Shard

What percentage correction are you anticipating from peak (now that a peak has been established)?

JamesM

My ambition has always been a bar in the basement with several taps as well as a pool table and/or a dart board.

The swimming pool is an odd thing in Canada with all these lakes around but a hot tub would be nice.

A lot of work though properties. I'm not a hammer and nails guy like yourself. Half the houses around here need a tonne of investment.

I was eyeing a cabin somewhere between Cambridge and Hamilton that had a hot tub which was already quite cheap at $400k but that will be hit hard price wise and no Hooters near by.

I'm also working for a firm in Ottawa where real estate is also quite cheap although winters and entertainment even duller than Toronto.

In conclusion I'll probably continue to take my chances with the stock market and landlords. After almost 13 years here Im still not sure I see Canada as a long term thing.

JamesM

The most over valued real estate in the world propped up by less fundamentals than Bitcoin.

I see endless possibilities.

I think 25 to 35% depending on ones market is best case scenario.

I dont see the covid "gains" surviving.

It could be greater than 50% and/or there could be a decade of little growth if just a few of the various government plans to accelerate homebuilding are successful.

The construction in Toronto is endless, there is plenty of land and not enough people arrive here to sustain the market. The ones that do don't have the salaries or capital to buy a million dollar house with the mortgage rates we are starting to see.

But I'm amazed how blinkered people here are. 30 years of market growth does that. Creates a fallacy of invincibility. Most pricing data in Canada is published by the industry so the spin doesn't help with reality checks.

In conclusion the market is facked for the next 5 to 10 years. I hope I'm wrong but with these things that seldom happens. I look past a market boom when I review history.

I'm also incredibly envious of anyone who sold just before March. I'm curious how TiryTory made out as she was moving back to Wales and their Muskoka house price had gone through the roof. She probably lives in a Castle in Wales now.

dbd33

Oh yes, I also crave the head of a moose on every wall.

I accept that the pool is as much use as a chocolate fireguard, it would just be so I could stand beside it and think "I've got a pool".

Shard

There's an oversupply in Toronto? I thought a few months back you (or someone) was arguing that there is insufficient supply.

It will be interesting to see what happens. If an inflationary envrionment persists for a few years, that may support house prices and would obscure some reductions in real value.

JamesM

These days people put in those naff Infiniti pools. It's not like you can swim lengths for fitness as they are so small. They have next to no value in my eyes.

I'm no stranger to pools at houses. I was born in Zimbabwe and we owned a pool in those days. My family in South Africa all have pools and my brother and wife recently came into a massive massive (typed twice deliberately) inheritance (from her side) and installed a pool at their new mansion near Winchester. They at least have 3 kids and put in a diving board and reasonable size but it's still outdoors and will not likely be used beyond 6 months a year. It makes sense in Africa, parts of Australia and Texas.

One is better off swimming at "The Y" or local rec centre otherwise.

You have a hot tub?

JamesM

Not me.

You could rebuild Toronto 3 times within Toronto. There would be no issues in Toronto at all if the old fashioned apathy towards building public transit died.

dbd33

No, have space, could probably afford one, just never got to it.

bats

giant bowls of human soup

MarkG

Doesn't seem to be making much difference here in Saskatoon due to relatively low prices and tight housing supply, but there are regular price reductions in the acreages that are on my watchlist. In part that's probably because so many pumped up the asking price earlier this year expecting well-paid work-from-home workers to buy it.

Sadly the one we'd like to buy thinks that knocking $20k off the price will be enough to get it to sell when it's been stuck on the market for over a year.

dbd33

Have you made an offer at 90% of what you're willing to pay?