Lockdown
Apr 23rd 2020, 6:26 am
#166
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,887
Re: Lockdown
Long term, we are building in more structural inequality. It is the structural inequality that worries me more than anything else. Luckily, I'm on the right side of the equation, and so will my children.
Apr 23rd 2020, 7:57 am
#167
Account Closed
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 0
Re: Lockdown
It will probably go the same path as all the others... asset booms that benefit the rich, and paid for by taxing the middle classes. The poor will always remain poor.
Long term, we are building in more structural inequality. It is the structural inequality that worries me more than anything else. Luckily, I'm on the right side of the equation, and so will my children.
Long term, we are building in more structural inequality. It is the structural inequality that worries me more than anything else. Luckily, I'm on the right side of the equation, and so will my children.
Apr 23rd 2020, 9:35 am
#168
Account Closed
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 0
Re: Lockdown
World GDP is around $85,000 billion
World population is around 8 billion
GDP/ person = $10,000
Cost of COVID - estimated between 2,000 and 4,000 billion
Worst case number of estimated deaths is between 2 and 50 million
2,000-4000 billion cost / 2-50 million = between 40,000 - 2,000,000 per life saved
So somewhere between 4 and 200 times the GDP per person.
Now if it's mostly the old and ill dying, then maybe we should have used a lower GDP/person as these people could be economically inactive.
Worth it? That's the political decision that no one wants to make.
What we do know is that the economic destruction we are doing will drive millions into poverty and expose them to all sorts of illnesses and premature deaths that won't get accounted for.
World population is around 8 billion
GDP/ person = $10,000
Cost of COVID - estimated between 2,000 and 4,000 billion
Worst case number of estimated deaths is between 2 and 50 million
2,000-4000 billion cost / 2-50 million = between 40,000 - 2,000,000 per life saved
So somewhere between 4 and 200 times the GDP per person.
Now if it's mostly the old and ill dying, then maybe we should have used a lower GDP/person as these people could be economically inactive.
Worth it? That's the political decision that no one wants to make.
What we do know is that the economic destruction we are doing will drive millions into poverty and expose them to all sorts of illnesses and premature deaths that won't get accounted for.
Apr 23rd 2020, 9:38 am
#170
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jun 2010
Location: Abu Dhabi
Posts: 1,171
Re: Lockdown
Abu Dhabi recently cancelled all bus services, and have now started spraying disinfectant during the day (a lorry just went past my house an hour ago). And field hospitals continue to open with 1000s of beds of capacity. Are things opening up in Dubai?
Apr 23rd 2020, 9:56 am
#171
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,887
Re: Lockdown
Apr 23rd 2020, 9:58 am
#172
Account Closed
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 0
Re: Lockdown
It's unfortunate isn't it. If you read it, it's clear that there's going to be some new 'freedoms' but not today....but the average commenters seem to think it's carte blanche to be a helmet.
Apr 23rd 2020, 10:22 am
#173
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,887
Re: Lockdown
Apr 23rd 2020, 10:39 am
#174
Account Closed
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 0
Apr 23rd 2020, 11:53 am
#175
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 3,520
Re: Lockdown
WHO estimates half the deaths are from care homes. We can reasonably infer many if not most of the deaths outside care homes are still among a similar demographics who still live in their own homes.
The data from China, as corrupt as it might be, was still mirrored by Italy. Average age of death 80ish with existing comorbidities.
In the US, one state, Minnesota, has an average age at 84. Massachusetts is around 81.
That's the data. But we're treating the virus as if it was killing broad swathes of the population. But it's not. As Millhouse points out, the economic toll on broad swathes of the population is a killer in it's own way.
The data from China, as corrupt as it might be, was still mirrored by Italy. Average age of death 80ish with existing comorbidities.
In the US, one state, Minnesota, has an average age at 84. Massachusetts is around 81.
That's the data. But we're treating the virus as if it was killing broad swathes of the population. But it's not. As Millhouse points out, the economic toll on broad swathes of the population is a killer in it's own way.
Apr 23rd 2020, 12:03 pm
#176
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 3,520
Apr 23rd 2020, 12:52 pm
#177
Account Closed
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 0
Re: Lockdown
WHO estimates half the deaths are from care homes. We can reasonably infer many if not most of the deaths outside care homes are still among a similar demographics who still live in their own homes.
The data from China, as corrupt as it might be, was still mirrored by Italy. Average age of death 80ish with existing comorbidities.
In the US, one state, Minnesota, has an average age at 84. Massachusetts is around 81.
That's the data. But we're treating the virus as if it was killing broad swathes of the population. But it's not. As Millhouse points out, the economic toll on broad swathes of the population is a killer in it's own way.
The data from China, as corrupt as it might be, was still mirrored by Italy. Average age of death 80ish with existing comorbidities.
In the US, one state, Minnesota, has an average age at 84. Massachusetts is around 81.
That's the data. But we're treating the virus as if it was killing broad swathes of the population. But it's not. As Millhouse points out, the economic toll on broad swathes of the population is a killer in it's own way.
Apr 23rd 2020, 12:53 pm
#178
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 3,520
Re: Lockdown
It will probably go the same path as all the others... asset booms that benefit the rich, and paid for by taxing the middle classes. The poor will always remain poor.
Long term, we are building in more structural inequality. It is the structural inequality that worries me more than anything else. Luckily, I'm on the right side of the equation, and so will my children.
Long term, we are building in more structural inequality. It is the structural inequality that worries me more than anything else. Luckily, I'm on the right side of the equation, and so will my children.
In UK it's probably 1/3 asset owning classes and 2/3rds workers?
