BurpusMe

I've been gone from Dubai since 2013 and have been thinking about moving back someday. However have been hearing that the economy is going through tough times. Is it true? How does it compare to 2008/9?

Millhouse

BurpusMe

2008 was a pretty wild time. So many friends got sent home from Dubai. And even stranger, there were suddenly ample parking spaces at every mall. Imagine!!

Seems like a return to Dubai is off the cards, for the time being. Maybe someday!!

scrubbedexpat141

Definitely less drastic than 2008 in terms of cliff edge but it's not great.

Go to Saudi. All roads lead to Riyadh.

nottmbantam

I keep hearing that Saudi is the place to be, but I don't see the evidence of that. Loads of western expats have left and are getting fewer and fewer - seemingly. Most of the companies I've worked for previously are seriously ramping up their Saudisation programmes, The usual tell tale sings are all too apparent - availability on compounds, people at shopping malls, eating out at restaurants etc . Maybe they're all hiding from me.

Millhouse

From our economics subscription:

"National accounts figures released this week showed that Saudi Arabia's economy officially entered recession in Q2 and Qatar's economy shrunk too, all of which supports our below-consensus 2019 GDP growth forecasts for the Gulf economies. Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on Lebanon's dollar peg and while there are reasons to think that the immediate risk of devaluation is small, failure to tighten policy will keep macro imbalances large and leave the currency vulnerable to a shock."

When KSA sinks, the region sinks.

nottmbantam

Sounds about right. KSA seems desperate to divert away from oil revenues and is seriously pushing tourism with the recent launch of the tourist visa and now bringing in more and more entertainment events to attract visitors. I wouldn't have said it was in a recession though.

Millhouse

The issue with calling a recession in somewhere like KSA is that you may not feel it. The oil sector is massive and might be in a recession which will bring the entire GDP numbers down to recession levels - the non-oil sector could be doing just fine in this scenario if it is based on imported tourism etc. but it doesn't move the GDP needle. Usually, they try and split out oil and non-oil parts of the economy.

scrubbedexpat141

It's not necessarily now, but next year and the next decade in KSA. It's the new Dubai, but the entire ****ing place.

Millhouse

Exactly why Dubai is toast.

A few reforms in KSA, some large freezones and Dubai is gone forever. Just as Dubai did to Bahrain. DIFC will be the KIFC... and probably with KFC in the basement.

scrubbedexpat141

Yup.

Thinking it's going to be worth moving that way soon. Be part of the revolution. I missed the boat in Dubai because I'm too young (and cool, obvs), but I can definitely be one of those early ***** who made a fortune by virtue of just being there in the boom time.

DXBtoDOH

I remember back in early 2009, just after the crash, some sob story in the papers about a British expat couple who'd lived in the UAE for 30 years not having the money to pay for the container home and the cheque bounced and the husband was sent to prison till the money could be raised. There were others who also bailed out to avoid debt. So just because you get into a place at the beginning doesn't mean you'll be making your fortune, Mr Scamp.

Besides, what will you do for your local in Saudi? No boozers in the place, apparently.

I daresay some of you are a bit pessimistic about Dubai's long term prospects. It's not Saudi, and it is a virtue.

scrubbedexpat141

I'm not pessimistic about Dubai, this place will continue to be a decent place to be and offer some great opportunities. But in reality the gravy train will end.

There might not be an obvious local in KSA but it's only a matter of time until there are actual watering holes. If wrong then just avoiding a descent into alcoholism or join in at embassy drinks or with home brew if needed. Failing that, a healthier life awaits!

DXBtoDOH

I'm glad you acknowledge there's more to life than boozing

I just find Saudi a difficult nut to crack. The UAE is much more predictable. Higher quality of life. Think of it as a little Switzerland in the region. There's too many factors at play in Saudi for it to turn into a serious competitor to the UAE.

BurpusMe

Wow! Lots of interesting perspectives.

I hope things improve in Dubai, it was such a good place to be 2004-2013, though we were very fortunate to stay employed through the messy years.

Singapore was great 2013-2918 but the market is showing signs of stalling.

Maybe Riyadh is the next port! I've been there many times and actually like it. It's a professional environment, and in some respects underrated. I'm not a huge drinker so that makes no difference to me. I'll investigate, and see if anything is happening in the marketing/communication area I work in.