scrubbedexpat091

One theory I saw posted was the possibility of an uncontained engine failure sending fragments into the wing and piercing the fuel tank and the photos apparently showing shrapnel damage could be caused by an uncontained engine failure. Passengers have been killed before in such failures when pieces of the engine have pierced through the cabin, so could certainly be a possibility.

If maintenance was done on that engine in the most recent maintenance work, it would certainly be a good starting point.

I wonder if Iran will let CFM (the engine maker) assist, its a joint venture between a US and French company, but if it is an engine issue, they will likely need some assistance from the maker of the engine, kind of hard to investigate such an accident without any assistance from the companies involved.

Boeing's very short press release on the crash.

January 8, 2020 - This is a tragic event and our heartfelt thoughts are with the crew, passengers, and their families. We are in contact with our airline customer and stand by them in this difficult time. We are ready to assist in any way needed.

scrubbedexpat099

Unconfirmed but this photo has been circulating.

BristolUK

It looks like one of those trays that meat is packed in at the supermarket.

Partially discharged

Interesting colour of meat that they have in Moncton. Based on that colour, your supermarket meat may have passed its sell by date

mikelincs

Reports circulating just now say that it may have been the Iranians shooting it down by mistake.

magnumpi

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thes...s-experts/amp/

plane had holes all over it !!!

caretaker

This should be an easy one. Someone will be a SAM short in their inventory, the airport radar should have a missile launch recorded on it coinciding with the crash, and the US, which probably has Teheran under constant satellite surveillance should have a picture of the launch.
Also, witnesses who saw it coming down should come forward describing how they were alerted to the disaster overhead by the sound of the warhead exploding.

Oakvillian

It's all a bit odd, isn't it? Several knowledgeable commentators have pointed out that even the most catastrophic uncontained engine failure would be unlikely to render the aircraft uncontrollable to this extent. And even in the most extreme circumstances, flight crew have been able to get a mayday message out - but there was no communication of any kind from this flight after whatever happened.

Some of the more gruesome speculation seems a bit misplaced. The grainy video-still image that gave rise to comments about the fuselage being full of holes, turns out to have been the shadows cast by a load of pebbles and other debris scattered by ground impact. And as for the picture of the guidance head of a missile that Boiler (oh, how surprising) posted up-thread, there has been no context, location, date or anything else surrounding that image, so while it can't be discounted, it certainly can't be relied upon.

IMO it seems likeliest that this was a combination of several events. Somebody on ppRuNe.org (a fascinating forum, and coincidentally another part of the Internet Brands empire that owns BE) set out a potential timeline of engine failure -> fire -> aircraft turning back towards airport -> suspicious intense heat signature -> misidentification as inbound threat -> missile launch. That would be almost understandable, but no less dreadful.

scrubbedexpat099

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system

This is the missile system that seems to be getting the focus.

Pulaski

Plausible, but doesn't explain the lack of communication from the cockpit, as there would be some time, at least a minute or two, between the first signs of a fire and the missile strike if the plane had turned around and was heading back to Tehran. .... Or perhaps the engine fire was immediately misidentifed as a missile, i.e. every step of the proposed time line was omitted except for the first and the last two?

magnumpi

but the engine fire, would it not trigger a mayday call

Ground to air missile don’t actually hit planes, they explode close by, maybe in front of the plane taking out the cabin

scrubbedexpat099

There is a guy on YouTube called Mentour that produces some very good stuff and flies these so will be interesting to see his take.

But lets say you have just been hit by a missile, which does not mean a physical hit by its body, an engine has gone out, various other critical systems have gone down, sounds like there was a major fire, pretty much every warning light and buzzer is going off, communicate is well down your list of actions.

Quote:

And as for the picture of the guidance head of a missile that Boiler (oh, how surprising) posted up-thread, there has been no context, location, date or anything else surrounding that image, so while it can't be discounted, it certainly can't be relied upon.

I mentioned that this was unconfirmed and where did I see it, PPRUNE.

Jingsamichty

The flight was also delayed by 70 minutes before taking off... perhaps some military units were not aware of the delay and thought that the "unexpected" aircraft was hostile?

Oakvillian

The scheduled take-off time was only an hour after the Iranian missile launches, wasn't it? I'd be unsurprised to learn that there was an unofficially declared ground hold at Tehran airport for a couple of hours while that played out. Anyone know if there were other aircraft movements into/out of Imam Khomeini airport in the hour before the Ukrainian flight took off?

Pulaski

They don't need to hit the plane, but a direct strike is possible, just not "necessary" to bring the target down.