Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels
Sep 19th 2019, 10:10 am
#61
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Feb 2007
Location: Kuwait
Posts: 1,202
Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels
Nah, it's a fairly standard provision we negotiated - but the principle is right, when you invest you should look at all the possible ways you will lose the money and try and mitigate as many of them as possible. Most people only look at the ways it will make them rich.
Using the dice rolling analogy... where 1 is a loss, 3 is break even, 6 is a great deal, of the deals done in our current fund, we have:
3 (which we thought would be a 6 but we didn't lose anything so all good),
6 (which I thought would be a three - all down to luck),
1 (which I think will be a one, but others think it will be a five/six)
3 (which I think will be a three, but others think it will be a two)
3/4 (which I think will be a three/four, others agree)
5 (which I think will be a three)
So you can see - in a standard fund we expect to lose on one, make out on two, and break even on three. That's how it rolls in reality - anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. We have one deal that is a swing deal which will basically make us kings, or just above average. If we stay on this track we will be one of the best performing regional funds, but note, it is a very low bar.
Using the dice rolling analogy... where 1 is a loss, 3 is break even, 6 is a great deal, of the deals done in our current fund, we have:
3 (which we thought would be a 6 but we didn't lose anything so all good),
6 (which I thought would be a three - all down to luck),
1 (which I think will be a one, but others think it will be a five/six)
3 (which I think will be a three, but others think it will be a two)
3/4 (which I think will be a three/four, others agree)
5 (which I think will be a three)
So you can see - in a standard fund we expect to lose on one, make out on two, and break even on three. That's how it rolls in reality - anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. We have one deal that is a swing deal which will basically make us kings, or just above average. If we stay on this track we will be one of the best performing regional funds, but note, it is a very low bar.
Sep 23rd 2019, 4:41 pm
#63
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,887
Sep 24th 2019, 10:35 am
#64
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,887
Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels
Q3 numbers are in - impressive given that the quarter isn't over yet.
https://www.zawya.com/uae/en/busines...SNG_154699718/
https://www.zawya.com/uae/en/busines...SNG_154699718/
Sep 24th 2019, 11:37 am
#65
Knee deep and rising
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,007
Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels
Q3 numbers are in - impressive given that the quarter isn't over yet.
https://www.zawya.com/uae/en/busines...SNG_154699718/
https://www.zawya.com/uae/en/busines...SNG_154699718/
Sep 25th 2019, 3:34 am
#66
Wannabe Cycling God
Joined: Jul 2009
Location: West Kensington, Dubai
Posts: 1,157
Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels
This stood out for me -
"Total international guests Jan-July 2019 reached 9.58 million, up 3.6% when compared to the same period last year.
Citywide occupancy rate for the same period stood at 74%, dipped 2% YoY. Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) and Average Daily Rate (ADR) witnessed double-digit declines on annual basis, plunged 13.5% and 11.3%, respectively."
The Chinese tourism factor. Occupancy up slightly, RevPar down quite a lot.
"Total international guests Jan-July 2019 reached 9.58 million, up 3.6% when compared to the same period last year.
Citywide occupancy rate for the same period stood at 74%, dipped 2% YoY. Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) and Average Daily Rate (ADR) witnessed double-digit declines on annual basis, plunged 13.5% and 11.3%, respectively."
The Chinese tourism factor. Occupancy up slightly, RevPar down quite a lot.
Sep 25th 2019, 8:06 am
#67
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,887
Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels
This stood out for me -
"Total international guests Jan-July 2019 reached 9.58 million, up 3.6% when compared to the same period last year.
Citywide occupancy rate for the same period stood at 74%, dipped 2% YoY. Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) and Average Daily Rate (ADR) witnessed double-digit declines on annual basis, plunged 13.5% and 11.3%, respectively."
The Chinese tourism factor. Occupancy up slightly, RevPar down quite a lot.
"Total international guests Jan-July 2019 reached 9.58 million, up 3.6% when compared to the same period last year.
Citywide occupancy rate for the same period stood at 74%, dipped 2% YoY. Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) and Average Daily Rate (ADR) witnessed double-digit declines on annual basis, plunged 13.5% and 11.3%, respectively."
The Chinese tourism factor. Occupancy up slightly, RevPar down quite a lot.
Sep 25th 2019, 8:54 am
#68
Wannabe Cycling God
Joined: Jul 2009
Location: West Kensington, Dubai
Posts: 1,157
Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels
I believe the RevPar numbers etc. as I know the ex-Deloitte team that prepare them, and I mostly agree with your conclusion. I do question the government numbers and that tourist arrivals are up, and I certainly wonder what the definition of a tourist is. Someone on a 3-month tourist visa looking for a job or whoring is not a tourist but would almost certainly be recorded as one.
Nov 3rd 2019, 1:00 pm
#69
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2019
Location: Riyadh
Posts: 317
Re: Dubai Housing Prices Tumble To 2008 Levels
I believe the RevPar numbers etc. as I know the ex-Deloitte team that prepare them, and I mostly agree with your conclusion. I do question the government numbers and that tourist arrivals are up, and I certainly wonder what the definition of a tourist is. Someone on a 3-month tourist visa looking for a job or whoring is not a tourist but would almost certainly be recorded as one.
