everyone else comes out after the 20 days and the disease is eradicated - people either died or got over it and are no longer infectious.
China had extraordinarily restrictive lockdowns and drove the virus dormant, but still didn't manage to eliminate it and it's popped back up in Beijing. That tells you the limited effectiveness of the theory of locking everyone at home for 20 days.

You can't completely lock up society for 20 days. Someone has to deliver the food, for example. People still have to man the nuclear plants. People still need to staff hospitals in case someone has a heart attack or a nasty fall at home. Think carefully of all the things that still need oversight even during a 20 day quarantine. I'm sure animal feed lots didn't occur to you, but someone needs to feed the cows and chickens. Others need to keep the food supply chains moving forward.

Last edited by DXBtoDOH; Jun 17th 2020 at 12:56 am.
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Old Jun 17th 2020, 12:56 am
  #370  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
China had extraordinarily restrictive lockdowns and drove the virus dormant, but still didn't manage to eliminate it and it's popped back up in Beijing. That tells you the limited effectiveness of the theory of locking everyone at home for 20 days.
What if the whole world did it? I appreciate it's utopian but if every country shut their borders completely and kept everyone inside for that period, there'd be no new infections in theory.
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Old Jun 17th 2020, 1:10 am
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by Scamp
What if the whole world did it? I appreciate it's utopian but if every country shut their borders completely and kept everyone inside for that period, there'd be no new infections in theory.
The Asian flu epidemic of 1957 broke out of China and spread across the whole world. China in 1957 was a Maoist state that effectively did what you suggested, shutting their borders completely to the rest of the world and was a closed state.

The Wuhan lab bat flu is highly transmittable and can transmit by air. While almost all cases are due to prolonged exposure in close proximity via family members/coworkers, all it takes is for one person to infect an unlucky passing stranger and it does happen and that's why you're likely to see these mini outbreaks here and there despite extreme measures. With the high asymptomatic rates and that the large majority of people who exhibit symptoms only have mild symptoms, it's very easy for the virus to lie dormant or hidden while still slowly spreading. You're not vanquishing this any more than you can vanquish the common cold or yearly flu. You can mitigate it and that's about it.

The good news is that it will burn itself out the way the Spanish flu and the other Asian flu epidemics burned through and then flared out once herd immunity was achieved and became minor flus that occasionally kills. Through a combination of better treatment, knowledge, and herd immunity, COVID-19 will be largely kept down and made inconsequential, but people will still be dying of COVID-19 10 years from now, just as they die of the regular flu. A new virus is most lethal in its initial wave, culling the most susceptible (and why COVID-19 is so much a care home killer). We seem to have largely passed through that wave. The unknown question is whether it will mutate like the Spanish flu and a second wave begins this winter. The beloved media is fully convinced there will be one but I am somewhat doubtful for various reasons, but one thing for sure, we will spend all winter obsessed over the upcoming second wave.
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Old Jun 17th 2020, 6:44 am
  #372  
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Default Re: Lockdown

That Wuhan lab: a wonton lack of biosecurity.
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Old Jun 17th 2020, 8:46 am
  #373  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
China had extraordinarily restrictive lockdowns and drove the virus dormant, but still didn't manage to eliminate it and it's popped back up in Beijing. That tells you the limited effectiveness of the theory of locking everyone at home for 20 days.
South Africa, India and Jordan had even tougher measures, the first 2 actually lifted their measures predicting it will get much worse, while Jordan had some success

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Old Jun 17th 2020, 8:47 am
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by fth
Local media here suggests that infections are happening with two groups

- People who catch it at work and spread it at home
- People who have willfully ignored the guidance and had gatherings
A 3rd factor is that a large number of workers live in shared housing, and one person catching it may lead to the whole flat or half the camp getting it.....
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Old Jun 17th 2020, 5:22 pm
  #375  
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Default Re: Lockdown

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
The Asian flu epidemic of 1957 broke out of China and spread across the whole world. China in 1957 was a Maoist state that effectively did what you suggested, shutting their borders completely to the rest of the world and was a closed state.

The Wuhan lab bat flu is highly transmittable and can transmit by air. While almost all cases are due to prolonged exposure in close proximity via family members/coworkers, all it takes is for one person to infect an unlucky passing stranger and it does happen and that's why you're likely to see these mini outbreaks here and there despite extreme measures. With the high asymptomatic rates and that the large majority of people who exhibit symptoms only have mild symptoms, it's very easy for the virus to lie dormant or hidden while still slowly spreading. You're not vanquishing this any more than you can vanquish the common cold or yearly flu. You can mitigate it and that's about it.

The good news is that it will burn itself out the way the Spanish flu and the other Asian flu epidemics burned through and then flared out once herd immunity was achieved and became minor flus that occasionally kills. Through a combination of better treatment, knowledge, and herd immunity, COVID-19 will be largely kept down and made inconsequential, but people will still be dying of COVID-19 10 years from now, just as they die of the regular flu. A new virus is most lethal in its initial wave, culling the most susceptible (and why COVID-19 is so much a care home killer). We seem to have largely passed through that wave. The unknown question is whether it will mutate like the Spanish flu and a second wave begins this winter. The beloved media is fully convinced there will be one but I am somewhat doubtful for various reasons, but one thing for sure, we will spend all winter obsessed over the upcoming second wave.
I learned a lot from this post. It was made in a Wuhan lab, it'll burn itself out (like other natural flu's, hopefully they engineered that into it), we're back to looking for herd immunity, it'll become inconsequential even though people will still die from it and second wave is going to hang back until winter to reappear.

Thank goodness for you and you're all-knowing mind.
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