Covid 19

Old Mar 31st 2020, 12:57 pm
  #421  
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by Scamp
Lol at the spraying. I thought the same.

The cost is going to be huge....but not to many people in the UK initially. If you get furloughed for 5 months you've lost a month of salary (assuming 2,500 quid is 80% of your salary, which it must be for many people). That's it. A month of pay, job has been guaranteed, company survived and you've lived off yellow freezer dinners and Netflix for a few months. They'll probably end up paying for it for generations though, the taxes needed to fund such lavish protections are going to hurt.

It's a different story overseas, I do worry about my work and being paid and all those bits. Guess we earn more as part of that balance of risk.

Still, stiff upper lip. Let's hope those models work and that we're already far more infected as a global population than the numbers of confirmed cases say. I imagine it's significantly more but a long way from 70%+. I had a horrid cold over the weekend, still a bit of a cough now but very phlegmy, so not a covid symptom, shame as I want it to get it over with and hope it makes me immune, but also relief because nobody wants to be poorly.
Remember the article I linked to a few weeks back, by the 80 year old American chap and you sneered at it and called him a boomer? (incorrect). If you'd read to the end of the article (which I suspect you didn't) you'd have picked up that the Great Asian Flu of 1957 killed 100,000 Americans. The current American forecasting is now expecting about 100,000 Americans to die from the virus (just down from millions a week or two ago). We have Imperial drastically revising their forecast from 500,000 Brits to 20,000 Brits. And now apparently even lower, with implications we could be peaking in the next two weeks rather than later in the year.

I don't dispute the revised numbers are due to factoring in social distancing, but we are also seeing increasing numbers from the testings showing a higher and higher proportion of virus carriers are asymptomatic. The death rates is falling as we learn more, from the initial 4% figures (how true those initial numbers were we don't know given that WHO is clearly on the Chinese payroll and the Chinese have heavily cooked their figures, the rapid rise of the virus spread in Europe and America in mere weeks means there's absolutely no way the Wuhan figures are accurate). Now the 'experts' are expecting a sub 1% death rate.

The death rate, however, does vary greatly from age segment to age segment and health condition to health condition, with the highest proportion of deaths and highest death rates among the already dying, which does greatly skew the overall picture and fuels the panic in unnecessary ways. It has always been bleedin' obvious to me from day one the approach is to quarantine the elderly, everyone above 70 regardless of health, and the known high-risk younger health cases, till a reliable vaccine or treatment is in place. Government policies should have included directives requiring companies to allow younger workers to work from home if they fell in a high risk category, provide home schooling support for affected families and all that, rather than a one size fits all shutdown that has lasting economic implications. You could add temporary closures of crowded venues like theatres and pubs for a bit but regular shops should be allowed to continue to operate. Most are never as crowded as your typical supermarket is but the supermarkets are still open and there's never stories of virus outbreaks among supermarket staff, are there?

And Millhouse is right. We reopen, and then what? The virus isn't disappearing away. Flattening the curve is like flattening a balloon without trying to puncture it, the air is still in there no matter what you do. Why not try to puncture the balloon but in a very gentle, slow way, a small prick to release the air slowly, accept there will be some unfortunate deaths (which still happens one way or another) but also doesn't bring the world to a screeching halt.
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Old Mar 31st 2020, 1:01 pm
  #422  
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by co durham boy
The Jedi style Dettol spraying in just an elaborate cover for a curfew . A proper one starting in Al Ras tonight with road blocks . God help us when it hits the Marina , not sure how Abbey & Samantha with get their Juice Plus orders out innit !!!

Anyone for a mask ?
I don't think there's any cover up of the fact it's a curfew. The police cars patrolling at night are testament to that. It's lovely though to have the doors open and fresh air in the evening without all the usual racket. I heard a ****ing bird the other day.

I bought masks from Instashop pharmacy the other day as the rules were so unclear on whether you needed one when going out or not. My joke of wearing one to the bathroom after she's been for a wee is wearing thin on her but not me.
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Old Mar 31st 2020, 1:16 pm
  #423  
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by Scamp
I don't think there's any cover up of the fact it's a curfew. The police cars patrolling at night are testament to that. It's lovely though to have the doors open and fresh air in the evening without all the usual racket. I heard a ****ing bird the other day.

I bought masks from Instashop pharmacy the other day as the rules were so unclear on whether you needed one when going out or not. My joke of wearing one to the bathroom after she's been for a wee is wearing thin on her but not me.
Its always been clear on the masks mate , its just that people would rather ask Karen on Facebook . It's amazing how so many people turn into total imbeciles so quickly .
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Old Mar 31st 2020, 1:32 pm
  #424  
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
The virus isn't disappearing away. Flattening the curve is like flattening a balloon without trying to puncture it, the air is still in there no matter what you do. Why not try to puncture the balloon but in a very gentle, slow way, a small prick to release the air slowly, accept there will be some unfortunate deaths (which still happens one way or another) but also doesn't bring the world to a screeching halt.
A lot of people are patting themselves on the back that they "understand" what flatten the curve means. Half of them though think that flatten the curve means the virus will "disappear", "beaten", "banished".etc

They are either oblivious or pretending to be so, to the fact that the virus will still be there, in fact flattening the curve is all about increasing the time period the virus continues to be around and causes damage

Those are the people saying stuff like "the earlier we lock down, the earlier we can beat this virus"

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Old Mar 31st 2020, 1:37 pm
  #425  
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Default Re: Covid 19

There is a new phenomenon I have noticed among people quarantined

Those under either voluntary, or enforced lockdown are extremely angry that others are not following their guidelines.
For e.g. walking within a compound is ok if you keep your distance, but those in our community who have decided to actually lock themselves inside (and claim they have not gone out even for shopping for 2+ weeks), are enraged at people walking outside. They keep posting the same Gulf News piece which was more of an advisory that people should not "exercise" outdoors and say no one should be walking at all.

I think it is a combination of having too much time currently on their hands, and the stress from not going out for 2 weeks, and also spending half their watching youtube videos on the virus
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Old Mar 31st 2020, 2:01 pm
  #426  
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by co durham boy
Its always been clear on the masks mate , its just that people would rather ask Karen on Facebook . It's amazing how so many people turn into total imbeciles so quickly .
Ah, but there was an announcement that anyone leaving the house would need to wear one and that only wear one if you're sick or have any sort of cough etc. Then a day or two later it was cleared up. But yeah, the shit things I bought are good for a gag and not much more.

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
Remember the article I linked to a few weeks back, by the 80 year old American chap and you sneered at it and called him a boomer? (incorrect). If you'd read to the end of the article (which I suspect you didn't) ......
Stopped reading properly at this point. Skimmed the rest. Assuming you're just agreeing with me on something so I can finish the day nicely
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Old Mar 31st 2020, 5:55 pm
  #427  
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Default Re: Covid 19

I saw one worn over the top of a burka today in Downtown, which I thought was a good effort.

they should just call a curfew a curfew. Might concentrate minds a bit.
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Old Apr 1st 2020, 4:22 am
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by Cypselos
I saw one worn over the top of a burka today in Downtown, which I thought was a good effort.

they should just call a curfew a curfew. Might concentrate minds a bit.
looks like it’s coming.
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Old Apr 1st 2020, 5:23 am
  #429  
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by Cypselos
I saw one worn over the top of a burka today in Downtown, which I thought was a good effort.

they should just call a curfew a curfew. Might concentrate minds a bit.
Cypselostradamus
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Old Apr 1st 2020, 5:33 am
  #430  
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by Millhouse
I was never in denial about the mass hysteria and the over-response to this, nor how there is no obvious end to it now that the media has whipped everyone up into a state of perpetual fear over it. I am in justifiable denial about the seriousness of the issue: most models are saying 70-80% of populations will get it. That means 3 people in my house of 4 will probably get it. .
Couple of points:
1) At an infection of rate of 2.5 (current view), herd immunity kicks in at about 60% population infection. Your aim should be to be in the 40% who don't get it. If lock downs are kept in place long enough (I'm not saying that they should be, or that that is the strategy) then the R0 will have to come down because infected people aren't able to spread the disease. Obviously as soon as the lock down is dropped, R0 will rise again, all else being equal (which hopefully it won't be).
2) If one person in your house gets it, you most likely all will. Data from China and Italy shows that infection spreads rapidly through household clusters.

Incidentally, my tin foil model is still in line with what's actually happening and I haven't adjusted the assumptions for about 10 days. Top worst impacted countries outside China in decreasing order of impact: Netherlands, Spain, France, Italy, UK, US, Portugal. Portugal is the outlier here at the moment.

Last edited by csdf; Apr 1st 2020 at 5:35 am.
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Old Apr 1st 2020, 6:03 am
  #431  
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by csdf
Couple of points:
1) At an infection of rate of 2.5 (current view), herd immunity kicks in at about 60% population infection. Your aim should be to be in the 40% who don't get it. If lock downs are kept in place long enough (I'm not saying that they should be, or that that is the strategy) then the R0 will have to come down because infected people aren't able to spread the disease. Obviously as soon as the lock down is dropped, R0 will rise again, all else being equal (which hopefully it won't be).
2) If one person in your house gets it, you most likely all will. Data from China and Italy shows that infection spreads rapidly through household clusters.

Incidentally, my tin foil model is still in line with what's actually happening and I haven't adjusted the assumptions for about 10 days. Top worst impacted countries outside China in decreasing order of impact: Netherlands, Spain, France, Italy, UK, US, Portugal. Portugal is the outlier here at the moment.
Sounds good - let's hope all this fizzles out soon... just like Zika did.
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Old Apr 1st 2020, 6:07 am
  #432  
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by Scamp
Cypselostradamus

Lol, apparently not given my rather bullish predictions 4 weeks ago. Don't I look silly now.
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Old Apr 1st 2020, 6:30 am
  #433  
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by csdf
Your aim should be to be in the 40% who don't get it.
Amen. So many people are captain casual about it. I don't want to be poorly, whether mild or not. Just don't want the germ.

Originally Posted by Cypselos
Lol, apparently not given my rather bullish predictions 4 weeks ago. Don't I look silly now.
You had the balls to make a prediction, just think of it like that.
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Old Apr 1st 2020, 12:19 pm
  #434  
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by Scamp
Ah, but there was an announcement that anyone leaving the house would need to wear one and that only wear one if you're sick or have any sort of cough etc. Then a day or two later it was cleared up. But yeah, the shit things I bought are good for a gag and not much more.



Stopped reading properly at this point. Skimmed the rest. Assuming you're just agreeing with me on something so I can finish the day nicely
You're becoming the new Scot at this point. afraid to read anything that might disagree with your preconceived viewpoints because you don't like being challenged. How big is your safe space these days, Scamp?

Speaking of which, it looks like Scot hasn't posted in a while. Has he already succumbed to the virus?
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Old Apr 1st 2020, 12:44 pm
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Default Re: Covid 19

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
You're becoming the new Scot at this point. afraid to read anything that might disagree with your preconceived viewpoints because you don't like being challenged. How big is your safe space these days, Scamp?

Speaking of which, it looks like Scot hasn't posted in a while. Has he already succumbed to the virus?
Doubtful. The alcohol in the blood would kill it off.
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