Tockalosh

No chance of that Norsk, the Shia's would need access to weapons and they dont have them and I dont think the US Navy will allow a ship full of guns from Iran to berth in Mina Salmon.

Stones and molatovs versus well trained soldiers with good weapons. Thats not quite civil war

Tockalosh

Also starting to see the first dribs and drabs of families leaving. All those we know who have gone have been company enforced moves. Nice to see some companies taking an interest in their expatriates

Anyway I see on the home page that Yorkshire tea has a tea van crossing the US giving away free cups to British expatriates. Do you think they would come to Bahrain as we all just need to sit down with a good brew

shiva

ok time to get a few things cleared up here.

in GCC terms this is ****ing huge. let me say that again in GCC terms this is massive. for over 40 yrs every gcc govt has got away scot free with any and all actions they have or wanted to undertake without the need to justify or explain anything to anyone. Domestically nobody in the west gave a damn.

As for Bahrain, in the last few days so far this has led to an meeting of all gcc foreign ministers where only 1 issue was discussed, in the UAE just about every sheikh has met every other in the last 48 hrs. WAM has released numerous stories all aimed at placating any potential local unrest (which would be focused in the northern emirates), Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed has toured the northern emirates met lots of young locals and promised financial support and last but not least a massive 12 in every 1000 emiratis can now vote for half the seats on the FNC. locally this is full on panic mode.

Kuwait is giving money and free food to every national, Saudi has just banned another political party, Oman has had talks with locals etc etc.

Regarding Bahrain, Shias are about 175,000 in total so if 10,000 turn up and protest its a reasonable chunk of the population and remember this is in a part of the world where there is no history of protesting, no culture of public disobedience.

this is huge and the authorities have absolutely no idea what to do other than open fire, categorically the last thing they should be doing but the very idea of negotiating with people they barely see as human is an anathema to them.

Egypt has terrified every government between morocco and India, after decades of buying tear gas and US support it has become apparent that its all for nought if people are willing to walk into bullets to free themselves.

IF this spreads and it just might then the repercussions could be nearly catastrophic for the gulf. Yes in the long run things may be better but there are no opposition parties, no experienced politicians waiting in the wings in any of these countries. We are talking a complete blackhole in regards to viable alternative governments.

domestic unrest is the nightmare scenario for the GCC because there is no solution acceptable to either local govts or the US.

as for all being fine in Bahrain I'll post a few links below and people can draw their own conclusions


one last point, could this happen here?

frankly yes, unlikely for now as they govt has made it clear already that it is in a placating mood but yes it could and it would be fast very fast

(more to follow but i suggest some people read a little more widely on the political situation in the middle east)

shiva

some stuff from the last few days.

these images are disturbing often horrific so you have been warned





http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/op...stof.html?_r=2

http://is.gd/pcfP3w

norsk

Yeah, I heard of at least one British family that is being evacuated today, and apparently they are unlikely to come back. I know they are just caring for their employees, but I still think that is overreacting.

The US embassy rents the villa across from us and the family living there have been gone for a few days already, but you'd kind of expect that. They have special security coming round every morning and evening to do a sweep and check on stuff on a normal day so when there are tanks in the street I would expect them to be gone very quickly.

I'm just hoping it blows over soon as my company are increasingly likely to ask me to move to Saudi (at least for a while) and I'm not sure I can deal with that.

shiva

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/middle-ea...e-blog-bahrain

shiva

on another note, bahrain as a finance centre is finished, it was dying anyway but now its ****ed. own goal by the govt there.

shiva

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/19/op....html?src=tptw

Tockalosh

Thanks for the update on whats going on in the UAE, that is interesting but there is one small point I would challenge

Bahrain does have a very long history of Shia protests and over the years there have been many killed, far more than is this current situation. Previously though it didnt make the sensationalist status that it has this time. The Shia are just jumping on a band wagon to try to achieve their long term goals and these have nothing to do with the repression in Egypt or Tunisia

This really will blow over very quickly here as it has always done.

Norsk, you are safe in Janibiya and the embassy security patrol are Gurkas and everyone is afraid of a Nepali with a Kukri even a hyped up Shia, If you do go to Saudi, can you leave me the keys for your moped as it will be handy for scooting to Al Osra

weasel central

I do think you are overreacting a touch here, I don't know if you are based in Bahrain, if its not first hand experience you are also basing your conclusions on hyped up media.

I have seen this myself in Sana'a where there is no real trouble but it appears on the news like the city is in uproar.

shiva

not based in bahrain but having spoken to bahraini friends a lot so have a vague idea.

as for over reacting how? is this a shitstorm that could destabilize the gulf, yes?

is it acceptable for govts to open fire on crowds?

as for sanaa i take it you are aware just how precarious the govt is and just how ****ed the economy and social structure in yemen is. FFS saudi invaded last year!

shiva

.

weasel central

this is your opinion not fact, that is my point.

I live in Sana'a working for a Palestinian company I consider myself to be very aware of things down here.

lets tone down the hyperbole just a touch until the hard facts emerge, not just the propaganda

norsk

I would hope so. Janabiya is very quiet, but you never know if they suddenly decide to start going after the expats. Those security dudes definitely look dangerous by the way. They were parked outside my house on Wednesday giving me the evil eye as I was coming home from work.

I think you are absolutely right. This started out as a united Bahrain wanting political reform, but along the way it has been hijacked completely by Al Wefaq and is now back to the same old story of shias protesting and the government cracking down. The only difference is that the outside world is suddenly giving a damn...

I don't have a moped, but I have a push bike if you want to borrow that? Now I'm really confused as to who you are Tockalosh. Give me a hint..

shiva

of course its an opinion, political fact is a near impossibility.

as for toning it down not aware i was hysterical but people should be aware that these arent regular days in the region.