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For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort of)

For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort of)

Old Nov 27th 2009, 11:07 am
  #16  
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Is this bad? HA

Sovereign bankruptcy is rare but is generally on a disaster scale when it happens! In addition, usually this happens in countries that have small economies and no resources and just have no way of generating cash and are in the end assisted by the IMF. Doubtful the IMF is going to give half a shit about a country filled with idiots, run by idiots, and whose money went to building bullshit gimics like the palm islands (2 now abandoned) and solid gold toilets for their ruling family.

So what happens next? Dubai defaults, has no access to credit, and the following.

1) Power generation and water service shuts down (no money to run)
2) Police force quits en masse (no pay)
3) Trash collection ceases.
4) Any building owned by any gov't related entity sees a total end to maintenance and services.
5) Dubai rots rather quickly and starts to resemble an african capital city rather than some sandy disneyworld creation.

Enjoy yourselves. Probably best to get out while you can.
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 11:15 am
  #17  
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Originally Posted by TA5
Is this bad? HA

Sovereign bankruptcy is rare but is generally on a disaster scale when it happens! In addition, usually this happens in countries that have small economies and no resources and just have no way of generating cash and are in the end assisted by the IMF. Doubtful the IMF is going to give half a shit about a country filled with idiots, run by idiots, and whose money went to building bullshit gimics like the palm islands (2 now abandoned) and solid gold toilets for their ruling family.

So what happens next? Dubai defaults, has no access to credit, and the following.

1) Power generation and water service shuts down (no money to run)
2) Police force quits en masse (no pay)
3) Trash collection ceases.
4) Any building owned by any gov't related entity sees a total end to maintenance and services.
5) Dubai rots rather quickly and starts to resemble an african capital city rather than some sandy disneyworld creation.

Enjoy yourselves. Probably best to get out while you can.
But Abu Dhabi would never let it get that far. It is too exposed to Dubai's image (the UAE is supposed to be a united federation don't forget) and it's not like it doesn't have the dollars to assist.
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 11:48 am
  #18  
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Originally Posted by xoxo
But Abu Dhabi would never let it get that far. It is too exposed to Dubai's image (the UAE is supposed to be a united federation don't forget) and it's not like it doesn't have the dollars to assist.

You overestimate the willingness of AD to fork over the roughly 60 BILLION that dubai needs to come up with. AD really doesn't need dubai, and if you haven't noticed from inside Abu Dhabi has been putting on an aggressive international PR campaign to separate itself politically and economically from dubai. United federation my ass, the Nahyan's couldn't give a rats ass about the maktoum's, and that's gonna show over the next 6 months. In addition, being of a much more intelligent breed, AD realized quickly that any 'investment' in dubai was destined for failure, and since getting burned on a few recent investments they are going to be pretty hesitant to dump any more money into doobyebye.

edit. If you are really wondering what happens when a gov't defaults read the following, which is eerily similar. Remember, when the government defaults (which they will, creditors don't EVER let somebody tell THEM when they will pay them back) the dirham will essentially be worthless (the peg doesn't work in default) and banks will essentially shut down and lock their doors (with your money inside).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argenti...2%80%932002%29

Last edited by TA5; Nov 27th 2009 at 11:54 am.
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 12:08 pm
  #19  
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Originally Posted by TA5
AD really doesn't need dubai...

the dirham will essentially be worthless (the peg doesn't work in default...
You might want to think about the link between these two statements...
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 12:18 pm
  #20  
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Originally Posted by TA5
In addition, being of a much more intelligent breed, AD realized quickly that any 'investment' in dubai was destined for failure, and since getting burned on a few recent investments they are going to be pretty hesitant to dump any more money into doobyebye.
I wouldn't say that AD is a more intelligent breed than Dubai.

They just have access to the money making machine that is oil, which Dubai does not.

AD will keep the UAE stable, but no doubt enjoy seeing Dubai knocked down a peg or two.
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 12:59 pm
  #21  
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Originally Posted by typical
You might want to think about the link between these two statements...
Fair point.
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 1:01 pm
  #22  
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Now there's speculation that Dubai's debt holdings may be even greater than 80-90 billion. Report from the UBS.

This isn't solely money. It's now about the loss of confidence and that will have far more implication than the exchange of one set of debt for another set of debt.

Makes one wonder if we're now in for an absolutely, genuinely spectacular collapse that we had waited for through most of the spring months? Can't say I want such an event to happen because I am an expat out here and I don't want the uncertainty of a job loss and don't wish it on others.
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 1:10 pm
  #23  
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Yeah, it's bad, but reading comments like this cheer me up:

http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thre...0448#paginator


'I live in Dubai and at this time the situation is horrendous. Emirates our airline is going bust, over 70 aeroplanes being grounded at this very moment and violence and looting has broken out in some zones of Dubai particularly targeted at Banks and Insurance companies.

Abdhel Rahman, Dubai '

I expect AD will be happy to really have Dubai by the proverbial balls now. I doubt they will let Dubai go under though.
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 1:57 pm
  #24  
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Originally Posted by NorthernLad
at this very moment and violence and looting has broken out in some zones of Dubai particularly targeted at Banks and Insurance companies.

Abdhel Rahman, Dubai '.
Naw. He mistook a bunch of Emiratis fighting over the last krispy kreme donut.
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 2:18 pm
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Who was that guy who said investing in Dubai property was a sure-fire winner, even up to a few months ago? Can't remember his name.
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 2:21 pm
  #26  
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Originally Posted by littlejimmy
Who was that guy who said investing in Dubai property was a sure-fire winner, even up to a few months ago? Can't remember his name.
Peter J Cooper. He is probably one of the dumbest people ever born. He has been saying that dubai is a great investment up until yesterday. A true moron i must say. he has a blog where he perpetually spews his idiotic thoughts
www.arabianmoney.net
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 2:28 pm
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

one last thought. its been said here many times that the stability of dubai is thanks to the fact that locals are given food, housing, and money (and a land cruiser) regardless of their work status. This is credited with eliminating any sort of radicalism in the country.

What is going to happen when those checks stop coming. I'd start being very careful around there, because they'll be looking at the westerners for someone to blame.
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 2:31 pm
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Originally Posted by TA5
Peter J Cooper. He is probably one of the dumbest people ever born. He has been saying that dubai is a great investment up until yesterday. A true moron i must say. he has a blog where he perpetually spews his idiotic thoughts
www.arabianmoney.net
I meant a poster on here. Dunno if it's the same guy.

Here's an excerpt from my blog dated 1st July 2007, just before I left:

"A good friend asked me a question before I moved here, and now I can see where he's coming from. He asked. "Who are they building it all for? Who is going to live there?" From a small desert settlement, this metropolis has materialised like a mirage from the barren sands of the Arabian desert. In thirty years, less time than I have been alive, this city has flourished in the most inhospitable of places, and it has only just started. The scale of the construction taking place or proposed to take place is truly staggering. The infrastructure is being added or altered as an after-thought. I don't understand how it can be sustainable. The power and water requirements for what is already here are staggering; the UAE being the one of if not the biggest consumers of resources per capita in the world. It just doesn't ring true. The powers-that-be have amazing visions of vast cities full of vibrant culture and a lifestyle to aspire to, but as I've heard said: In dreams begin responsibilities. I hope it doesn't all fall down round their ears, but I just sense that the place doesn't have enough backbone, enough foundation. It is all built on sand, after all."

I'm just a bloody QS with a big belly. Surely other more better people than me saw this coming?
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 2:38 pm
  #29  
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Originally Posted by littlejimmy
I meant a poster on here. Dunno if it's the same guy.

Here's an excerpt from my blog dated 1st July 2007, just before I left:

"A good friend asked me a question before I moved here, and now I can see where he's coming from. He asked. "Who are they building it all for? Who is going to live there?" From a small desert settlement, this metropolis has materialised like a mirage from the barren sands of the Arabian desert. In thirty years, less time than I have been alive, this city has flourished in the most inhospitable of places, and it has only just started. The scale of the construction taking place or proposed to take place is truly staggering. The infrastructure is being added or altered as an after-thought. I don't understand how it can be sustainable. The power and water requirements for what is already here are staggering; the UAE being the one of if not the biggest consumers of resources per capita in the world. It just doesn't ring true. The powers-that-be have amazing visions of vast cities full of vibrant culture and a lifestyle to aspire to, but as I've heard said: In dreams begin responsibilities. I hope it doesn't all fall down round their ears, but I just sense that the place doesn't have enough backbone, enough foundation. It is all built on sand, after all."

I'm just a bloody QS with a big belly. Surely other more better people than me saw this coming?
If you look back through my posts i've been predicting this since 2004

Edit. I find it rather ironic, and fitting, that when every major financial news network has 5 articles about the dubai debt issue the 2 main (and censored) UAE newspapers (GN and Khaleej) are more interested in photos of the ruling families offering eid prayers than the fact that Dubai just imploded.

Last edited by TA5; Nov 27th 2009 at 2:42 pm.
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Old Nov 27th 2009, 2:43 pm
  #30  
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Default Re: For the financial experts (and the rest of you too): Dubai defaults on debt (sort

Originally Posted by TA5
one last thought. its been said here many times that the stability of dubai is thanks to the fact that locals are given food, housing, and money (and a land cruiser) regardless of their work status. This is credited with eliminating any sort of radicalism in the country.

What is going to happen when those checks stop coming. I'd start being very careful around there, because they'll be looking at the westerners for someone to blame.
It will go like Saudi, where there already isn't enough to go around.

The Princelings will hide behind high walls, protected by their paramilitary forces from those who are deemed to have 'deviant thoughts'.

Had a long walk around central Jeddah last evening, in an even worse state than usual thanks to the recent heavy rains, it's pretty much like an African city down there - without the music.
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