Dubai economy?
 

I've been gone from Dubai since 2013 and have been thinking about moving back someday. However have been hearing that the economy is going through tough times. Is it true? How does it compare to 2008/9?

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Re: Dubai economy?
 

2008 was a pretty wild time. So many friends got sent home from Dubai. And even stranger, there were suddenly ample parking spaces at every mall. Imagine!!

Seems like a return to Dubai is off the cards, for the time being. Maybe someday!!

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Definitely less drastic than 2008 in terms of cliff edge but it's not great.

Go to Saudi. All roads lead to Riyadh.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

I keep hearing that Saudi is the place to be, but I don't see the evidence of that. Loads of western expats have left and are getting fewer and fewer - seemingly. Most of the companies I've worked for previously are seriously ramping up their Saudisation programmes, The usual tell tale sings are all too apparent - availability on compounds, people at shopping malls, eating out at restaurants etc . Maybe they're all hiding from me.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

From our economics subscription:

"National accounts figures released this week showed that Saudi Arabia's economy officially entered recession in Q2 and Qatar's economy shrunk too, all of which supports our below-consensus 2019 GDP growth forecasts for the Gulf economies. Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on Lebanon's dollar peg and while there are reasons to think that the immediate risk of devaluation is small, failure to tighten policy will keep macro imbalances large and leave the currency vulnerable to a shock."

When KSA sinks, the region sinks.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Sounds about right. KSA seems desperate to divert away from oil revenues and is seriously pushing tourism with the recent launch of the tourist visa and now bringing in more and more entertainment events to attract visitors. I wouldn't have said it was in a recession though.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

The issue with calling a recession in somewhere like KSA is that you may not feel it. The oil sector is massive and might be in a recession which will bring the entire GDP numbers down to recession levels - the non-oil sector could be doing just fine in this scenario if it is based on imported tourism etc. but it doesn't move the GDP needle. Usually, they try and split out oil and non-oil parts of the economy.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

It's not necessarily now, but next year and the next decade in KSA. It's the new Dubai, but the entire ****ing place.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Exactly why Dubai is toast.

A few reforms in KSA, some large freezones and Dubai is gone forever. Just as Dubai did to Bahrain. DIFC will be the KIFC... and probably with KFC in the basement.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Yup.

Thinking it's going to be worth moving that way soon. Be part of the revolution. I missed the boat in Dubai because I'm too young (and cool, obvs), but I can definitely be one of those early ***** who made a fortune by virtue of just being there in the boom time.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

I remember back in early 2009, just after the crash, some sob story in the papers about a British expat couple who'd lived in the UAE for 30 years not having the money to pay for the container home and the cheque bounced and the husband was sent to prison till the money could be raised. There were others who also bailed out to avoid debt. So just because you get into a place at the beginning doesn't mean you'll be making your fortune, Mr Scamp.

Besides, what will you do for your local in Saudi? No boozers in the place, apparently.

I daresay some of you are a bit pessimistic about Dubai's long term prospects. It's not Saudi, and it is a virtue.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

I'm not pessimistic about Dubai, this place will continue to be a decent place to be and offer some great opportunities. But in reality the gravy train will end.

There might not be an obvious local in KSA but it's only a matter of time until there are actual watering holes. If wrong then just avoiding a descent into alcoholism or join in at embassy drinks or with home brew if needed. Failing that, a healthier life awaits!

Re: Dubai economy?
 

I'm glad you acknowledge there's more to life than boozing ;)

I just find Saudi a difficult nut to crack. The UAE is much more predictable. Higher quality of life. Think of it as a little Switzerland in the region. There's too many factors at play in Saudi for it to turn into a serious competitor to the UAE.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Wow! Lots of interesting perspectives.

I hope things improve in Dubai, it was such a good place to be 2004-2013, though we were very fortunate to stay employed through the messy years.

Singapore was great 2013-2918 but the market is showing signs of stalling.

Maybe Riyadh is the next port! I've been there many times and actually like it. It's a professional environment, and in some respects underrated. I'm not a huge drinker so that makes no difference to me. I'll investigate, and see if anything is happening in the marketing/communication area I work in.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

I'm in Jeddah as I write this and cannot ever remember seeing it so quiet in the 20 years I've been coming here. I was in Dharan last week and the sentiment is definitely negative towards the economy, even among the Saudis.

I very much doubt Saudi will ever become Dubai, but for the construction folk, this could be the place to be for a few years.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Agree with all of that.

One thing about the Saudisation though, I'm never quite sure how many of them are genuine workers. Got loads of chairwarmers in my company. I think women entering the workforce is going to make the biggest change to numbers. More and more of them all the time. Even in the backwards place I am located.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Will all these projects actually happen though? They talk a good game....

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Plenty of boozers in the place. IME the people who do Saudi the best are couples in a happy relationship with no need for clubs, or older guys just trying to rake in the cash. If you don't mind more of a laidback social scene Saudi's fine.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Was speaking to a Saudi colleague about this the other day. He thought it was coming soon, but I can't see it personally. I actually don't mind things the way they are. The driving is bad enough as it is.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Had a great social life when I lived in Riyadh.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

For low to middle income groups they're definitely hurting. Cuts in subsidies, gas went up again recently. They're even getting smaller cars.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Oh bud, I'd much rather be in the UAE as things stand, I do enjoy a beerio and whatnot so why bugger that up?

I've actually been having a sniff at what there may be in Abu Dhabi. It seems much more relaxed and chilled out, plus we have some close friends down there and always enjoy it when we're there.

Some will, some won't. MBS seems pretty driven and they're cracking on employing consultants to get things going for a number of them. We can barely keep up with the RFPs - especially for help with procurement, which is a positive sign.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Payment is, always has been and always will be the issue in Saudi. Lots of stuff gets started but then slows down or stops when the inevitable payment issues arise. And the government is the worst payer of all. This will always be the limit on the degree of boom. Lots of big multinationals have a lot of debt in Saudi that may never be recovered. If you are an SME or freelancer then you should consider nothing else as a priority.

For all his energy, MBS is an erratic mess like Walid bin Talal on speed. The worst of all khaleeji qualities only slightly masked by occasional "progressive" thinking. The size of the economy and the burning need for development are both such that Saudi will continue to offer a lot more opportunities than elsewhere in the Gulf where the hangovers from the artificial expo and WC boomlets will be severe. However, it will never be another Dubai, which will still have a role, as Millhouse nailed it characteristically: kind of like a slightly less down-at-heel Bahrain. Though I definitely wouldn't want to hang around until the Brexit refugees arrive!! (I accept the shoehorn of the week award gratefully).

Re: Dubai economy?
 

And Qatar too. Companies are holding on to hundreds of millions of unpaid invoices and the client is none other than Qatar itself.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Payment is different in KSA. We secured huge advanced payments and then the cycle is about 5 months, we have to ride it for 5 months, explain to the mothership in London that all is OK and then plop. Big chunk comes.

It's certainly a different market but the ambition is spectacular. Probably won't ever be another Dubai, no....but let them have at it for a while so we can all make some money and have a good time before having to return to the mire.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Yes, definitely agree about the women, and now I think the Ministry is clamping down on jobs ads that want 'males only' and that type of nonsense. Should be more and more women entering the workplace and in more senior / influential positions. Get the impression though that overall, the whole Saudisation programme is full of chairwarmers - especially the men. Although I've been here a while now, I can never get over the rather flexible approach to work. As in "I wont be in tomorrow' or the turning up late going early brigade.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

This isn't the Saudi boom though, you've missed that - that was early 2000s when the money was genuinely in the economy. I don't see this as the same, the government has put seed capital into all these developments not full funding, which is dependent on rounds of investors piling in as the works progress. I'm seeing concrete skeletons in the future only.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Maybe, maybe not.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Cagey... :eek:

Re: Dubai economy?
 

I was talking to one of my mates who's out in KSA at the moment and he agrees with the above with regards to it being busy but by no means a boom town. From what he sees they are chucking things out left, right and centre for bids but in his opinion the likelihood is that only a small number of them will amount to anything.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Yes that's what I've seen. Plus the largest contractors in KSA are still releasing staff right now, so it hasn't filtered through. I understand that a certain level of hype has to be created around the projects, and each consultant and PMC etc. that gets signed up starts giving more authenticity and critical mass to the the project actually getting fully invested and built. However like all things Saudi, everything can get pulled at the last moment.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

I noticed a few of my Western connections (mostly in finance) in LinkedIn from back in the day in Abu Dhabi have moved to Riyadh. Working for the PIF, Neom, Qiddiya, etc.

I agree with your regard. When I lived in AUH I went to Riyadh a few times and I didn't find it that different. Naturally they had some of those stupid laws (like women not being allowed to drive) but below that the culture is the same. Reading that Dubai is the Switzerland in the ME and that Riyadh is somehow a shithole is hilarious. Comparing Dubai to Riyadh is probably like comparing London to Manchester. Dubai might be fancier and more international, but it is the same culture after all.

Personally something I like about Riyadh is the weather. I like that dry desert weather compared to the unbearable humid weather in the UAE or anywhere in the Gulf. In winter it even gets chilly so you can live a few months a year without air conditioning 24/7.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Read this back in August: Bloomberg reporting that work on the Al Maktoum airport was put on hold due to sluggish economy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nomies-stumble

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Well, it's about as useful as any other response on here. We're all guessing and repeating stuff from someone else who heard it from the mate of a guy who heard it in the yacht club... :thumbup:

Re: Dubai economy?
 

To be fair to me :) the project funding is exactly how I have described. Most of the project websites actually are clear about how it works, like Amaala for example. https://www.amaala.com/en/about-us/
Nothing wrong with this approach - it's just not as much a sure thing as when the government pours the money directly into the project.
Most of the consultants being described as strategic partners is always something of note - it usually means they are working on a MOU or very early limited contracts and will only be fully engaged when the funding builds up. Again it's a (lower cost) way of establishing the authenticity and trust for investors.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Hey it wasn't a dig at you individually. Just the general stuff with KSA at the moment, there's so much going on it's impossible to know where there's sensible progress, pie in the sky or genuine opportunity.
Some consultants have even paid to become 'partners' to things in the region. Misleading to say the least.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Halt All New Home Construction In Dubai Or Face Economic Disaster, Top Builder Warns

Damac Properties share price, oof!

Re: Dubai economy?
 

Emaar's response to this is lol.

Re: Dubai economy?
 

FT is joining in the fun.

https://www.ft.com/content/3d537bae-...vhl6x3wIskrmn8