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Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Old Sep 18th 2019, 10:34 am
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Millhouse
The successful investor is one who can make money (or at least minimize losses) when they roll the 1. Everyone thinks they can win on the upside (and sometimes they do) but the real winner is the person who manages the downside properly.
Id rather be the broker in all of this and take a nice sizeable commission/spread and feed you "highly advanced research" in order for you to churn your accounts !
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Old Sep 18th 2019, 10:52 am
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by UKCityGent
Id rather be the broker in all of this and take a nice sizeable commission/spread and feed you "highly advanced research" in order for you to churn your accounts !
True - or better trade with OPM.

In my line of work we always try and avoid mediated deals. They usually only work only for two people: the seller and the broker.


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Old Sep 18th 2019, 10:54 am
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Millhouse
The successful investor is one who can make money (or at least minimize losses) when they roll the 1. Everyone thinks they can win on the upside (and sometimes they do) but the real winner is the person who manages the downside properly.
Thing is, you only lose if you sell at a loss. Holding isn't losing.
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Old Sep 18th 2019, 11:49 am
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Scamp
Thing is, you only lose if you sell at a loss. Holding isn't losing.
I've sold at a headline loss and come out completely clean. No gain, no loss, money back. That's proper investment structuring - manage the downsides and the upside will take care of itself.

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Old Sep 18th 2019, 11:50 am
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Millhouse
I've sold at a headline loss and come out completely clean. No gain, no loss, money back. That's proper investment structuring - manage the downsides and the upside will take care of itself.
Sometimes you just have to step back, look at yourself in the mirror, realise you're a demi-God and accept that you've won at life already. That's how I play it anyway.
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Old Sep 18th 2019, 12:35 pm
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Scamp
Sometimes you just have to step back, look at yourself in the mirror, realise you're a demi-God and accept that you've won at life already. That's how I play it anyway.

Are you selling yourself short (pun intended)
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Old Sep 18th 2019, 12:38 pm
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by UKCityGent
Are you selling yourself short (pun intended)
Maybe you're right. Maybe I'm a genuine, complete God.
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Old Sep 18th 2019, 12:50 pm
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Scamp
Sometimes you just have to step back, look at yourself in the mirror, realise you're a demi-God and accept that you've won at life already. That's how I play it anyway.
Nah, it's a fairly standard provision we negotiated - but the principle is right, when you invest you should look at all the possible ways you will lose the money and try and mitigate as many of them as possible. Most people only look at the ways it will make them rich.

Using the dice rolling analogy... where 1 is a loss, 3 is break even, 6 is a great deal, of the deals done in our current fund, we have:
3 (which we thought would be a 6 but we didn't lose anything so all good),
6 (which I thought would be a three - all down to luck),
1 (which I think will be a one, but others think it will be a five/six)
3 (which I think will be a three, but others think it will be a two)
3/4 (which I think will be a three/four, others agree)
5 (which I think will be a three)

So you can see - in a standard fund we expect to lose on one, make out on two, and break even on three. That's how it rolls in reality - anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. We have one deal that is a swing deal which will basically make us kings, or just above average. If we stay on this track we will be one of the best performing regional funds, but note, it is a very low bar.
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Old Sep 18th 2019, 1:16 pm
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Millhouse
Nah, it's a fairly standard provision we negotiated - but the principle is right, when you invest you should look at all the possible ways you will lose the money and try and mitigate as many of them as possible. Most people only look at the ways it will make them rich.

Using the dice rolling analogy... where 1 is a loss, 3 is break even, 6 is a great deal, of the deals done in our current fund, we have:
3 (which we thought would be a 6 but we didn't lose anything so all good),
6 (which I thought would be a three - all down to luck),
1 (which I think will be a one, but others think it will be a five/six)
3 (which I think will be a three, but others think it will be a two)
3/4 (which I think will be a three/four, others agree)
5 (which I think will be a three)

So you can see - in a standard fund we expect to lose on one, make out on two, and break even on three. That's how it rolls in reality - anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. We have one deal that is a swing deal which will basically make us kings, or just above average. If we stay on this track we will be one of the best performing regional funds, but note, it is a very low bar.
You're not really mitigating any of the rolls individually, but working on having a basket of goods in your favour. Basically by rolling enough and ensuring one of them has only got a 4,5 or 6 on it.
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Old Sep 18th 2019, 1:19 pm
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Scamp
You're not really mitigating any of the rolls individually, but working on having a basket of goods in your favour. Basically by rolling enough and ensuring one of them has only got a 4,5 or 6 on it.
Actually, we try and do both. The portfolio affect as well as individual risk mitigation... for instance, the first deal which we thought was a six, was almost nearly a one. We got a three due to us spotting a misalignment of interests risk and negotiating a provision to protect us for it. Kind of like weighting the dice a bit in your favor.

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Old Sep 18th 2019, 1:22 pm
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Millhouse
Actually, we try and do both. The portfolio affect as well as individual risk mitigation... for instance, the first deal which we thought was a six, was almost nearly a one. We got a three due to us spotting a misalignment of interests risk and negotiating a provision to protect us for it. Kind of like weighting the dice a bit in your favor.
Interesting stuff mate, sounds like you were on a roll.
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Old Sep 18th 2019, 1:26 pm
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Scamp
Interesting stuff mate, sounds like you were on a roll.
nah, itโ€™s luck. One deal caught us on the upside by surprise ๐Ÿ˜ƒ
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Old Sep 19th 2019, 4:17 am
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Millhouse


nah, itโ€™s luck. One deal caught us on the upside by surprise ๐Ÿ˜ƒ
Did you deliberately ignore my dice pun?
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Old Sep 19th 2019, 5:29 am
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Scamp
Did you deliberately ignore my dice pun?
I saw it.
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Old Sep 19th 2019, 6:23 am
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Default Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels

Originally Posted by Millhouse
The successful investor is one who can make money (or at least minimize losses) when they roll the 1. Everyone thinks they can win on the upside (and sometimes they do) but the real winner is the person who manages the downside properly.
The true "guru" knows that long term success is less about the picks and all about a staking plan that can withstand variance.
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