Bird Flu
Oct 16th 2005, 7:11 pm
#1
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Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Dubai
Posts: 7,650
Bird Flu
So is it that we are just not getting the same media hype here or are we more laid back about it? My friends in UK are paranoid about it all - so much so - one asked me to go the pharmacy to see if I could get her a particular drug before I went back last week just to have it at home - in case 
Any thoughts?
Any thoughts?
Oct 16th 2005, 7:26 pm
#2
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Posts: 7,263
Re: Bird Flu
Originally Posted by Fairydust
So is it that we are just not getting the same media hype here or are we more laid back about it? My friends in UK are paranoid about it all - so much so - one asked me to go the pharmacy to see if I could get her a particular drug before I went back last week just to have it at home - in case Any thoughts?
Any thoughts?I am currently providing consultancy to a global company to ammend their business continuity plans to mitigate the risks of avain flu. (Major Pandemic Outbreak Plan)
The last time the H5N1 virus mutated to be communicable between humans was the spanish flu pandemic of 1918. 50 million people died.
(6,000,000 people died in a 12 week period alone!!.)
The next time will be worse.
a. Global travel will propogate the virus quicker than in 1918
b. More confined living area's than in 1918 (apartments/flats etc)
People argue that we have better vaccinations that before.. wrong.
The vaccine cannot be developed until the virus has mutated from bird->human transfer to human->human transfer.
Once they have indentified it, it will be six months before a vaccine will be out.
The current vaccine that people are rushing out for (tamiflu) is just for generic flu and will offer zero protection against h5n1.
I have been liasing with the CDC (centre of disease control) and the WHO to get information. Believe me that it is a very real threat, and if anything it is being played down by the media.
All the major authorities have stated that it is a case of WHEN not IF.
I would anticipate at least 50 million deaths if the virus mutates. If it combines with normal flu and becomes transmissable then it will not be as bad, but still a major health threat.
I can assure you that most major fortune 500 companies either have plans or are drafting plans to reduce their exposure.
These include:
Split site/split shift working
work from home feasability studies
work redirection to other offices (US,India,Aus etc)
If anyone wants to know more information let me know.
Rgds
JD
Oct 16th 2005, 7:29 pm
#3
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Thread Starter
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Dubai
Posts: 7,650
Re: Bird Flu
Originally Posted by Jammy_Dodgers
Indeed,
I am currently providing consultancy to a global company to ammend their business continuity plans to mitigate the risks of avain flu. (Major Pandemic Outbreak Plan)
The last time the H5N1 virus mutated to be communicable between humans was the spanish flu pandemic of 1918. 50 million people died.
(6,000,000 people died in a 12 week period alone!!.)
The next time will be worse.
a. Global travel will propogate the virus quicker than in 1918
b. More confined living area's than in 1918 (apartments/flats etc)
People argue that we have better vaccinations that before.. wrong.
The vaccine cannot be developed until the virus has mutated from bird->human transfer to human->human transfer.
Once they have indentified it, it will be six months before a vaccine will be out.
The current vaccine that people are rushing out for (tamiflu) is just for generic flu and will offer zero protection against h5n1.
I have been liasing with the CDC (centre of disease control) and the WHO to get information. Believe me that it is a very real threat, and if anything it is being played down by the media.
All the major authorities have stated that it is a case of WHEN not IF.
I would anticipate at least 50 million deaths if the virus mutates. If it combines with normal flu and becomes transmissable then it will not be as bad, but still a major health threat.
I can assure you that most major fortune 500 companies either have plans or are drafting plans to reduce their exposure.
These include:
Split site/split shift working
work from home feasability studies
work redirection to other offices (US,India,Aus etc)
If anyone wants to know more information let me know.
Rgds
JD
I am currently providing consultancy to a global company to ammend their business continuity plans to mitigate the risks of avain flu. (Major Pandemic Outbreak Plan)
The last time the H5N1 virus mutated to be communicable between humans was the spanish flu pandemic of 1918. 50 million people died.
(6,000,000 people died in a 12 week period alone!!.)
The next time will be worse.
a. Global travel will propogate the virus quicker than in 1918
b. More confined living area's than in 1918 (apartments/flats etc)
People argue that we have better vaccinations that before.. wrong.
The vaccine cannot be developed until the virus has mutated from bird->human transfer to human->human transfer.
Once they have indentified it, it will be six months before a vaccine will be out.
The current vaccine that people are rushing out for (tamiflu) is just for generic flu and will offer zero protection against h5n1.
I have been liasing with the CDC (centre of disease control) and the WHO to get information. Believe me that it is a very real threat, and if anything it is being played down by the media.
All the major authorities have stated that it is a case of WHEN not IF.
I would anticipate at least 50 million deaths if the virus mutates. If it combines with normal flu and becomes transmissable then it will not be as bad, but still a major health threat.
I can assure you that most major fortune 500 companies either have plans or are drafting plans to reduce their exposure.
These include:
Split site/split shift working
work from home feasability studies
work redirection to other offices (US,India,Aus etc)
If anyone wants to know more information let me know.
Rgds
JD
Oct 16th 2005, 7:30 pm
#4
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Thread Starter
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Dubai
Posts: 7,650
Re: Bird Flu
Don't scare me more - hubby brought back mail & times from Uk today and its made me paranoid after reading them!!!!!!!! 
Oct 16th 2005, 7:32 pm
#5
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Joined: Oct 2004
Location: I'm global baby!!!!!!
Posts: 7,263
Re: Bird Flu
Originally Posted by Fairydust
Oh FFS you are obviously in the playground of the imaginative!!!!!!!!
Oct 16th 2005, 7:34 pm
#6
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Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 3,889
Re: Bird Flu
I've been told to get vaccinated against flu as going to be in Germany next month. Doubt it makes too much difference though - the 'pandemic' is expected to arise if a person with a 'common' strain of flu also contracts avian flu and a hybrid emerges that passes easily between humans, this could well be immune to current vaccines. Any new vaccines will take some time to develop and produce in mass quantites (production methods still date back to 1950s, could take a few months). Also avian flu doesn't seem to care too much about the age of it's victims, so not just the very young and old at risk. Incidently, the 1918 flu outbreak (some estimates of deaths run up to 100 million people) is attributed to a form of avian flu). 
Oct 16th 2005, 7:34 pm
#7
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Re: Bird Flu
Originally Posted by Jammy_Dodgers
On a personel level...my sanity has been questioned many times, however, with regards to the topic of the thread, i can assure you, to the best of my knowledge this is all true.
Oct 16th 2005, 7:36 pm
#8
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Posts: 7,650
Re: Bird Flu
Originally Posted by NorthernLad
I've been told to get vaccinated against flu as going to be in Germany next month. Doubt it makes too much difference though - the 'pandemic' is expected to arise if a person with a 'common' strain of flu also contracts avian flu and a hybrid emerges that passes easily between humans, this could well be immune to current vaccines. Any new vaccines will take some time to develop and produce in mass quantites (production methods still date back to 1950s, could take a few months). Also avian flu doesn't seem to care too much about the age of it's victims, so not just the very young and old at risk. Incidently, the 1918 flu outbreak (some estimates of deaths run up to 100 million people) is attributed to a form of avian flu).
Oct 16th 2005, 7:39 pm
#9
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Joined: Oct 2004
Location: I'm global baby!!!!!!
Posts: 7,263
Re: Bird Flu
Originally Posted by Fairydust
Oh bloody hell don't say that - did you read that prisoners in UK were going to have the vaccine before UK residents - when available !!!!!!!
All public transport will be stopped.
Schools and public buildings will be closed.
Travel restrictions applied
With a rough estimate of 35% infection rate, many many people will be off with the flu, those that dont have the disease will stay at home because of the fear of the disease.
Petrol supplies will run short, Shops/malls will be shut etc etc.
The implications are far reaching
Oct 16th 2005, 7:39 pm
#10
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 10,461
Re: Bird Flu
Im getting into the piggy bank....Just in case....
Oct 16th 2005, 7:40 pm
#11
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 10,461
Re: Bird Flu
Originally Posted by Jammy_Dodgers
The goverment have lots of plans drawn up.
All public transport will be stopped.
Schools and public buildings will be closed.
Travel restrictions applied
With a rough estimate of 35% infection rate, many many people will be off with the flu, those that dont have the disease will stay at home because of the fear of the disease.
Petrol supplies will run short, Shops/malls will be shut etc etc.
The implications are far reaching
All public transport will be stopped.
Schools and public buildings will be closed.
Travel restrictions applied
With a rough estimate of 35% infection rate, many many people will be off with the flu, those that dont have the disease will stay at home because of the fear of the disease.
Petrol supplies will run short, Shops/malls will be shut etc etc.
The implications are far reaching
Is this the doomsday scenario?????
Oct 16th 2005, 7:41 pm
#12
Up in the air
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: I'm global baby!!!!!!
Posts: 7,263
Re: Bird Flu
Originally Posted by NorthernLad
I've been told to get vaccinated against flu as going to be in Germany next month. Doubt it makes too much difference though - the 'pandemic' is expected to arise if a person with a 'common' strain of flu also contracts avian flu and a hybrid emerges that passes easily between humans, this could well be immune to current vaccines. Any new vaccines will take some time to develop and produce in mass quantites (production methods still date back to 1950s, could take a few months). Also avian flu doesn't seem to care too much about the age of it's victims, so not just the very young and old at risk. Incidently, the 1918 flu outbreak (some estimates of deaths run up to 100 million people) is attributed to a form of avian flu).
Correct, an Inuit woman was found in the permafrost of Alaska. The spanish flu was found in her, and it seems to be based on H5n1..which is why everyone is getting a bit ansy
Oct 16th 2005, 7:42 pm
#13
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Joined: Oct 2004
Location: I'm global baby!!!!!!
Posts: 7,263
Re: Bird Flu
Originally Posted by shoushou
Im getting into the piggy bank....Just in case....
Oct 16th 2005, 7:44 pm
#14
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Thread Starter
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Dubai
Posts: 7,650
Re: Bird Flu
Originally Posted by Jammy_Dodgers
The goverment have lots of plans drawn up.
All public transport will be stopped.
Schools and public buildings will be closed.
Travel restrictions applied
With a rough estimate of 35% infection rate, many many people will be off with the flu, those that dont have the disease will stay at home because of the fear of the disease.
Petrol supplies will run short, Shops/malls will be shut etc etc.
The implications are far reaching
All public transport will be stopped.
Schools and public buildings will be closed.
Travel restrictions applied
With a rough estimate of 35% infection rate, many many people will be off with the flu, those that dont have the disease will stay at home because of the fear of the disease.
Petrol supplies will run short, Shops/malls will be shut etc etc.
The implications are far reaching
My comment was how come we have not heard the implications here!!!!!
Oct 16th 2005, 7:45 pm
#15
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Thread Starter
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Dubai
Posts: 7,650
Re: Bird Flu
Originally Posted by shoushou
Are you talking about real life here????
Is this the doomsday scenario?????
Is this the doomsday scenario?????