Originally Posted by Maxima

Most people cheering for lockdowns tend to be
1) Financially self sufficient or will not be losing their jobs
2) Assuming every single country will become like North Italy and Wuhan

Korea and Singapore and Japan all somehow handled cases without shutting down the economy, but they are ignored the by the "shut the economy" crowd

And then you got all these people on social media praising the clear skies and calling for lockdowns to be made permanent so we can all stay at home, sing in our balconies, and admire the clear blue skies (and carry a piece of paper whenever leaving home)

If a country faces a situation like Italy or Wuhan (which very few are, maybe France and Spain, and certainly not the US outside of NYC), then lockdowns work.

Otherwise, what you need is to stop gatherings (parties, sports, schools), and to strictly trace contacts of positive people and quarantine them

The reason so many places locked down is not because people walking outside is lethal, as so many stayhomers are pretending, its because a subset of the population cannot be trusted to not socialize in crowded places if allowed to do so

Originally Posted by Maxima

If a country faces a situation like Italy or Wuhan (which very few are, maybe France and Spain, and certainly not the US outside of NYC), then lockdowns work.

Originally Posted by thebadger

Just been recalled to the UK.

Assuming I am not getting punted off site, which who knows how this will go, how will this affect my tax situation?

I am non-resident status and been here 7 weeks now, but anticipating 5-6-7-8 weeks at home. I anticipate being here until winter 2021.

Originally Posted by MyAccountant

For clients, their families and their colleagues who are not resident in the UK, a change in their travel plans could have an adverse tax effect. It could mean that the number of days spent in the UK at midnight or the number of days spent working in the UK for 3 hours or more may breach the number of days present or the number of workdays allowed under the Statutory Residence Test (SRT). If that happens the advantageous status of being not resident in the UK for tax purposes could be lost for 2019/20 and possibly for prior and subsequent UK tax years. More UK workdays could also increase a UK tax liability even if the SRT day limits are not breached.

For individuals who left the UK in 2019/20 or who are already not resident in the UK, please note that there is no relaxation in the SRT rules at present if you spend more non-work days or more work days in the UK as a result of a COVID-19 issue. Extra days spent in the UK at midnight would not qualify as exceptional circumstances. If not resident in the UK and if you are affected by a COVID-19 travel issue, consider avoiding extra time in the UK. Also consider avoiding carrying out work for 3 hours or more in a day in the UK.I have attached the HMRC Guidance RDR3 which covers the SRT rules. Exceptional circumstances are covered from page 96. HMRC refer to FCO advice on page 100. The UK Government travel advice and COVID-19 updates are here https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice and the FCO travel advice link is on each country’s page. Para B17 on page 100 of RDR3 states that it is only when the FCO advice is ‘avoid all travel to the region’ that the exceptional circumstances test is met. Being under enforced quarantine in the UK is not directly addressed in RDR3, and guidance may or may not be issued on this later.

Originally Posted by Scamp

What's most fun is scanning facebook and seeing all the guff about kids being at home and studying.

I've never known a group of humans to be such walking, talking contradictions as parents are. Literally non stop moaning about how shit kids are and how they're such little ***** to survive alongside.......yet when you laugh or join in and agree that they're kids are pure scum?
Oh god, you get the full berries wrath of how wonderful kids are, with a side order or doubt and slathered in deceit-syrup.

Originally Posted by carcajou

Surely your wife, as a teacher, has told you a few stories over the years?

Originally Posted by Miss Ann Thrope

You need to think it through a bit more I'm afraid. Without severe containment, you will get almost half of the population sick at one time: ALL the expert epidemiological models predict at least this - some indicate much higher levels and most of the assumptions used have proven to be conservative e.g. average number of people infected by any given carrier now looks to be more than six where most models assume between two and three. A large number of these, including younger people, will be severely ill even if they don't die. With not enough people to perform essential work, not only will you no longer have a functioning economy, you won't have a functioning society (no power, no food, no police, no hospitals....).

That's why every conceivable measure has to be taken to delay the spread and maintain infections at a (barely) manageable level, which is estimated at 20% increase in cases per day, which is just about where we are in most countries now. And that's just to keep par with what has happened in Italy...

Originally Posted by FriendlyExpat

What you're perhaps overlooking is (i) the vast chasm of uncertainty in the modelling (current predictions could be out by orders of magnitude either way) and (ii) the Imperial College modelling looks at numbers of Covid-19 deaths but not overall deaths / other harms. I'm not scared of the virus, but I am scared of what is being done to stop the virus.

Originally Posted by csdf

I built a model that forecasts which countries are more likely to be like Italy or Wuhan. Nothing particularly sophisticated, just a blend of social characteristics, urbanisation levels and demographics. Top of the list include Spain, France, UK and the US. The GCC actually looks OK, thanks to a combination of very young populations and higher levels of government ability/willingness to impose top-down measures.

Originally Posted by nonthaburi

So just curious, but what would you do differently to pretty much every country in the world affected right now. By this I mean the social distancing, travel bans, WFH, curfew, nightlife closures, shop closures etc. All the measures that most places that have a problem have introduced, or are introducing to varying degrees.

If you don't think any of these measures are worth it, what do you suggest?

Originally Posted by Millhouse

Everyone loves a spreadsheet and you can take extra comfort in the fact that yours is just as accurate and thought out as the ones the governments around the world are using to make their policy decisions on covid.

Originally Posted by FriendlyExpat

Social distancing, working from home (where feasible) and hand washing are sensible and anything else we can think of to limit the spread. I'm against travel bans, closures and curfews.

Originally Posted by Millhouse

that’s proper tin foil face mask stuff... which I love. Everyone loves a spreadsheet and you can take extra comfort in the fact that yours is just as accurate and thought out as the ones the governments around the world are using to make their policy decisions on covid.