scrubbedexpat141

The more I think about it, the more I reckon the people who are the ones who don't believe it or think it's a sham or think it's overblown and are continuing as if everything is fine are probably the ones who aren't working, being paid regardless, probably for a business that's going to survive thanks to grants but regardless, they are protected from losing their job during this whilst also taking a mortgage holiday, fighting over bog rolls in the supermarket and stockpiling pasta they don't know how to cook.

BEVS

Is that just a Middle East thing you are talking about?

It doesn't hold water for NZ from what I have seen , read, heard. Nor for the UK.

Millhouse

From my perspective, I see the opposite - my self employed friends all think this is a bucket of shit and they are carrying on as normal, those in ivory towers and comfortable semi-government jobs are shitting themselves and have stopped all work to hunker down (this is a great excuse). I'd say that expats are usually the most vulnerable, and there is clearly a mixed set of feelings about the whole thing on this group.

Interestingly my Japanese investors [very protected jobs] are working as hard and all hours as normal. In our investee companies, I'm seeing CEOs running around to save businesses and raise emergency funds to protect their companies and jobs. They are certainly carrying on.

Out of interest, what are recruiters doing at the moment? Fielding inbound calls and building up the candidate book? I assume there isn't much happening on the other side.

We are busy(ish) trying to arrange emergy funding lines and getting updates from investee companies.

scrubbedexpat141

No, UK.
I imagine the people whinging about the restrictions are probably well looked after by the phenomenal levels the government have gone to in protecting employment and businesses and sat on a throne of hoarded bog roll.
You just know the types, the Karen's of the world. They've probably visited Grandparents at the weekend too and are only worried about a week in Majorca in April they've got booked.

Millhouse

Do you realise that these activities won't really limit the total number but only reduce the pace of it... ie it goes on for longer? This squashing the sombre simply delays stuff. The area under the graph [the number of people infected] stays the same. All this is actually doing is giving the healthcare system a chance [and not a guarantee given how stretched it is] to keep up. The harsh reality is those that were going to die, will probably still die.

scrubbedexpat141

Dunno what they're doing but lets hope you don't need one soon.
We are trying to look at this as an opportunity - restock, reset and establish some better practices. Implement some stuff that's desperately needed doing from what I can work out. I'm working harder than normal, I'm only a month into a new company and don't really want to just get canned for being a new boy.
The challenge is the UK / European part of the EMEA region is in full panic mode and cash is absolute king. Where can it be saved and trimmed to survive.
The MENA part is better placed, there's more still happening here, as long as clients stay open to some extent we might keep getting paid and keep people busy earning fees.
I think the long run of money making that organisations have had means there's a responsibility to employees to not just be zinging people everywhere, but that's communism, probably.
Being self employed is tough regardless. I'm sure they've spent a lot of years banking the extra money they've earned though? The lower tax rate and tax breaks means they must have excellent emergency funds.

Let's not bother then. Let it spike and see how many more die because care isn't available, **** it.

Millhouse

Me too, although that was always increasingly going to be case before covid. COVID will either save me or kill me off in this job/region.

They don't have war chest - UK is expensive and it's highly competitive. I'd be surprised if there are more than 3 months available - the same for any other Brit. They also employ others.

scrubbedexpat141

It's a shitty stick for anyone to hold unfortunately. The government seem to be working their way around every avenue to support people though. The future MiL is a childminder and seems to be establishing a way to get support. The future FiL is self employed in the licensed trade so is going to dig into savings and is currently helping his pharmacist partner to keep going. If people need help it really does look like the government is trying what it can to help at the moment. Middle class, self employed 'business consultant' worried they aren't getting their 600 quid a day is the kind I was referring to as having at least an emergency fund stashed away thanks to their lucrative earnings. I still feel sorry for them if they're out of work, obviously, but there are arguably more worrying situations.

There is light at the end of the tunnel though, humans can't go into lockdown indefinitely, there will end up being a resurgence of optimism and desire to just get on with it all and realisation that controlled activity is possible and needed. The posts and information coming out of China after 7 weeks locked down are really encouraging that normality does come back in, but with a heavy dose of being sensible.

I imagine the average Brit who was by the seaside at the weekend not giving a **** wouldn't enjoy the scenes in Italy of the army shifting the hundreds of filled coffins out the city. Dramatic, yes, but without people being responsible it'll be the same everywhere potentially.

NorthernLad

Spot on...I think a lot of people haven't grasped that the whole idea is to delay the spread just for health services to try to survive.
Let's say the UK has 65 million people, with no idea of who is infected, or who has had it and recovered (and its still almost impossible to say if people have just got a normal cold or COVID-19 due to the way in how it manifests itself, some people have very mild symptoms).
So after however many weeks of lockdown we have, there will almost certainly still be people out there with it - its a nasty virus and will be doing everything it can to survive and spread. My parents are high risk, it's a huge concern for us and them but the reality is that if they catch this, any recovery is far from guaranteed.
I'm still seeing expats in the UAE being heavily critical of the UK's response compared to the UAE, the size and density of the population of each country alone means two very different situations, not even going into laws of the land (and how easy it is to force people into certain behaviors). The joys of democracy.

nonthaburi

Potentially worse in the uk. UK is currently on a steeper death curve than Italy. 2 factors to note as well.
1) Even though Italy has an older population, UK curve is still steeper.
2) Italy went into lockdown at an earlier stage.

Whether the rate of deaths continues at the same pace remains to be seen.

Is also worth remembering that even though people use the argument that only old, unhealthy people are going to die, which isn't true BTW, but even if it was, it doesn't alter the fact the people are still having heart attacks , strokes, car accidents, falling over, stabbing each other etc.

The more overworked the health services are dealing with C19 patients, the less able they are to deal with non C19 patients, and more non C19 patients will die too, when they wouldn't otherwise have done so.

The flatter the curve, the better for everyone. Maybe not in your pocket but 3-4 months isn't the end of the world.

scrubbedexpat141

Absolutely spot on. A few weeks not going out and about being a whopper will make a massive difference to the situation. Why this is even queried is beyond me.

Millhouse

Why this isn't being questioned and challenged, is also beyond me.

scrubbedexpat141

What do you mean? I don't think I was perhaps clear enough.

I was saying that I think some social distancing and people being more isolated, for a relatively short period of time is likely to mean in a lower number of infected people in the immediate periods and and potentially ease the strain on services.

If that's being queried, I'd be keen to know what the other ideas are or suggestions or techniques or plays or whatever that aren't based on people being near fewer people. I'm sure most governments would too

Edit to add: I might have misread your post completely btw.

Miss Ann Thrope

It's not just about the health service being overwhelmed, though that is the biggest issue. But if huge numbers of people are sick, then the workforce for critical jobs will be severely depleted. Without a quorum of qualified and trained workers, how are power generation and water treatment plants going to operate? How is food going to be picked, slaughtered, packed, distributed and sold? And medicines and medical supplies manufactured and distributed? Any disruption to even a part of these activities will be catastrophic and trigger real panic, not just pasta stockpiling. And then there's the police and army. The 2011 London riots shows how easily law and order can break down and how difficult it will be to restore, especially with depleted forces.

Flattening the curve buys precious time to increase the capacity of the health services and build additional stockpiles of critical supplies. It also prevents people getting ill until a time when there may be better treatments and ultimately a vaccine available. It's not delaying the inevitable, it's avoiding a cliff-edge until we have found the road out.

csdf

The stats suggest that 80% of people will have mild symptoms. That's spread across the whole population. The working age population is probably going to have a higher %; so whilst businesses will have to contend with increased absenteeism, the estimates are for a peak of 20-30% in an uncontrolled situation. This is a number that can be planned for and managed. It's not great, but it's not apocalyptic.