Desert Shaikh

Just been searching for villas in Dubai on the off chance I might find a bargain and although they seem to have dropped quite a bit, I just wanted to get the views of those based in Dubai if further drops are likely. At the moment a decent sized 3 bedroom, detached villa in Jumeirah Park with ample garden space is advertised for 2.4 Million DHS.

News articles are mixed with some saying further drops of 40% are expected and some saying that they have reached the bottom.

Gavtek

I'm no expert (but when has that ever stopped anyone) but usually there's a lag between a drop in rental price and a corresponding drop in property value.

Rents are still dropping all over the place, which would mean that property values are still some way from bottoming out.

Jumeirah Park may be a little more on the stable side, but the further you go towards the desert, the worse it is.

Desert Shaikh

I agree with you and guess it is now just a waiting game. The Dubai economy in general is in freefall and even before the COVID crisis things were not looking very good. I am guessing no jobs or businesses will mean distress sales as expats and investors will rush to cash out and leave ASAP.

Millhouse

Remember prices can go down as well as down.

DXBtoDOH

These villas on the Ranches were going for, what, 7M AED at the peak of the 2008 boom?
https://www.propertyfinder.ae/en/buy...1-7613796.html

Edit: just looked at rents in the Greens. Whoa! They're now even asking less than at the bottom of the rental market in 2009-2010.

1-beds in Park Island in the Marina have dropped below 60k!?! WTF?

Scamp

Somebody on this very forum used an expression years ago that has stuck with me when anyone was asking about buying here - "you need a full frontal lobotomy".

That being said, some very successful people I've worked with have all owned here and laugh at the fact we've paid millions of dirhams in rent over the last 9+ years. 'If you're somewhere more than 5 years, it's better to buy'
Typically I answered those folks with a polite reminder that not everyone earns 100,000 a month.

Millhouse

They are overlooking the interest charges, opportunity cost of the equity and the liquidity discount.

I've spent 1.7m Dh on rent since I've been here (12 years in a mix of flats and houses). My colleague lives in a very similar house that he bought for 3.6m. He mortgaged it and even borrowed (from his employer that secured it on his pension so he cannot default) for the deposit. He has lived in that house for 4.5 years and is currently looking at around 1.5m of paper losses on a house he can no longer sell, and has spent around 1m in interest and 40k in service charges.

Scamp

All valid arguments and most are beyond the normal - 'yeah, but rent is just pissing money away'

I follow a few different things about investing. I'm at a point where my cash needs to start doing something, is it a buy-to-let in the UK? Maybe, but whenever people suggest that in investing arenas they get laughed at as very average returns. Big funds seem to do well long term, but there's a pull to housing that's undeniable, especially in a market like the UK where the investment seems very safe.

NorthernLad

We always took the view that buying a house in Dubai was too much of a risk - we nearly bought in 2008, that was a close shave and I count ourselves lucky we didn't. The laws can change very quickly and also if you lose your job then you need to find something else or leave.

I slept soundly at night knowing in the worst case we could just pack up and leave relatively quickly.

There are people who made good money in the past, but I'm certain there are a lot more people who have lost large sums of money and cancelled out what should be the reason for being there in the first place.

Millhouse

... and the only money in the country is enough to cover the rent and the credit card bill.

Scamp

A buddy of mine had a place, bought, lived in, then rented, then sold. Made about 70k GBP after all was done, good for him. Think he got lucky and for every one of him that you hear, there are many more who get burned that don't tell you.

NorthernLad

I left a 'dads' FB page, but judging by the posts I last saw, there are a lot of people who can't ever cover that.

Millhouse

Trying to keep 10 year old motors alive and hunting for cheap veggies at Vida. Can’t say that’s the reason I signed up to becoming an expat.

Butterich

Interesting thread - I wonder if real estate could be a thing taking a contrarian view right now and dip in. I don’t think economical we have seen the full effect of the oil price and the COVID stuff yet but much of it might be priced in. Is anybody living in Bahrain and/or has looked into real estate there? I know it’s a small market compared to Dubai but just wondering how prices have been affected there compared to the peak times.